westMJim Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 49 minutes ago, Tom said: It looked like we would miss out on the storms as MKE got hammered with 1-2" diameter hail. While Grand Rapids did get some rain (mostly less than 0.25") and a few light thunderstorms. The bigger storms were either to our west, north, east or south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Another key battle is shaping up between the GEFS & EPS....recall the battle the GEFS won for this coming weekend from the GL's and points East.Ā The GEFS won and the trough pattern prevailed.Ā Now, here comes the fun part, do the GEFS "see" the Monster "Summer Solstice" summer time ridge retrograde west or does it remain locked in place as the EPS suggests?Ā My gut says it retrogrades based on theĀ Here's the 0z EPS 500mb animation from the Summer Solstice period... Ā 0z GEFS..this is a good time to Test a long range forecasting method I typically use in the autumn/winter months when I look at the Strat warm/cold pools.Ā It suggests the GEFS pattern wins out, in fact, by the time we enter July 1st there may be a nice cool pool developing over the heartland of the nation.Ā 4th of July weekend may get wet and cooler.Ā Just some preliminary LR thoughts as we endure this expansive June Heat Wave. Ā Ā Since we don't have a Summer thread, I'll post these JMA seasonal wx maps here.Ā If you are looking for a relaxation of the Summer Sizzle, then this is your model to choose. Ā Temps...BN pattern to straddle the northern half of Sub... Ā Precip...wet central CONUS ag belt... Ā How will the Summer season end?Ā Just like it started...cool and wet may be a certain Bet!Ā $$$$ Temp/Precip...while the map portrays a widespread seasonal temp pattern to end Met Summer, I personally think it will show more cooling over the CONUS, esp with a 500mb it is displaying and the pockets of AN precip. Ā 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Iām sure that cool doesnāt include Oklahoma and Texas. Ā But weāre used to it.Ā Hereās our next 10 days.Ā Ā 1 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. āIfĀ I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and liveĀ in Hell.ā Ā Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Record set for warmest low temperature for this date. NWS Kansas City Ā @NWSKansasCity Ā ***RECORD*** It's official! KC has set a daily record for warmest low temperature. The low today was 81 breaking the old record of 79 set in 1953. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 More big boomers possible the next few days maybe some heat relief for some. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 DMX talking severe potential and heavy rain tonight/tomorrow. NAM is a bit more bullish than other models so we'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Already 79 with an 84 heat index 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, james1976 said: Already 79 with an 84 heat index I got you beat..82F/78Fā¦it feels every bit of the91F HIā¦ itās a muggy morning after the heavy rainā¦ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 87 today mid 70's till the weekend then a few 80's again.Ā summer is trying, but just can't do it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Ā 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 The airport has not been reporting observations since the passage of the storm line last night. lol https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDWU Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8,Ā Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: Ā Didn't they also have a crazy snowstorm last winter? Talk about extremes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 I managed to fall to 75, why is everyone else around me even warmer? Quote Never sayĀ NeverĀ with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 I've noticed that there's no longer a +10-15 degree bias on the GFS for summer heat waves. I wonder what the deal with that was last summer. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Ā Ā 2018-19: 55.5"Ā Ā 2019-20: 17.6"Ā Ā 2020-21: 49.4"Ā Ā 2021-22: 5.1"Ā Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: I've noticed that there's no longer a +10-15 degree bias on the GFS for summer heat waves. I wonder what the deal with that was last summer. Maybe it was just waiting for this to become reality.Ā 1 Quote Never sayĀ NeverĀ with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Already 90 with a 97 heat index 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 2 hours ago, james1976 said: Didn't they also have a crazy snowstorm last winter? Talk about extremes Yes, I think over 20 inches.Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 At the 1PM reading some temperatures around lower Michigan. Grand Rapids 80 with a dew point of 72. Lansing 75 with a dew point of 68. Detroit 78 with a dew point of 61 Here at my house 81 with a dew point of 79. It is much warmer at Kalamazoo with a temperature of 90 and a dew point of 77. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Good grief !! Weāll only top out at 97*. Ā Miracles do exist! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. āIfĀ I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and liveĀ in Hell.ā Ā Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 It's hot out there (currently low 90s), but it's also windy and noticeably less humid than yesterday.Ā I was just outside for several minutes and didn't even begin to sweat.Ā Yesterday, especially the first half of the day, was oppressively humid. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Also less humid here today as the strong south winds are really drying things out.Ā Currently 90 with a Heat Index of 94 and the dew point today is much lower at 68. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 6 hours ago, Tom said: Another key battle is shaping up between the GEFS & EPS....recall the battle the GEFS won for this coming weekend from the GL's and points East.Ā The GEFS won and the trough pattern prevailed.Ā Now, here comes the fun part, do the GEFS "see" the Monster "Summer Solstice" summer time ridge retrograde west or does it remain locked in place as the EPS suggests?Ā My gut says it retrogrades based on theĀ Here's the 0z EPS 500mb animation from the Summer Solstice period... Ā 0z GEFS..this is a good time to Test a long range forecasting method I typically use in the autumn/winter months when I look at the Strat warm/cold pools.Ā It suggests the GEFS pattern wins out, in fact, by the time we enter July 1st there may be a nice cool pool developing over the heartland of the nation.Ā 4th of July weekend may get wet and cooler.Ā Just some preliminary LR thoughts as we endure this expansive June Heat Wave. Ā Ā Since we don't have a Summer thread, I'll post these JMA seasonal wx maps here.Ā If you are looking for a relaxation of the Summer Sizzle, then this is your model to choose. Ā Temps...BN pattern to straddle the northern half of Sub... Ā Precip...wet central CONUS ag belt... Ā How will the Summer season end?Ā Just like it started...cool and wet may be a certain Bet!Ā $$$$ Temp/Precip...while the map portrays a widespread seasonal temp pattern to end Met Summer, I personally think it will show more cooling over the CONUS, esp with a 500mb it is displaying and the pockets of AN precip. Ā Iām not sure the GEFS āwonā since it was projecting a prolonged, 7+ day trough, while in reality itāll be a transient 2-3 day event followed by another prograding heat ridge. I have hope the first half of July will offer a ābreakā in the heat as upper level divergence reaches the dateline. But the 2nd half of July looks brutal again, with IO forcing/W-Pacific subsidence taking over. Ā 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam:Ā https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS WundergroundĀ https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA:Ā https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 7 hours ago, Tom said: What a way to start of the work weekĀ yesterday.Ā You guys heard me yearning for a solid storm and boy did nature surely deliver!Ā This super cell just blossomed out of nowhere.Ā It looked like we would miss out on the storms as MKE got hammered with 1-2" diameter hail but that storm cell actually helped fire up our storm cell as it produced a lake-enduced CF to straddle the extremely Humid and warm airmass.Ā DP's were in the low 80's south of the front combined with a bursting CAP, the atmosphere fired up and the storm ignited straight up reaching 60,000 ft+ into the atmosphere.Ā Amazingly, while this Super Cell was both Severe and Tornado warned, I did not see any damage.Ā It was literally the best outcome I could ask for as a wx enthusiast. There were many reports of rotation within the southern periphery of the storm.Ā Lot's of storm damage from wind and/or likely a microburst along with hail.Ā I saw torrential rain, .25" hail and prob the loudest and wildest CG's I've seen.Ā At times, each flash of lighting would produce a power surge inside my house.Ā It was actually pretty scary bc I could hear the electricity go through the wires/boxes.Ā My power went out for about 5-10 min...but thankfully...it came back on and the storm exited. Ā Some cool vids/pics of the super cell... Ā Ā Ā Ā Congrats brother! Send some of that my way please. Ā 1 Quote Live Weather Cam:Ā https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS WundergroundĀ https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA:Ā https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Yikes. EPS weeklies are no bueno. 5 Quote Live Weather Cam:Ā https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS WundergroundĀ https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA:Ā https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 hour ago, westMJim said: At the 1PM reading some temperatures around lower Michigan. Grand Rapids 80 with a dew point of 72. Lansing 75 with a dew point of 68. Detroit 78 with a dew point of 61 Here at my house 81 with a dew point of 79. It is much warmer at Kalamazoo with a temperature of 90 and a dew point of 77. Front is through.Ā It got hot and steamy.Ā Unbearable outside.Ā Officially 87 with dew of 74.Ā feels likeĀ 96.Ā Thick thick air.Ā Ā 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 Currently 97 with a 102 HI. It's a burner! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 14, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 MDW airport just hit 100F...the city is en fuego... Ā 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 The storm must have knocked KDWU out. I'd have to look for another local weather station to say what our temp is outside. Last observation was 8pm 6/13.Ā Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8,Ā Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 It's hot! Picture says it all. Cat stealing the shade by the front door.Ā 4 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8,Ā Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 4 hours ago, Phil said: Iām not sure the GEFS āwonā since it was projecting a prolonged, 7+ day trough, while in reality itāll be a transient 2-3 day event followed by another prograding heat ridge. I have hope the first half of July will offer a ābreakā in the heat as upper level divergence reaches the dateline. But the 2nd half of July looks brutal again, with IO forcing/W-Pacific subsidence taking over. Ā Larry Cosgrove is still in eather the warm neutul to weak El Nino idea this fall.whats he seeing your have to ask him that question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 12 hours ago, Tom said: What a way to start of the work weekĀ yesterday.Ā You guys heard me yearning for a solid storm and boy did nature surely deliver!Ā This super cell just blossomed out of nowhere.Ā It looked like we would miss out on the storms as MKE got hammered with 1-2" diameter hail but that storm cell actually helped fire up our storm cell as it produced a lake-enduced CF to straddle the extremely Humid and warm airmass.Ā DP's were in the low 80's south of the front combined with a bursting CAP, the atmosphere fired up and the storm ignited straight up reaching 60,000 ft+ into the atmosphere.Ā Amazingly, while this Super Cell was both Severe and Tornado warned, I did not see any damage.Ā It was literally the best outcome I could ask for as a wx enthusiast. There were many reports of rotation within the southern periphery of the storm.Ā Lot's of storm damage from wind and/or likely a microburst along with hail.Ā I saw torrential rain, .25" hail and prob the loudest and wildest CG's I've seen.Ā At times, each flash of lighting would produce a power surge inside my house.Ā It was actually pretty scary bc I could hear the electricity go through the wires/boxes.Ā My power went out for about 5-10 min...but thankfully...it came back on and the storm exited. Ā Some cool vids/pics of the super cell... Ā Ā Ā Ā That sounds riveting! I would love to see a storm like that in my lifetime. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining:Ā 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21:Ā 13" -2021-22:Ā 8.75" -2022-23:Ā 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall:Ā 0.25ā; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm):Ā 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth:Ā 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest:Ā 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said: Larry Cosgrove is still in eather the warm neutul to weak El Nino idea this fall.whats he seeing your have to ask him that question. Yeah that aināt happening. Lol. Trades about to go nuclear for several weeks. Quote Live Weather Cam:Ā https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS WundergroundĀ https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA:Ā https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted June 14, 2022 Report Share Posted June 14, 2022 23 hours ago, Tom said: This is one hellova stormā¦woah, loud AF! Ā Rain coming down sidewaysā¦power is surging..: Late on the reply but wow Tom; this might be one of the most impressive radar displays I have seen in a long time! I have never seen that amount of CG's from one storm even out here in the plains! Hoping we get lucky tonight before another heat wave this weekend.Ā 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted June 15, 2022 Report Share Posted June 15, 2022 The current temperature here MBY is 90 with a dew point of 79.5 for a very humid day. According to my weather station that is a heat index of 108. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted June 15, 2022 Report Share Posted June 15, 2022 0.75" hail reported in Beatrice after getting absolutely wrecked a few days agoĀ 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Ā Ā 2018-19: 55.5"Ā Ā 2019-20: 17.6"Ā Ā 2020-21: 49.4"Ā Ā 2021-22: 5.1"Ā Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted June 15, 2022 Report Share Posted June 15, 2022 This heat is taking itās sweet time meandering east. Ā Yāall stay safe and cool.Ā Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. āIfĀ I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and liveĀ in Hell.ā Ā Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 15, 2022 Report Share Posted June 15, 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning just to my west! Stepped out on the deck to take it in! Distant thunder and lightning is off the charts! Had a feeling this was gonna happen tonight. Thunderstorms are blossoming to my southwest. Might be a stormy night. We'll see. Either way....out on the deck with a cold one and taking in what I can 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 15, 2022 Report Share Posted June 15, 2022 I'm gonna barely get missed by this cell to the west...northwest....and north. But wow....what a display. The wind got calm (even though it was windy all day) but just watching this pass by is amazing. So much lighting and thunder. So much electricity in the air. Mother Nature is so powerful. Cluster to my SW might still hit me. We'll see how that pans out. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted June 15, 2022 Report Share Posted June 15, 2022 Tornado warning for northern Lancaster countyĀ 2 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4"Ā Ā 2018-19: 55.5"Ā Ā 2019-20: 17.6"Ā Ā 2020-21: 49.4"Ā Ā 2021-22: 5.1"Ā Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted June 15, 2022 Report Share Posted June 15, 2022 Significant supercell thunderstorm with 2"+ hail and 60 MPH winds heading right for the southern part of the Omaha metro area... very loud thunder in the distance right now, if this storm holds together my neighborhood is going to get rocked.Ā 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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