December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

This is the first run of the GFS with the ridge this weak. It's quite different than the last few runs.

Gotcha, ok thanks! The Euro will be much anticipated today!

[Timmy]

12z GFS no bueno. Offshore ridge is much weaker and less amplified. Downright wimpy, really.

A weak low hits the south Oregon coast on Christmas, a slight shift north and pdx would get snow on Christmas Day. I can't hate that.

[Timmy]

33f rain this morning. Kind of surprised how close we were to zr this morning

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well the Gorge snow happened. 33 degrees with .50" of precip falling as snow so far at The Dalles. Looks like the Gorge floor should avoid ZR too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, geez the 12z is a downer

[MossMan]

Yeah, geez the 12z is a downer

Im kind of surprised Tim isn't all over this posting map after map of awfulness. He must have taken a few mile drive east and is frolicking in the snow. I have a feeling the pass will be closed within a few hours. 

[westcoastexpat]

I feel like Jesse's spirit lives on inside of you. Since he has been gone, you have become extra pessimistic and cynical.

 

Was Jesse (rightfully) banned?

[westcoastexpat]

Waiting to see what precip type comes at my doorstep right now. Currently 36F with a dewpoint of 30F. Probably will be a rain/snow mix.

[westcoastexpat]

And... it's snowing in Vancouver!

[HighlandExperience]

And... it's snowing in Vancouver!

 

I'm jealous. Looks like you guys might have a dusting around Christmas as well.

[ShawniganLake]

32F with moderate snow here now. About 1/2" accumulation.

[luminen]

Just rain here (between Kerr and Victoria up the hill). I saw some mixed precip on the radar down in Surrey earlier though. 

[HighlandExperience]

Im kind of surprised Tim isn't all over this posting map after map of awfulness. He must have taken a few mile drive east and is frolicking in the snow. I have a feeling the pass will be closed within a few hours. 

 

It is probably snowing at TT's house. Just talked to a friend in North Bend, and he is reporting rain/snow mix occasionally.

[Timmy]

Was Jesse (rightfully) banned?

I believe so, nothing was really said about it but he stopped posting on a day when he was going at Fred repeatedly. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The mountains are going to get epic snow over the next week. 7-8 feet over the next 8 days.

[Timmy]

The mountains are going to get epic snow over the next week. 7-8 feet over the next 8 days.

I know there are better maps than this but this is just through monday. Higher elevations over 4 ft between now and then.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121712/gfs_asnow_nwus_17.png

[Brennan]

Hearing reports of light snow in NW Whatcom County. Just rain here 3 miles NE of the Airport in Bellingham. 

[Dave]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png

Epic drought has been cancelled.    RIP drought.

[HighlandExperience]

I know there are better maps than this but this is just through monday. Higher elevations over 4 ft between now and then.

 

 

Nice. Here is the 4KM WRF.

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/msnow72.84.0000.gif

[Snowman5678]

It is probably snowing at TT's house. Just talked to a friend in North Bend, and he is reporting rain/snow mix occasionally.

36 and a little bit of chunky rain at times here at 550ft. A few splats on my windshield but that was it when I was driving. Considering I left nearly a foot and a half of snow...*snore*. I actually am liking this though, I kind of missed the gloomy days. 

 

My sister in London has been complaining about how warm its been. Right now she's skiing in the french alps and only 1/5th of the trails are open because there isn't enough snow and it's in the mid 40s. Good thing there is a glacier they can ski on. 

[HighlandExperience]

36 and a little bit of chunky rain at times here at 550ft. A few splats on my windshield but that was it when I was driving. Considering I left nearly a foot and a half of snow...*snore*. I actually am liking this though, I kind of missed the gloomy days. 

 

My sister in London has been complaining about how warm its been. Right now she's skiing in the french alps and only 1/5th of the trails are open because there isn't enough snow and it's in the mid 40s. Good thing there is a glacier they can ski on. 

 

Nice. It is full blown snowing now in Snoqualmie Ridge at the intersection of Hwy 18 and I-90. So I am pretty confident that TT is enjoying his snow.

[MossMan]

Nice. It is full blown snowing now in Snoqualmie Ridge at the intersection of Hwy 18 and I-90. So I am pretty confident that TT is enjoying his snow.

Well then I am quite disappointed he hasn't posted any pictures yet!

Just looking out the window here at my work it looks like some lumpiness is also dropping with the moderate rain now.

[Snowman5678]

Nice. It is full blown snowing now in Snoqualmie Ridge at the intersection of Hwy 18 and I-90. So I am pretty confident that TT is enjoying his snow.

 

Yeah, 34 degrees at 600ft in North Bend so I would assume its snowing quite a bit up there.

 

Breezy ESE winds here with gusts probably around 30. Seems to be picking up a bit too.

[westcoastexpat]

Huge fat flakes falling here.

[Snowman5678]

Getting some more chunky rain drops during each wind gust. Temp slowly dropping. Close but not quite. Glad its dumping up in the mountains though! 

[westcoastexpat]

I think that there is a very real chance for lowland snows for the northern part of this subforum around the December 18th period, particularly for higher hills. However, I think there is pretty much a 100% chance that snow will not be around in time for Christmas.

 

Verified! 

[stuffradio]

I'm getting exactly nothing. That's typical.

[Front Ranger]

Verified! 

 

Not the Christmas part...

[westcoastexpat]

Not the Christmas part...

 

Well, the first part. Looks like a pretty good chance there won't be snow here on the ground on the 25th.

[liquidsnow]

Well, the first part. Looks like a pretty good chance there won't be snow here on the ground on the 25th.

 

I could have predicted that back in July.

[ShawniganLake]

I just measured 1.5" here.  Snow seems to be letting up some now. 

[westcoastexpat]

I could have predicted that back in July.

 

You predicted that there would be snow around December 18?

[TT-SEA]

It is probably snowing at TT's house. Just talked to a friend in North Bend, and he is reporting rain/snow mix occasionally.

 

 

Yes... snowing here.   About an inch and there is no wind at all.

 

Looking at web cam from North Bend and there is snow but its very wet and it looks windy down there.   Not really sticking there but it is up here for now.

[Front Ranger]

Well, the first part. Looks like a pretty good chance there won't be snow here on the ground on the 25th.

 

Way too soon to say. Looks like a better chance than most years.

 

12z Euro is way better than GFS at day 6. Blocking ridge building in similar to 0z run.

[Timmy]

I don't hate this. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121712/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

[Timmy]

Way too soon to say. Looks like a better chance than most years.

 

12z Euro is way better than GFS at day 6. Blocking ridge building in similar to 0z run.

If you read back his prediction on the 10th was "good chance of snow around the 18th. that snow will not be there on christmas."  He didn't say it won't snow on christmas, but that todays snow would not be there then.

[MossMan]

Sorry...couldn't resist. 7yrs ago today.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
400 AM PST WED DEC 17 2008

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MOST NORTHERN ZONES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON AS WELL AS
THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS...

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN ZONES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...

.A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM CANADA
TODAY...AND WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS STILL OVER THE
REGION...SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY.
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-
WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-OLYMPICS-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTH COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
400 AM PST WED DEC 17 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH PART OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...AS
WELL AS THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES.

IN WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY...SAN JUAN COUNTY...AND WESTERN SKAGIT
COUNTY...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY. SNOW HAS ALREADY
BEGUN AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER INCH IS POSSIBLE. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE 2 TO 6 INCHES.

IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AREA...UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY TODAY. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AWAY FROM THE STRAIT.
RIGHT ALONG THE STRAIT THE WARMER AIR WILL PRODUCE THE LOWEST
ACCUMULATIONS AND THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES.
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW TO DEVELOP. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE 2 TO 6 INCHES.

IN THE EVERETT AREA...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY. LIGHT SNOW
HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THAT
MAY PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS...PROBABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE AREA. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL OVERNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE UP TO 8 INCHES.

IN THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS INCLUDING CITIES SUCH AS
BELLEVUE...ISSAQUAH...NORTH BEND...AND BONNEY LAKE...2 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY. SNOW FLURRIES HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN AND HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER 7 AM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR THE CASCADES...AND OVER THE NORTH PART WHERE
A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP. ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL
FALL TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE 4 TO 10 INCHES.

ON THE NORTH COAST...UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE TODAY.
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE INLAND CLOSER TO THE
OLYMPICS. NEAR THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH SO THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED. ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL TONIGHT...ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FURTHER INLAND. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO 7 INCHES.

IN THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES...ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW SNOW WILL
FALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE
JUST NORTH OF OR NEAR THE STEVENS PASS AREA...WHERE A PERSISTENT
BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY SNOW WILL END BY THURSDAY MORNING...SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO CLIMB
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...SO NOT MUCH SNOW MELT
WILL OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS
AND ROAD CONDITIONS CAREFULLY. STAY INDOORS IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.
TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
 

[westcoastexpat]

Way too soon to say. Looks like a better chance than most years.

 

12z Euro is way better than GFS at day 6. Blocking ridge building in similar to 0z run.

 

Not for my neck of the woods. Looks dry. But I mean this snow is going to melt before the 25th.

[Front Ranger]

If you read back his prediction on the 10th was "good chance of snow around the 18th. that snow will not be there on christmas."  He didn't say it won't snow on christmas, but that todays snow would not be there then.

 

True, but then he answered today and said it looks like a pretty good chance there won't be any snow on the ground at Christmas.

[stuffradio]

I'm getting a mix of flurries/rain right now.