Deweydog Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: HCS? HIGH CLOUD SHOCKER! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 Today is so nice. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 35 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: The 8/7/16 trough may have been, otherwise I would say no. Dunno… those were all at least comparable on a 500mb level and occurred within a three and a half week span as opposed to 18 years. 1996 however was a beast and gets mentioned in isolation quite a bit. It was anomalous even during the LIA of the pre-2015 world. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 22, 2022 Report Share Posted July 22, 2022 Marine layer really cleared out well except for along the WA coast. And does not look too solid offshore so I am guessing tomorrow will be the same before the heat wave starts ramping up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 A wimpy 71 at SEA. A perfect 77 in North Bend and 76 up here... with full sunshine since about noon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Very sunny and warm here in Everett. 72F is the current high for the day, ocean breeze. Looking towards the Cascade's it looks like there is a lot of clouds forming up in dem' hills. Thunderstorms? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Very sunny and warm here in Everett. 72F is the current high for the day, ocean breeze. Looking towards the Cascade's it looks like there is a lot of clouds forming up in dem' hills. Thunderstorms? Live view here near the Cascades... no thunderstorms. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Dunno… those were all at least comparable on a 500mb level and occurred within a three and a half week span as opposed to 18 years. 1996 however was a beast and gets mentioned in isolation quite a bit. It was anomalous even during the LIA of the pre-2015 world. It was certainly anomalous, but you have to remember that it really was a different landscape with summer troughing back then by a comfortable margin. I don't think that's hyperbolic at all. 1996 was only 1 year removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us0807.php 3 years removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0729.php 7 years removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0801.php 9 years removed from this (produced a 47 degree high in Bend) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1987/us0718.php And 10 years removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us0716.php Whereas now we're having to wrack our brains to go back 6-8 years to find something that's maybe even 75% as impressive. Edited July 23, 2022 by BLI snowman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: It was certainly anomalous, but you have to remember that it really was a different landscape with summer troughing back then by a comfortable margin. I don't think that's hyperbolic at all. 1996 was only 1 year removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us0807.php 3 years removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0729.php 7 years removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0801.php 9 years removed from this (produced a 47 degree high in Bend) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1987/us0718.php And 10 years removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us0716.php Whereas now we're having to wrack our brains to go back 6-8 years to find something that's maybe even 75% as impressive. What about this beast in July 2019... 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 71/58 here nice day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: It was certainly anomalous, but you have to remember that it really was a different landscape with summer troughing then by a comfortable margin. I don't think that's hyperbolic at all. 1996 was only 1 year removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us0807.php 3 years removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0729.php 7 years removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0801.php 9 years removed from this (produced a 47 degree high in Bend) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1987/us0718.php And 10 years removed from this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1986/us0716.php Whereas now we're having to wrack our brains to go back 6-8 years to find something that's even 75% as impressive. You made it sound like pretty much any kind of even quasi-impressive vort infiltration at this point has essentially become an impossibility in the post-2015 world. I don’t think that’s the case. I do think it could easily be argued that the ferocity and frequency have both decreased. It’s a similar logic regarding our top tier cold season air masses. Possible in the hypothetical but it’s never been a better bet to bet against them. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: What about this beast in July 2019... Definitely not on the level of any of the troughs mentioned above. Also born out by the unimpressive temperatures that brought with it. Eugene barely scored a sub-80 day with that. This is a little further back and also a little more early summer, but a prime example of what we simply don't come close to seeing anymore. This brought snow down to Government Camp. And just a month before the huge heat wave, mind you. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1981/us0707.php For as much as it feels like our ability to see impressive cold anomalies or troughing in the winter has been neutered, the difference with summer is clearly much more stark. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: You made it sound like pretty much any kind of even quasi-impressive vort infiltration at this point has essentially become an impossibility in the post-2015 world. I don’t think that’s the case. I do think it could easily be argued that the ferocity and frequency have both decreased. It’s a similar logic regarding our top tier cold season air masses. Possible in the hypothetical but it’s never been a better bet to bet against them. I actually don't think it could even remotely be argued otherwise, for our region at least. It's pretty much an established fact. And "quasi-impressive vort infiltration" is obviously highly subjective but the complete dearth of prominent examples recently across a broad swath of the mid-latitudes certainly demonstrates that it's effectively on life support. Whether that remains the case going forward is anyone's guess. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: A wimpy 71 at SEA. A perfect 77 in North Bend and 76 up here... with full sunshine since about noon. Today is as perfect as it gets. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I actually don't think it could even remotely be argued otherwise, for our region at least. It's pretty much an established fact. And "quasi-impressive vort infiltration" is obviously highly subjective but the complete dearth of prominent examples recently across a broad swath of the mid-latitudes certainly demonstrates that it's effectively on life support. Whether that remains the case going forward is anyone's guess. I’d suspect at least on a regional level the SW drought and it’s feedback effects are significant piece of the puzzle. It’s just too easy during the zenith of the warm season for Pacific energy to phase with the ridiculous subsidence factory down there. That said, synoptics are still a thing and I think it’s way too far reaching make declarations about the end of impactful troughing within the mid summer bubble. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 so eh...what are the analogs for this year so far? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’d suspect at least on a regional level the SW drought and it’s feedback effects are significant piece of the puzzle. It’s just too easy during the zenith of the warm season for Pacific energy to phase with the ridiculous subsidence factory down there. That said, synoptics are still a thing and I think it’s way too far reaching make declarations about the end of impactful troughing within the mid summer bubble. Ninas forever! We need our lowland snow chances. Screw the SW. Their problems can't possibly have any impact on us. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Ninas forever! We need our lowland snow chances. Screw the SW. Their problems can't possibly have any impact on us. Watch the next niño be like 1957/58 and result in a cool western summer. Soon enough you’ll be cheering on niñas and dreading niños. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 20 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’d suspect at least on a regional level the SW drought and it’s feedback effects are significant piece of the puzzle. It’s just too easy during the zenith of the warm season for Pacific energy to phase with the ridiculous subsidence factory down there. That said, synoptics are still a thing and I think it’s way too far reaching make declarations about the end of impactful troughing within the mid summer bubble. Certainly possible. The 4CH expansion is a pretty noticeable fly in the ointment in recent years and has had impacts in all directions. Another example being on its eastern flank where it seems to be a factor in really cutting into severe weather/tornado climo on the High Plains and Southern Plains. As far as what we'll see in the future, I'll leave that up to Kevin Martin, Ed Berry, and Chris Durkin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Phil said: Watch the next niño be like 1957/58 and result in a cool western summer. Soon enough you’ll be cheering on niñas and dreading niños. Doesn't matter... the SW could really use a couple years of Nino. Gives them a fighting chance at least. And 2019 was ENSO positive all year... it was the most consistently wet summer I have experienced here. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Bella agrees. Nice day. Would like some food. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Ninas forever! We need our lowland snow chances. Screw the SW. Their problems can't possibly have any impact on us. 2016/17 and 2018/19 were good for both the SW and us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: What about this beast in July 2019... 2019 is the closest we've come to a real cold summer this last decade. Just got trapped in the SW'lies way too often and it never cooled off at night. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Certainly possible. The 4CH expansion is a pretty noticeable fly in the ointment in recent years and has had impacts in all directions. Another example being on its eastern flank where it seems to be a factor in really cutting into severe weather/tornado climo on the High Plains and Southern Plains. As far as what we'll see in the future, I'll leave that up to Kevin Martin, Ed Berry, and Chris Durkin. Definitely, and that has actually increased our severe weather climo as a result. We’re having another strong year locally. In fact we’ve had the 3rd most severe thunderstorm warnings of any WFO in the country. Very reminiscent of 2021. Both driven by the 4CH. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: A wimpy 71 at SEA. A perfect 77 in North Bend and 76 up here... with full sunshine since about noon. You call it wimpy. I call it perfection! The skies are beautifully blue. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Sky has that yeah-it-might-be-cool-right-now-but-the-models-say-it-is-gonna-get-hot-as-f*ck-and-it-is-gonna-snow-next-January-and-Epstein-didn’t-kill-himself look to it right now. 2 1 1 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Sky has that yeah-it-might-be-cool-right-now-but-the-models-say-it-is-gonna-get-hot-as-f*ck-and-it-is-gonna-snow-next-January-and-Epstein-didn’t-kill-himself look to it right now. Weird. Simba’s father actually appeared to me in the night sky last night and also told me that Epstein didn’t kill himself. The skies don’t lie. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, Cloud said: You call it wimpy. I call it perfection! The skies are beautifully blue. It was beautiful... just wimpy compared to how much warmer it was out here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 2019 is the closest we've come to a real cold summer this last decade. Just got trapped in the SW'lies way too often and it never cooled off at night. Honestly I think a 2019 type summer is probably the best we can do from a cool summer lover’s perspective in this day and age. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 31 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 2019 is the closest we've come to a real cold summer this last decade. Just got trapped in the SW'lies way too often and it never cooled off at night. Ironically the +ENSO/narrow Hadley Cell going into that summer is the reason it turned out that way. I think what would help is a more +SPMM (at least relative to NPMM). For whatever reason, that -SPMM feature seems to be present in a lot of the hottest, nastiest summers in the West (and CONUS overall). And it’s been a staple of the past decade, particularly. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 The 2023 ASG logo is a good one. Well done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Blizzard777 Posted July 23, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 5 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Hard to beat the weather today... and most of us probably agree on that! Got up extra early to catch the sunrise at Sunrise Park! 73/59 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Jginmartini said: Got up extra early to catch the sunrise at Sunrise Park! 73/59 Is this for real? Holy shiet… stunning! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Marine layer really cleared out well except for along the WA coast. And does not look too solid offshore so I am guessing tomorrow will be the same before the heat wave starts ramping up. Marine layer paid off huge for me this morning!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Is this for real? Holy shiet… stunning! It was quite the show….worth it waking at 3 and heading up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: It was quite the show….worth it waking at 3 and heading up! You picked the perfect day(s). Wow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: It was quite the show….worth it waking at 3 and heading up! Those are insane. You drove to the sunrise visitor center and hiked a bit? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 Already down into the 50’s. Brrrr! 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Already down into the 50’s. Brrrr! That’s pretty crazy. It seems you have marine influence to keep you cool in the summer but manage to get anomalously old and snowy in the winter. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 23, 2022 Report Share Posted July 23, 2022 If weather.com verified, Portland would break the record for most days at or above 95 degrees in a row with 7. The previous record was 6 set in July 1941 and August 1981. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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