July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

96 / 55 today in Klamath Falls. Hottest day of 2016 so far. Almost matched the record of 97 in 1934. Tomorrow could be 98-99 degrees (should beat the record of 96 in 2003 tomorrow). 

 

This was only my 8th 90+ degree day since early June.

 

 

I assume that way more than 8 is normal.

[GHweatherChris]

No.

 

Lets use BLI and AST only. They are much warmer than SEA.

 

I hear Victoria blows them all away!

But the majority of the PNW is below normal, that's a fact, that was my accurate part to Jesse, the rest was a clear jab at you!! For fun, or was it, heck I don't know!! Let's use Hoquiam, that would work!!

[TT-SEA]

But the majority of the PNW is below normal, that's a fact, that was my accurate part to Jesse, the rest was a clear jab at you!! For fun, or was it, heck I don't know!! Let's use Hoquiam, that would work!!

 

Hoquiam has been warmer than normal too.  

 

Where have I ever said the entire region has been warmer than normal?   I have never said that or implied it.

 

Why is forecasting and assessing results locally (Puget Sound region) assumed to be talking about an entire region of the country?     

[Brennan]

In all fairness, if it were January and we were talking about fall and winter temperatures, nobody would give a flying f*** about overall regional temperatures. If it’s not happening at our residential locations, it doesn’t matter. Bellingham, Seattle, Portland, Eugene, Medford etc is where it counts. Central Idaho, Southeastern Oregon, South Central Washington... Nobody cares. Phil is right about the regional forecast, and Tim is right about the Local Forecast. Come fall and winter, only one will matter, and that’s I-5 corridor and a few other outlying areas.  

 

For the sake of everyone here, hopefully locally and regionally the temperature departures match, and they are all minus 10-15* for DEC-FEB. 

[Phil]

In all fairness, if it were January and we were talking about fall and winter temperatures, nobody would give a flying f*** about overall regional temperatures. If it’s not happening at our residential locations, it doesn’t matter. Bellingham, Seattle, Portland, Eugene, Medford etc is where it counts. Central Idaho, Southeastern Oregon, South Central Washington... Nobody cares. Phil is right about the regional forecast, and Tim is right about the Local Forecast. Come fall and winter, only one will matter, and that’s I-5 corridor and a few other outlying areas.

 

For the sake of everyone here, hopefully locally and regionally the temperature departures match, and they are all minus 10-15* for DEC-FEB.

Well, the majority of WA/OR stations are below average, so..

 

Can't have one without the other. Try getting a decent lowland snowstorm under a ridge.

[Jesse]

In all fairness, if it were January and we were talking about fall and winter temperatures, nobody would give a flying f*** about overall regional temperatures. If it’s not happening at our residential locations, it doesn’t matter. Bellingham, Seattle, Portland, Eugene, Medford etc is where it counts. Central Idaho, Southeastern Oregon, South Central Washington... Nobody cares. Phil is right about the regional forecast, and Tim is right about the Local Forecast. Come fall and winter, only one will matter, and that’s I-5 corridor and a few other outlying areas.

 

For the sake of everyone here, hopefully locally and regionally the temperature departures match, and they are all minus 10-15* for DEC-FEB.

Pretty bad analogy. If it is a meaningful cold pattern that is going to give us snow/arctic air, then below average regionally is exactly what you want. Localized, isolated cold anomalies in the winter, especially on the west side, usually means inversions. The "fake cold" that everyone here seems to hate.

 

Aren't we always bemoaning the lack of regional Arctic airmasses/snowstorms these days?

[James Jones]

Pretty bad analogy. If it is a meaningful cold pattern that is going to give us snow/arctic air, then below average regionally is exactly what you want. Localized, isolated cold anomalies in the winter, especially on the west side, usually means inversions. The "fake cold" that everyone here seems to hate.

Fake cold episodes like the one we had in late December/early January are awesome. You can do a hell of a lot worse than sun with highs in the upper 30s, and as we saw, it can even help us along to snow.

[Jesse]

Fake cold episodes like the one we had in late December/early January are awesome. You can do a hell of a lot worse than sun with highs in the upper 30s, and as we saw, it can even help us along to snow.

I actually agree, but those are generally the kind of setups that leave a lot of weenies complaining/left out. Highly localized.

 

A regional cold/snowy pattern is the absolute best way to go in the winter, and something we've been sorely lacking. Hard to argue otherwise.

[Deweydog]

So has the warmth to our north been fake warmth?

 

Perhaps this nina has become strong enough to change air densities.

[Jesse]

So has the warmth to our north been fake warmth?

 

Perhaps this nina has become strong enough to change air densities.

It's been a localized pattern that has had a localized impact on anomalies. Just like inversion-based stuff in the winter.

 

The "fake cold" in the winter certainly isn't fake either. But it gets that name because it generally doesn't reflect 850mb temp anoms for the given area it is occurring in. Kind of like the warmth in the East Puget sound lowlands this month.

[TT-SEA]

And yet... what happens in our own area is what is most important to each of us.

 

Not just East Puget Sound lowlands either.    What about NW OR and SW WA and Bellingham and lower BC?      

 

Its been a warmer than normal month up here.      Big deal.     

 

Why does everything have to be painted with such a broad brush on here?      

[Deweydog]

It's been a localized pattern that has had a localized impact on anomalies. Just like inversion-based stuff in the winter.

 

The "fake cold" in the winter cettainly isn't fake either. But it gets that name because it generally doesn't reflect 850 temp anoms for the given area it is occurring in. Kind of like the warmth in the East Puget sound lowlands this month.

Fake cold is a euphemism. Inversion-based cold is a huge part of our climate norms. Inversions are still a relevant part of the discussion this time of year but for the most part the 500mb pattern drives surface anomalies.

 

Then again, I can remember a certain young man needing some pep talks during CAA events where PDX would push 40 for a high or something like that. I think Brennan has a point that it's a little disingenuous to make like the broadbrush right now TRUMPS the smaller scale to such a degree.

[Timmy Supercell]

I assume that way more than 8 is normal.

 

Yeah most years I should be reaching that by first week of July. August is just a couple days away.

[Jesse]

And yet... what happens in our own area is what is most important to each of us.

 

Not just East Puget Sound lowlands either. What about NW OR and SW WA and Bellingham and lower BC?

 

Its been a warmer than normal month up here. Big deal.

 

Why does everything have to be painted with such a broad brush on here?

It's not. We paint with thin brushes, broad brushes, Bob Ross brushes, etc.

 

It has been aggravating watching you seamlessly shift from making sweeping, arrogant claims about the entire region all of the spring and early summer and now suddenly only caring about your sub-region, which happens to be running anomalously warmer than average compared to the grand majority of the PNW. Probably close to 90% of the region.

 

Tell me you wouldn't be constantly referring to regional anomalies if the PNW had run warm this month, overall. Your sudden shift to local-centric comes off as nothing more than an attempt to save face in the wake of an overconfident, and ultimately inaccurate, regional outlook for this summer.

[Jesse]

Fake cold is a euphemism. Inversion-based cold is a huge part of our climate norms. Inversions are still a relevant part of the discussion this time of year but for the most part the 500mb pattern drives surface anomalies.

 

Then again, I can remember a certain young man needing some pep talks during CAA events where PDX would push 40 for a high or something like that. I think Brennan has a point that it's a little disingenuous to make like the broadbrush right now TRUMPS the smaller scale to such a degree.

Ok.

[TT-SEA]

It's not. We paint with thin brushes, broad brushes, Bob Ross brushes, etc.

It has been aggravating watching you seamlessly shift from making sweeping, arrogant claims about the entire region all of the spring and early summer and now suddenly only caring about your sub-region, which happens to be running anomalously warmer than average compared to the grand majority of the PNW. Probably close to 90% of the region.

Tell me you wouldn't be constantly referring to regional anomalies if the PNW had run warm this month, overall. Your sudden shift to local-centric comes off as nothing more than an attempt to save face in the wake of an overconfident, and ultimately inaccurate, regional outlook for this summer.

Wrong.

 

I made general statements about the pattern in the spring... persistence. That was wrong.

 

I always focus locally when the time arrives.

 

Flip it around. SEA had been stuck in marine layer and cold all month while all around us is warm.

 

I am not complaining and pissed about that?? I would not care about the region then either.

[chinook]

They have done it several times this summer. They are pretty good and very responsible. Growing up too fast though. Got to give them some freedom now.

 

awesome.

 

does Warshington require a boaters card?  

[Deweydog]

Wrong.

 

I made general statements about the pattern in the spring... persistence. That was wrong.

 

I always focus locally when the time arrives.

 

Flip it around. SEA had been stuck in marine layer and cold all month while all around us is warm.

 

I am not complaining and pissed about that?? I would not care about the region then either.

When two uber-subjective worlds collide...

[Jesse]

Nice morning. Getting ready to hit the road to Montana again. Big Sky Resort this time. Hoping to see some thunderstorms at some point on the trip.

[Jesse]

When two uber-subjective worlds collide...

Yours and his?

[Deweydog]

Yours and his?

Exactly. I'm blinded by the runway lights of monthly anomalies.

[TT-SEA]

awesome.

 

does Warshington require a boaters card?

 

Yes. They both have one.

[Front Ranger]

The Seattle area will be in the upper 70s to near 80 from the middle of next week into the weekend. Do I need to calculate the specific departure at each location in the area?

 

SEA will probably run +2 or +3. It is what it is. The maps will likely paint another area of above normal temps across the Puget Sound region from Seattle to Bellingham into lower BC and out to the WA and NW OR coast. That would not happen if only SEA was running much higher departures.

 

Bellingham has only had 2 days below normal in July. Astoria has had none. And they are running +2.6 before today.

 

What part of this is so hard to understand? The pattern later next week is ripe for this to continue. ITS NOT JUST SEA. I don't care about eastern WA being cooler than normal again. In fact... I love it.

 

Nothing you said contradicts what I said. You're overreacting. I was responding to Phil, about SEA specifically because he referenced it.

 

SEA anomalies default to +1 to +2 what the 850s would suggest in the summer, when there's sunshine.

 

Simply means that it shouldn't ever be surprising at this point when "normal" summer patterns produce above normal anomalies at SEA, or below normal patterns produce normal anomalies. Regardless of what's going on at other stations, that's the general rule of thumb now at SEA. Goes way beyond this past month, as you know.

[Front Ranger]

Considering the cool region... nailing the warm Puget Sound region forecast is even more impressive. And I certainly would call a cool forecast in certain patterns (like 2010) if it applied. I have no problem forecasting weather that I do not want. See the July 1-10 period for an example.

 

I tend to be overly-pessimistic overall.

I can't agree with this, because regional patterns trump microscale differences overall. If the overall pattern is going to favor below normal temps, there is simply no way to know what areas will deviate from that, if any. I knew that SEA would deviate towards the high end of anomalies, but that has nothing to do with pattern recognition.

 

You never predicted that the Seattle area would end up warmer than the majority of the region. If you had, your claims of making a "more impressive" forecast would make more sense.

[TT-SEA]

I can't agree with this, because regional patterns trump microscale differences overall. If the overall pattern is going to be favor below normal temps, there is simply no way to know what areas will deviate from that, if any. I knew that SEA would deviate towards the high end of anomalies, but that has nothing to do with pattern recognition.

 

You never predicted that the Seattle area would end up warmer than the majority of the region. If you had, your claims of making a "more impressive" forecast would make more sense.

 

I sort of did forecast that.

 

Phil predicted a cool regional pattern and I said independently that SEA would be cool in the first part of the month... average in the middle... and warmer in the end.   

 

Both were correct. 

 

I did not say Phil was wrong at the regional level.   I went off local history in a bunch of analog years that Phil pointed out.   Worked well.    And not just at SEA but in the entire Puget Sound region.

 

If SEA was a red dot in a sea of blues and purples then I would say SEA is just running warm because its SEA.    Not this month.   SEA fits in very well in our area of the region.   A little cooler than some other stations (BLI and AST and Victoria for example).

[TT-SEA]

I also was right about the nature and timing of the month in the Seattle area.

 

The first part of the month was cool and damp overall.   It rained for 8 days in a row here from 7/3 -7/10 and hardly any since.   It was much sunnier and pleasant in the middle of the month... and warmer at the end (today will be 7 out of 10 days in the 80s).

 

Honestly... it played out exactly as I was expecting here at the beginning of the month.   Exactly.    Call it what you want.

[TT-SEA]

Monday looking surprisingly sunny given the 500mb pattern and warmer than previous runs.

 

Here is Monday at 5 p.m.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.84.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.84.0000.gif

[Jesse]

Looking like a nice marine push tonight.

 

Too bad I'll be out of town to miss it. :'(

[GHweatherChris]

I also was right about the nature and timing of the month in the Seattle area.

 

The first part of the month was cool and damp overall. It rained for 8 days in a row here from 7/3 -7/10 and hardly any since. It was much sunnier and pleasant in the middle of the month... and warmer at the end (today will be 7 out of 10 days in the 80s).

 

Honestly... it played out exactly as I was expecting here at the beginning of the month. Exactly. Call it what you want.

Why does it bother you so much?

 

Its not life or death, you can't add this stuff to a resume, why is it so important to be praised on the internet?

[Front Ranger]

I sort of did forecast that.

 

Phil predicted a cool regional pattern and I said independently that SEA would be cool in the first part of the month... average in the middle... and warmer in the end.   

 

Both were correct. 

 

I did not say Phil was wrong at the regional level.   I went off local history in a bunch of analog years that Phil pointed out.   Worked well.    And not just at SEA but in the entire Puget Sound region.

 

If SEA was a red dot in a sea of blues and purples then I would say SEA is just running warm because its SEA.    Not this month.   SEA fits in very well in our area of the region.   A little cooler than some other stations (BLI and AST and Victoria for example).

 

Yeah, but you and Phil were clearly not agreeing at that point. Seems that if you knew Phil would still be right, you should have clarified. 

[Front Ranger]

I also was right about the nature and timing of the month in the Seattle area.

 

The first part of the month was cool and damp overall.   It rained for 8 days in a row here from 7/3 -7/10 and hardly any since.   It was much sunnier and pleasant in the middle of the month... and warmer at the end (today will be 7 out of 10 days in the 80s).

 

Honestly... it played out exactly as I was expecting here at the beginning of the month.   Exactly.    Call it what you want.

 

Yep, you've already been given credit for getting the details right as far as monthly pattern progression. The second half was warmer than the first half, for pretty much everyone.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, but you and Phil were clearly not agreeing at that point. Seems that if you knew Phil would still be right, you should have clarified. 

 

 

I did know at the time why we were not agreeing.   I said that already.

 

I used local history based on his analog years.   My guess is that I was seeing this situation in the local history without understanding why.    And I assumed Phil must be wrong on a regional level as well.  

 

But we were both right (to some degree).    Although his timing was clearly off for this month.   Even in July he was saying maybe a short break in the middle of the month and then more troughing.   When in reality his early August ridging came 7-10 days early.  

[Geos]

Heating up quick. Already 78°.

Came off a low of about 59°

[Front Ranger]

I did know at the time why we were not agreeing.   I said that already.

 

I used local history based on his analog years.   My guess is that I was seeing this situation in the local history without understanding why.    And I assumed Phil must be wrong on a regional level as well.  

 

But we were both right (to some degree).    Although his timing was clearly off for this month.   Even in July he was saying maybe a short break in the middle of the month and then more troughing.   When in reality his early August ridging came 7-10 days early.  

 

To sum it up, since it's so terribly important...

 

1) Phil was pretty close on the overall regional pattern for July.

2) You were pretty close on how the pattern would progress, cooler to start, warmer towards the end of the month. But you did not actually realize that the Puget Sound north of Tacoma would be warmer than most the region. The exact anomaly patterns that played out, SEA or otherwise, did not actually make your forecast stronger.

3) From a Seattle area anomaly perspective, it was warmer than Phil was thinking it would be. He would have been wise to stick more to the big picture.

[BLI snowman]

Wow, only two more days to argue incessantly about the monthly anomalies/forecast results before a new fixation takes shape!

 

Exciting times we are living in!

[luminen]

^ 

 

Bickering like they do is why I don't post often. 

 

In other news, it's still pretty humid here. YVR reporting DP at 62F. Where I am it's 64F with a temp of 76F. Today might be the hottest of the week here...

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF agrees with the GFS. 

 

Monday is sunny and warm now with slower moving trough.  

 

Tuesday is cool and cloudy.    Guaranteed to be a below normal day even at SEA!

 

Wednesday looks much better... closer to normal.   

 

Then we repeat it all again.   

[Jesse]

In Bonney Lake today with my parents. Feels absolutely lovely at 80°, a breeze, and little to no humidity.

There has really been a delightful lack of humidity this summer, compared to the last few.

[Abbotsford_wx]

It is pretty humid up here. My dew point briefly touched 20C (68F). It's generally been in the mid 60's during the afternoon for the past three days.

[TT-SEA]

In Bonney Lake today with my parents. Feels absolutely lovely at 80°, a breeze, and little to no humidity.

Coming from PA nothing would ever feel humid here. Dewpoints have been sort of high by our standards this summer... almost constantly between 55-60.

 

Dewpoint is 61 right now at SEA. Normally we have days with dewpoints in the 40s in the summer. Not this year.