TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 It really is me this time. I just did that to be funny. Good to know. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Models are really starting to hint at the return of ridging in the EPO domain towards the end of the month. The progression of tropical forcing and the wave-breaker over the Aleutians favors this scenario, so it's not just model madness. This is the first step towards a return to winter in the west, though I think we're still at least 15-20 days away from anything legit. So the prediction of a 4-6 week "hiatus" seems to have worked out. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Models are really starting to hint at the return of ridging in the EPO domain towards the end of the month. The progression of tropical forcing and the wave-breaker over the Aleutians favors this scenario, so it's not just model madness. This is the first step towards a return to winter in the west, though I think we're still at least 15-20 days away from anything legit. So the prediction of a 4-6 week "hiatus" seems to have worked out. I definitely shared the same thoughts as far as a hiatus from western troughing. Although the MJO is taking longer to get going than I originally thought, back in the last week of December I shared my reasoning as to why I didn't think we had a shot until the end of the month. Once the MJO reached the West Pacific, it was evident we would have an extended period of riding while an El Nino like regime took hold. Seems as though it will still take a bit to possibly get things going around here, so I'm guessing end of the month will be a bit too soon. If things are going to work out as I'm hoping, I'm thinking the first week or 2 of February... but then again, I've consistently been too quick with my thinking. The AMM will be headed into positive territory shortly, followed by another drop. The correlations associated with the AMM and 500mb heights as well as tropical convection is evident in the following composite I threw together. -AMM supports a -PNA ridge as well convection in the Indian Ocean - Maritime Continent regions. http://i40.tinypic.com/16ifuxl.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah, the tropical tropopause has been in a lowered state with the +QBO westerlies and anti-cyclonic eddies all over the boundaries of the Ferrel domain...so the MJO has been hampered thus far. My original call for a breakout in mid Jan looks way off, almost a month too early. Whoops, haha. Also, regarding your bottom-left image. That looks more like a -AAM geopotential height orientation to me? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah, the tropical tropopause has been in a lowered state with the +QBO westerlies and anti-cyclonic eddies all over the boundaries of the Ferrel domain...so the MJO has been hampered thus far. My original call for a breakout in mid Jan looks way off, almost a month too early. Whoops, haha. Also, regarding your bottom-left image. That looks more like a -AAM geopotential height orientation to me? Oooops, that was supposed to say -AAM... going to fix it right now. How soon do you believe the decreasing westerlies will help cool the troposphere/stratosphere and allow the MJO to strengthen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Oooops, that was supposed to say -AAM... going to fix it right now. How soon do you believe the decreasing westerlies will help cool the troposphere/stratosphere and allow the MJO to strengthen?This is a tough one, but I'm thinking the metaphoric rubber band snaps sometime between February 10th and March 10th. In my view, this could be a classic late-winter SSW/MJO release, perhaps marking the demise of the winter-PV as the FSW (final warming). In February 1991, something very similar occurred. Only, the tropical forcings coupled with the flimsy Brewer-Dobson cell/high solar flux the led to a US blow-torch while the rest of the hemisphere went into the freezer..much like January-February 2012. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PRISM Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Does anyone know of studies (climatology) for when and if a west coast ridge occurs in winter whether it has a preferred length of stay? Anecdotally, I have often heard that once this ridge establishes, it is rather difficult to move, weaken, etc. I suppose it is also seasonally dependent. PRISM Quote P R I S M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Looks like I picked a good weekend to stay at the beach! Sunny and 50+! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PRISM Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 All: For any truly newbies: The Monthly Western Snowpack and Water Supply Forecast Report has also been posted to the NWCC homepage in MS Word and Adobe Acrobat formats at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnowsummary.pl. The Weekly CONUS Snowpack and Drought Update Report has been posted to the NWCC homepage as an Adobe Acrobat file at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl. Archived copies can also be acquired there. Quote P R I S M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 The GFS sure is depressing. My wife told me if we didn't get any snow this year she is leaving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Nice new updates to the forum and looking forward to this as we move forward. Nice job to iFred and others as I know this can be quite the undertaking! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Back by popular demand! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Wowzers.... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st0rmchaser Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'm back too, but I'm not sure there was any demand. I think my last lament on the old board was whether we were going to stick a fork in the remaining months of winter. Something not scientific tells me to be optimisitc. I've had a few inches of snow here as late as the third week in March (2011?). Quote Favorite weather: The kind most people run away from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Today’s SOI number is 44, with a pressure of 998 at Darwin. History has shown that these types of numbers during an SOI spike often are followed by Arctic Air/Snow in the PNW within a few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Wow. Something's gotta give. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 First post on the new forum. EDIT: It worked! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Wow. Something's gotta give. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-68-0-13648500-1389720089.gif http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-68-0-85584700-1389720099.pngI have to admit that is really encouraging!! Yes, something has to give and I hope it's not our sanity if this does not play out like we hope. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 14, 2014 Report Share Posted January 14, 2014 Wowzers.... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif Nice cutoff low, maybe some nocturnal thunderstorms? Muggy nights? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Wow. Something's gotta give. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-68-0-13648500-1389720089.gifhttp://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-68-0-85584700-1389720099.png This may be the time when the ridge gets squeezed by the lows. All that has to happen is for the GoA high height anomaly to vanish. Which may happen soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 I am guessing the new ECMWF weeklies are UGLY based on this: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-1/22083883 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Was a very pleasant day on my travels for work. Was at yakima this morning until about 11AM and I had to pull off the sweatshirt and roll down the window when leaving it felt so warm! Snoqualmie Pass looked pathetic though, a few skiers dodging weeds from the looks of it. Hopefully winter will come soon! I see Tim is the only non-newbie so far! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Was a very pleasant day on my travels for work. Was at yakima this morning until about 11AM and I had to pull off the sweatshirt and roll down the window when leaving it felt so warm! Snoqualmie Pass looked pathetic though, a few skiers dodging weeds from the looks of it. Hopefully winter will come soon! I see Tim is the only non-newbie so far! You didn't stop in on your way through North Bend??? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 You didn't stop in on your way through North Bend??? I did stop for Starbucks at 5:15AM in North Bend! Was a much drier morning than last week while going over the pass! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 I am guessing the new ECMWF weeklies are UGLY based on this: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-1/22083883That's a locked in Hudson Bay low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Perfect avatar for you Tim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Perfect avatar for you Tim Thought it was fitting. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 I am guessing the new ECMWF weeklies are UGLY based on this: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-1/22083883 Yikes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Yikes. Yikes indeed. I think the GFS might be off in wonderland with some of its scenarios at the end of the operational runs and in some of the ensembles. I see nothing in sight that makes me think this situation will actually change. Mark Nelsen also mentioned the ridge could be with us the 'rest of the winter'. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Only about 1 month of real winter territory left for most so it is entirely possible. And yes I know it could snow even in April, but certainly not of the variety most on here are looking for. I maintain that there seems to be the possibility of things breaking down the end of the month into the beginning of the next...but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if nothing did change with the way things are going. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Any info on why this thread was locked on the other forum? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Any info on why this thread was locked on the other forum? No clue, but this winter is about as lame as it gets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 I am guessing the new ECMWF weeklies are UGLY based on this: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-1/22083883My objective posts about Winter probably being over isn't looking so foolish now. Unfortunately.... Let the Drought of 2014 commence! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 00z EURO in 1 hour 4 minutes. C'mon show SOMETHING. Anything.... please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 00z EURO in 1 hour 4 minutes. C'mon show SOMETHING. Anything.... please My guess it will show a ridge at 240 hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Yep, my guess too.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 The thread on the other forum was locked to encourage people to post here since there is no reason for all of us to monitor two forums with the same people posting about the same things. Am I right? 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 Yep, my guess too.... And a rex block as well. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011500!!chart.gif Seems like a long way from getting cold with that set up. There is nothing even close to tap into at that point. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted January 15, 2014 Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 I wish we could get a persistent ridge in March, April or May. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2014 I wish we could get a persistent ridge in March, April or May.Won't be happening this year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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