January 2016 in the PNW

[James Jones]

I remember that well. Turned into the longest Christmas break ever. I was a Senior in High School so I didn't have to make up the snow days either!

Nice. December 2008 was during my senior year, and my district was so wimpy that they closed the schools for that entire week before the main event even happened.

[Jesse]

Looks like a fairly interesting period of January weather in the mid-long range too. Who would have thought with a strong Nino?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Horse Creek just to my east at 3400' is still at 27.

[chopper 918]

Mark Nelsen did pretty well on this one.

Doesn't he always?

[FroYoBro]

Looks like a fairly interesting period of January weather in the mid-long range too. Who would have thought with a strong Nino?

 

December was even an interesting month. Maybe we should always cheer for extreme Ninos. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately there is no mechanism to drive the cold air south into our region.

[Jesse]

Still pure snow here. Oddly I haven't seen a hint of sleet or ZR all morning. I figured this area would be more vulnerable being on a mountain top in the SW metro.

[Jesse]

December was even an interesting month. Maybe we should always cheer for extreme Ninos.

I think the super Nino was just what the doctor ordered as far as kicking us out of the warm/dry regime which dominated from early 2013 onward.

[BLI snowman]

Mark Nelsen did pretty well on this one. 

 

He's the best met in Portland, NWS included.

[stuffradio]

December was even an interesting month. Maybe we should always cheer for extreme Ninos. 

Extreme anomalies!

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

Yep, Mark said game on. No warm air nosing in all day through tomorrow morning. Points Albany north!!!!

[bainbridgekid]

Happy for the Portland folks getting snow!

 

35/16 here in Mountlake Terrace this morning. First morning since I got back from Chicago without heavy frost on the ground. Just too dry.

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

He's the best met in Portland, NWS included.

 

Yep, about 8 years or so back, my brother and I were able to go down to the Fox12 studios in Hillsboro and get a tour of the weather department. Unfortunately Stephanie wasn't there :{. Anyways, it was, surprise surprise, when the NWS had issued a winter storm warning for the metro area and Mark showed us why that wasn't going to verify. I don't ever question his forecasts. Best in town.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem reporting light snow still at 9am, though some people have told me they are getting sleet in the Salem area.

[Jesse]

Nice. December 2008 was during my senior year, and my district was so wimpy that they closed the schools for that entire week before the main event even happened.

I lucked out with that one too. I was working at WaferTech at the time and had a lot of furlough days scheduled that month in the wake of the economic downturn. Those combined with a couple inclement weather days gave me a snow filled week before Christmas off!

[Kayla]

Moderate snow here all morning and 22º. About 1" of snowfall so far. Going to be a cold day.

[Jesse]

This is my third consecutive day in a snow covered landscape. First sledding near Carson, then snowshoeing near Bend, and now snow in town (somehow the most awesome of the three).

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

Snowy Sunday morning, nice and warm in bed. Now just need the Seahawks to win to make the day complete..

[Jesse]

I have to say, at the 500mb level this is probably one of the wonkiest looking snow events we have ever had.

[Timmy]

Pdx-dls gradient still up around -8, and its 24 in the Dallas!

[bainbridgekid]

I have to say, at the 500mb level this is probably one of the wonkiest looking snow events we have ever had.

Totally.

 

Pretty amazing to see powdery snow in Portland with 558 heights in NE BC.

 

Homegrown cold!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Go CHIEFS!

[Timmy]

Dumping here in Scappoose. At my house hrrr shows about .6 qpf for my house, ratio should be good for at least 6", over about the 6" I have now.

[Perturbed Member]

The NWS sure looks stupid this morning. They waited until 3 AM to issue a WWA and then said the snow was for 1000ft+ which made no sense. They then updated it again at 7 AM with an other useless and excessively conservative forecast. 

[Timmy]

The NWS sure looks stupid this morning. They waited until 3 AM to issue a WWA and then said the snow was for 1000ft+ which made no sense. They then updated it again at 7 AM with an other useless and excessively conservative forecast.

In their defense, no on expected this much precip this early. Last nights wrf showed virtually no snow last night for me.

[Perturbed Member]

In their defense, no on expected this much precip this early. Last nights wrf showed virtually no snow last night for me.

 

The HRRR did show it last night. I posted about it here: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1136-january-2016-in-the-pnw/page-11?do=findComment&comment=106619

 

Even if you ignore this early morning precip, the fact is that it was very obvious by yesterday evening that PDX and much of the valley would see .3-.4 QPF of frozen precip. That warrants a WWA regardless of timing or precip type. These guys basically waited until it started snowing to issue any advisory, quite useless to the general public. 

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

Snow is now picking back up here in Gladstone. Just an awesome day today!!

[BLI snowman]

The HRRR did show it last night. I posted about it here: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1136-january-2016-in-the-pnw/page-11?do=findComment&comment=106619

 

Even if you ignore this early morning precip, the fact is that it was very obvious by yesterday evening that PDX and much of the valley would see .3-.4 QPF of frozen precip. That warrants a WWA regardless of timing or precip type. These guys basically waited until it started snowing to issue any advisory, quite useless to the general public. 

 

Yep, some major egg on their face. Not sure what their rationale was, beyond "virga".

[Josh The Snowman Gladstone]

Yep, some major egg on their face. Not sure what their rationale was, beyond "virga".

Yep, some major egg on their face. Not sure what their rationale was, beyond "virga".

They don't understand the gorge.

[Perturbed Member]

I have to say, this is the most impressive and overachieving fake cold I've seen in a long time. Didn't need any help from the arctic or Canada, all locally home grown certified organic cold air right here in the good ol' Pacific Northwest. 

[BLI snowman]

Rare to see the ice at the OR coast.

[Jesse]

Yep, some major egg on their face. Not sure what their rationale was, beyond "virga".

The 1,000ft snow level mention seems pretty strange too. Feels like that is their default when things look uncertain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sounds like ZR down in Silverton too.

[Snowman5678]

I have a bit of De Javu from Feb 2014 here. PDX getting a nice snowstorm while Seattle gets nothing. Completely different setup and SEA actually did get some snow in feb 2014, but considering there is less precip than that storm it reminds me of a less precip version of 2014. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That January 8-12 period is one to keep an eye on...

[Jesse]

I have to say, this is the most impressive and overachieving fake cold I've seen in a long time. Didn't need any help from the arctic or Canada, all locally home grown certified organic cold air right here in the good ol' Pacific Northwest.

Cold air tends to build in places that get little solar heating and that are isolated from bodies of water (i.e. east of the Cascades in the winter). The same mechanisms that build our local cold airmasses are the ones that build the cold airmasses at the poles, albeit on a smaller scale.

 

That's why the term "fake cold" has always seemed so strange to me. Cold is cold is cold. It can even give us snow sometimes, like today!

[bainbridgekid]

It's lost in all the excitement happening today, but the 12z GFS brings a boatload of very cold air to our doorstep at day 8.

 

Energy also undercuts the ridge around the same time. Lots of snow potential around the 9th-12th.

 

[Timmy]

Perfect day, I'll I want now is the Seahawks to lose to balance out all this positivity due to snow.

[Phil]

Strongest WWB of the year thus far predicted on the GFS. Might slow down current reversal but due to the nature of the thermocline in a Niño like this, it won't lead to much SST warming.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On the 9am hour Burns, OR was reporting heavy snow with 1/4 mile visibility. Perfect weather for a militia standoff!