westMJim Posted April 15, 2022 Report Share Posted April 15, 2022 It still looks like mid winter up in Houghton. https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/walker/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2022 Report Share Posted April 15, 2022 I guess you guys in the Midwest have a different view on “summer weather” than I do, haha. Down here in the DC area, we’re guaranteed to roast and sweat almost every summer. Those cold fronts you get in the Midwest usually don’t make it over the Appalachians during the dog days. Last summer, the majority of ridging was focused the west/4-corners region (with plenty of shortwave troughing/severe weather here), yet we still ended up with more than 50 days above 90°F. So I’m perfectly okay with cool, spring weather continuing until the inevitable Bermuda High takeover from July onwards (or sometimes June if it starts early). 3 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted April 15, 2022 Report Share Posted April 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Phil said: I guess you guys in the Midwest have a different view on “summer weather” than I do, haha. Down here in the DC area, we’re guaranteed to roast and sweat almost every summer. Those cold fronts you get in the Midwest usually don’t make it over the Appalachians during the dog days. Last summer, the majority of ridging was focused the west/4-corners region (with plenty of shortwave troughing/severe weather here), yet we still ended up with more than 50 days above 90°F. So I’m perfectly okay with cool, spring weather continuing until the inevitable Bermuda High takeover from July onwards (or sometimes June if it starts early). I grew up near Frederick maryland and it was there on my gramps farm i developed a love for weather and climate. You are correct. In SE Iowa we get occasional nice cold fronts thru the summer months. Nights in upper 50s do occur. But i will say this, Ive seen many more horrible 95 to 109 degree days than in Maryland! In 2012 i recorded easily 50 to 60 90 degree days and 15 to 18 days over 100! And the biggest misconception of folks from south and east is it isnt humid here!! I regularly compare my dewpoint with Maryland, florida and other locations it will shock you! 75 to 83 high dewpoints ARE WAY TOO COMMON HERE! last summer I recorded a 84 and a local airport was 85 dewpoint!!! It can get crazy humid and hot here and simply WIL NOT RAIN! In Mid-Atlantic almost all of the peak hot and humid days bring widespread thunderstorms. There simply isnt any lift here frequently to create storms in summer. We frequently have to wait for a perfect stalling sagging warm front returning from Missouri or the unusual phenomenon of LLJ . Many of usa dewpoint records are along upper Mississippi valley iowa and wisc!! And dont need to talk about drought? 2017 may 15 to aug 10 barely 3 inches of rain! I love Iowa but the extremes of humidity, temps, wind were even hard for a east coast country boy to get used to! All cities east of Appalachia are heat island hell holes to me. Concrete jungles that simply wont cool at night. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2022 I always have to deal with torturous Humidity, with Dew Points reaching 70°F every summer. But I'm going to be in Florida in Late April/Early May, and the Humidity is likely going to be even worse. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 15, 2022 Report Share Posted April 15, 2022 5 hours ago, westMJim said: It still looks like mid winter up in Houghton. https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/walker/ 10" last 2 days....still 2 to 3+ Feet in the woods. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2022 Report Share Posted April 15, 2022 2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said: I grew up near Frederick maryland and it was there on my gramps farm i developed a love for weather and climate. You are correct. In SE Iowa we get occasional nice cold fronts thru the summer months. Nights in upper 50s do occur. But i will say this, Ive seen many more horrible 95 to 109 degree days than in Maryland! In 2012 i recorded easily 50 to 60 90 degree days and 15 to 18 days over 100! And the biggest misconception of folks from south and east is it isnt humid here!! I regularly compare my dewpoint with Maryland, florida and other locations it will shock you! 75 to 83 high dewpoints ARE WAY TOO COMMON HERE! last summer I recorded a 84 and a local airport was 85 dewpoint!!! It can get crazy humid and hot here and simply WIL NOT RAIN! In Mid-Atlantic almost all of the peak hot and humid days bring widespread thunderstorms. There simply isnt any lift here frequently to create storms in summer. We frequently have to wait for a perfect stalling sagging warm front returning from Missouri or the unusual phenomenon of LLJ . Many of usa dewpoint records are along upper Mississippi valley iowa and wisc!! And dont need to talk about drought? 2017 may 15 to aug 10 barely 3 inches of rain! I love Iowa but the extremes of humidity, temps, wind were even hard for a east coast country boy to get used to! All cities east of Appalachia are heat island hell holes to me. Concrete jungles that simply wont cool at night. Hello neighbor! Frederick is a nice area. And definitely cooler/less humid than down here by the water. Would live there if I could, lol. Since 2010, 50-60+ days above 90°F is literally the *average* number (per summer). Has gotten really nasty in recent years as the Atlantic Hadley Cell has broadened and moisture advection has increased. You’re correct about those super humid days tending to develop convective activity here. The highest dewpoint I’ve ever recorded at this location was 87°F in July 2011. Brutal heatwave and a pop up thunderstorm combined in the worst way possible. Only time I’ve ever seen fog with a temperature in the upper 80s. Most disturbing thing is those 80+ dewpoints are happening much more frequently since then, even with less heatwave patterns. I fear what the next death ridge summer will do. 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 15, 2022 Report Share Posted April 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: I always have to deal with torturous Humidity, with Dew Points reaching 70°F every summer. But I'm going to be in Florida in Late April/Early May, and the Humidity is likely going to be even worse. Average in DFW is 65%, So. Padre Island - 84% Anyway you slice it, we're humid. Mow early or not at all. I don't know how the Cowboys play those early Fall games! (unless they play waaaay north. - like Canada!) 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 15, 2022 Report Share Posted April 15, 2022 A 97/74 day here is only a +4 departure in the 1991-2020 averages. Disturbing how strong the Bermuda High has become in recent decades. Very difficult to drop below 70°F at night now..happens only a handful of times through all of Jul/Aug. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 15, 2022 Report Share Posted April 15, 2022 4 hours ago, Phil said: . Last summer, the majority of ridging was focused the west/4-corners region (with plenty of shortwave troughing/severe weather here), yet we still ended up with more than 50 days above 90°F. Trade ya ! Our 90's start in Late May/June and run till (Frequently) October. 1 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 18Z GFS with mid 90s all the way up to western SoDak and down into most of Nebraska on south by the end of April 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 Hello from the "Valley of the Sun"! I bought a last minute ticket out to the PHX area for the Holiday and to enjoy an extended stay thru early May. I literally stepped out of the airport and felt the great energy out here...oh ya, the bountiful sunshine certainly helped also! It was a gloomy departure out of ORD and still a bit brisk out of the SW. At take off, we climbed super fast and felt the G's due to maximum lift. I always enjoy take off's for this reason. Surprisingly, it wasn't to turbulent even though there was a roaring jet across the nation. The pilot went on the intercom and said we would be flying between 26,000-30,000 ft to avoid the turbulence. We flew over the mountains of New Mexico and they did have snow on them which was a nice view from up top. Besides the 30 min delay at ORD, the flight was quick and the pilot reassured us he would maximize the speed of the aircraft to make up time and he sure did! "Taste of Summer"...is the theme for next weekend....1st 80's of the season for many of you out in the heartland and GL's! I already got my taste of 80's here yesterday and near 90F today. We may come close to 100F early next week. Wowza! Meantime, the rise in DP's and a strong southerly flow later next week/weekend is going to feel like Summer. I hope you all enjoy the warmer weather. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 After some Easter Snow this weekend, a warmer/wetter and potential turbulent wx pattern heading for the central Sub. The target period around the 24th is dialing up a stout trough to track into CA/S Rockies and pumping a massive SER. The trailing CF is likely to spark a round or two of severe wx for the heartland. What I think happens next is going to be a big clue as we head into MAY as blocking in the Arctic regions takes up residence and will deliver a wetter pattern where they need it most. I understand its a bold call given the drought conditions, but based on my LR clues I'm clearly seeing a west/east storm pattern across the Nation. Nature's Faucet is about to get released. Meantime, out here in the desert SW, we need moisture and I'm hopeful that some of these troughs that swing through could bring some much needed mountain snows and desert rains. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 I hope you’re right for the farmers sakes. With Ukraines cross out of the picture, US crops are all the more important. A senseless war makes rain very valuable. 72*. Cloudy, 20% chance rain. 40% tomorrow. 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 Yesterdays official high at Grand Rapids was 45 and the official overnight low was 30. The overnight low here in MBY was a colder 26. At the current time it is mostly cloudy here and 32. Yes it has been cold the last few days but it is not unusual for it to be this cold in mid April. Now that said if the forecasted high today of near 40 pans out it will be one of the coldest maximums for this date but then again the high last year on April 16 was just 40 and in 2018 the high was just 35 so in has been cold recently in mid April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, Andie said: I hope you’re right for the farmers sakes. With Ukraines cross out of the picture, US crops are all the more important. A senseless war makes rain very valuable. 72*. Cloudy, 20% chance rain. 40% tomorrow. The war on food is going to be something to watch across the globe. The great thing about this nation is we have the ability to grow a ton of crop and keep our costs lower and not have to rely on imports. If the modeling is correct for the summer, along with the blocking pattern, I could see a good growing season but we need to get the crop in the ground soon. The fertilizer situation is what worries me bc of the cost and scarcity situation. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 This is the result when the models digest the high lat blocking, esp the -NAO...aka Greenland Block....no bueno trends in temps, but MUY Bueno in terms of precip for NE peeps... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 23 minutes ago, Tom said: This is the result when the models digest the high lat blocking, esp the -NAO...aka Greenland Block....no bueno trends in temps, but MUY Bueno in terms of precip for NE peeps... Last nights Euro was great over the next 10 days for Nebraska. Lets see if the Euro can finally flip the table on the GFS and score a win for a change. The GFS is not good but imo likely wrong. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 38 minutes ago, Tom said: The war on food is going to be something to watch across the globe. The great thing about this nation is we have the ability to grow a ton of crop and keep our costs lower and not have to rely on imports. If the modeling is correct for the summer, along with the blocking pattern, I could see a good growing season but we need to get the crop in the ground soon. The fertilizer situation is what worries me bc of the cost and scarcity situation. I chose to fertilize our pasture and hay ground a little lighter this year to save money, it will be fine as long as I avoid a drought. I anticipate being near to above average on precip this summer based on the weather pattern my area has been in since last fall. Let's hope the gamble pays off. Yesterday we were able to put all of our 130 head of cattle out on grass which is right on schedule for this time of year. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 10 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: 18Z GFS with mid 90s all the way up to western SoDak and down into most of Nebraska on south by the end of April The Euro warms it up well to close out the month. Hopefully this will get you some good chasing weather close to home. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 Spring isn’t exactly busting out around here with drought and cold conditions. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 Kind of interesting - but there's been no max temps in the 70s-80s so far this month, all 40s-60s with a random day cooking at 91. Sounds about April, but that should change by Wednesday with some 70s. I know everyone wants 70s and 80s but I'm a sucker for sunny days in the 50s lol. 5 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 16, 2022 Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: It has been a very windy start to the year for Sioux Falls. 15 wind advisories have already been issued by NWS KFSD. That's already half of what the highest total was in a given year, through only the first 4 months. It has been a terrible, terrible, TERRIBLE year in the Northern Plains for wind. And usually it's very briefly preceded by a snowfall, which is why Fargo had the highest number of blizzard warnings in recorded history this winter. 4 1 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 WPC next 7 days 4 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Some pretty good CAPE showing on the 12z Canadian for next Friday. All models are picking up on some instability in the Plains region around that time but the Canadian is the strongest. Goof Grief! It's the Iowa Triple Point Round 3! Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 Had a nice little thunderstorm here this afternoon. Not even remotely severe, but there was a 5 minute period where the thunder was constant. All intracloud spider lightning, no CGs. Small hail and heavy rain in the core, but not much wind. Temp now dropping through the 60s with a N/NW breeze behind the cold front. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 A Happy Easter/ Passover Everyone! Hoping for a Season of Peace in our Futures !! 4 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 Happy Easter. Yesterdays official high of 39 at Grand Rapids was the 10th coldest maximum for any April 16th at Grand Rapids. The high of 39 at Muskegon was the 7th coldest of record there. So all in all a very cold mid April day. We will have another shot at some near record cold maximums on Monday. The overnight low both here and the official reading was 27. That 27 is good for a tie for the 4th coldest low for any April 17 at Grand Rapids. At this time it is partly cloudy and 30 here at my house. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 Happy Easter to all of you! I hope that today you can all spend some quality time with family and friends. In regards to the weather, I see that some of you may be seeing snowfall today while others just a chilly rain. Out here in the PHX valley, we topped out at 91F at the airport and will do it again today. I did not see a single cloud in the sky and ZERO Chem trails...the sky was such a pretty blue color. Got a bit sunburn but nothing I can't handle. Looking forward to a wonderful day and cooking in the kitchen. Meantime, the 00z Euro flashing what may be another April Blizzard for ND??? This is after they receive another 3-8" today....my goodness, this would be epic to see in late April. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 Oh No....that -NAO...Hello Blocky, Blocky....the pattern is gonna slow down to a crawl late month and into May. Man, this is going to be a Blessing for the central CONUS ag belt regions. To much of a good thing??? Maybe for some but welcome for others. Then you also couple that with a -EPO and you'll undoubtedly form a massive "Pool of Cool" where it's going to rain frequently. CFSv2 jumping on it... Wet, wet, wet...is a certain BET.... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 3 hours ago, Tom said: Happy Easter to all of you! I hope that today you can all spend some quality time with family and friends. In regards to the weather, I see that some of you may be seeing snowfall today while others just a chilly rain. Out here in the PHX valley, we topped out at 91F at the airport and will do it again today. I did not see a single cloud in the sky and ZERO Chem trails...the sky was such a pretty blue color. Got a bit sunburn but nothing I can't handle. Looking forward to a wonderful day and cooking in the kitchen. Meantime, the 00z Euro flashing what may be another April Blizzard for ND??? This is after they receive another 3-8" today....my goodness, this would be epic to see in late April. Happy Easter Tom, and the same to everyone else in this now expanded forum! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 Happy Easter everyone. It will be a chilly one for mby with some cold rain and temps around 40. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 On 4/11/2022 at 9:02 PM, Timmy Supercell said: This should be a stretch of at least 3 days in a row I have thunder. Wednesday looks promising with western KY in an Enhanced Risk. Maybe a couple lines/complexes form in the eastern section. Instead of severe weather, I could be looking at a snowstorm tomorrow. Couple of inches is looking very likely. 1 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Niko said: Instead of severe weather, I could be looking at a snowstorm tomorrow. Couple of inches is looking very likely. I'm just far enough south where my winter is pretty much goodbye, last measurable snow was on 3/12 here. Meanwhile snowiest April in a LONG time where I used to live. Someone reported nearly 4" yesterday in Klamath Falls OR. 2 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 I started a thread for the 23rd-28th @CentralNebWeatherlets get you some moisture, 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 45 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: It's a miraculous day! Happy Easter everyone!! Some people in the northwest might need their shovel to find any Easter Eggs 1 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 Snowstorm on the way for S MI. Watches and Warnings are also possible for spots to receive more than 6" of snow. Cant believe I am actually typing this. My location is in for 2-4" possibly more. This will be an all snowevent and heavy snow rates to go w/it. Temps stay near freezing all day, if not colder, or slightly above 32F and dewpoints remain in the teens or 20s, so bulbing is definitely in play. Places to my east are the hotspots. Monday Snow High: 34 °F Monday Night Chance Snow Low: 31 °F Noaa: So, with the wet bulb potential and high precipitation rates the expectation is for precipitation to fall in the form of snow Monday. Its possible that some drizzle could mix in for the western cwa particularly Monday afternoon, but not expecting much rain at this point. For QPF, ultimately sided with a blend of HPC/NBM with additional weighting of the NAM and ECMWF. The feeling is that the NAM is overdone with the QPF but the ECMWF is way too progressive with getting moisture out of here particularly Monday night. The strong potential vorticity trough reservoir will be directly overhead Monday night which will allow deformation to spin down and persist over the southern Lake Huron basin and Thumb region. Thus, the suspicion is there is overachievement potential across the east Monday night. Uncertainty does exist with precipitation rates. A secondary layer of steep, almost superadiabatic lapse rates is forecasted between the surface and 3.5 kft agl. But again, low confidence exists on the models ability to handle the environmental temperature profile correctly. So it`ll be interesting in how this factors into the microphysics of event, especially if aggregation of snowflakes occurs. Just a really cold sounding that supports snow accumulation and liquid to snow ratios of greater than 10:1. Given all of the considerations, did go ahead an aggressively increased snow amounts for all of Southeast Michigan. Snow amounts of generally 1 to 3 inches is expected from the Saginaw Valley southward through Metro Detroit (highest to the east) in the 10 AM to 4 PM time window. For St Clair, Sanilac, and Huron counties snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches is expected Monday afternoon and Monday night, with the potential for higher amounts particularly over eastern portions of the counties. Variance in the old 12Z EPS data and the 17.00Z operational ECMWF was high enough to hold off on the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for those three eastern counties. With that stated, the potential definitely exists to reach/exceed 5 inches of snow in 6 hours during the daytime Monday St Clair, Sanilac, and Huron counties. 2 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Niko said: Snowstorm on the way for S MI. Watches and Warnings are also possible for spots to receive more than 6" of snow. Cant believe I am actually typing this. My location is in for 2-4" possibly more. This will be an all snowevent and heavy snow rates to go w/it. Temps stay near freezing all day, if not colder, or slightly above 32F and dewpoints remain in the teens or 20s, so bulbing is definitely in play. Places to my east are the hotspots. Monday Snow High: 34 °F Monday Night Chance Snow Low: 31 °F Noaa: So, with the wet bulb potential and high precipitation rates the expectation is for precipitation to fall in the form of snow Monday. Its possible that some drizzle could mix in for the western cwa particularly Monday afternoon, but not expecting much rain at this point. For QPF, ultimately sided with a blend of HPC/NBM with additional weighting of the NAM and ECMWF. The feeling is that the NAM is overdone with the QPF but the ECMWF is way too progressive with getting moisture out of here particularly Monday night. The strong potential vorticity trough reservoir will be directly overhead Monday night which will allow deformation to spin down and persist over the southern Lake Huron basin and Thumb region. Thus, the suspicion is there is overachievement potential across the east Monday night. Uncertainty does exist with precipitation rates. A secondary layer of steep, almost superadiabatic lapse rates is forecasted between the surface and 3.5 kft agl. But again, low confidence exists on the models ability to handle the environmental temperature profile correctly. So it`ll be interesting in how this factors into the microphysics of event, especially if aggregation of snowflakes occurs. Just a really cold sounding that supports snow accumulation and liquid to snow ratios of greater than 10:1. Given all of the considerations, did go ahead an aggressively increased snow amounts for all of Southeast Michigan. Snow amounts of generally 1 to 3 inches is expected from the Saginaw Valley southward through Metro Detroit (highest to the east) in the 10 AM to 4 PM time window. For St Clair, Sanilac, and Huron counties snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches is expected Monday afternoon and Monday night, with the potential for higher amounts particularly over eastern portions of the counties. Variance in the old 12Z EPS data and the 17.00Z operational ECMWF was high enough to hold off on the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for those three eastern counties. With that stated, the potential definitely exists to reach/exceed 5 inches of snow in 6 hours during the daytime Monday St Clair, Sanilac, and Huron counties. Yay..can't wait. At least it held off and didn't ruin our Easter 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Yay..can't wait. At least it held off and didn't ruin our Easter Exactly. Where was this in December amigo, when it is most wanted, especially when the holidays are around. This has been a crazy, snowy April. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said: I'm just far enough south where my winter is pretty much goodbye, last measurable snow was on 3/12 here. Meanwhile snowiest April in a LONG time where I used to live. Someone reported nearly 4" yesterday in Klamath Falls OR. 2 days ago, it was a really mild day here in S MI w temps in the upper 60s and had the looks for severe weather. Dark clouds could be seen in the far distance, but too bad nothing occurred. I think it was a thunderstorm that was falling apart. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 34 minutes ago, Niko said: Exactly. Where was this in December amigo, when it is most wanted, especially when the holidays are around. This has been a crazy, snowy April. Nobody could get snow for the holidays. Now you guys up north can't get it to shut off! Frustrating I bet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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