Phil Posted December 4, 2018 Report Share Posted December 4, 2018 My comments were more related to the monthly anomaly. Perhaps the fact the cold underperformed here has skewed my interpretation of the month, even with the snowfall during the middle of the month. We didn’t even come remotely close to our cold records for November. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 7, 2018 Report Share Posted December 7, 2018 It was pretty cold in November, at least it the places no one cares about. I find it amazing nowadays that, if it didn't happen in the news or on a coast, it didn't happen at all. Just wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 For those who follow Klaus Wolter and his MEI updates, he is retiring at the end of the month. The future of his MEI index is unknown, it will be updated on his MEI website. If it is kept up, it sounds like there will be less frequent updates. I hope he enjoys his retirement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 For those who follow Klaus Wolter and his MEI updates, he is retiring at the end of the month. The future of his MEI index is unknown, it will be updated on his MEI website. If it is kept up, it sounds like there will be less frequent updates. I hope he enjoys his retirement.If his exact formula is listed somewhere, I could find some time to program it for our usage. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 9, 2018 Report Share Posted December 9, 2018 If his exact formula is listed somewhere, I could find some time to program it for our usage. He said this: . If it continues in some fashion, it will probably be updated less frequently, and based on reanalysis data rather than ICOADS. If you want to get in touch with him, here is his contact info: Questions about the MEI and its interpretation should be addressed to: (Klaus.Wolter@noaa.gov), (303) 497-6340. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 11, 2018 Report Share Posted December 11, 2018 Back to the topic of El Nino: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 11, 2018 Report Share Posted December 11, 2018 Does that bottom image mean that it will continue dropping? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 11, 2018 Report Share Posted December 11, 2018 Does that bottom image mean that it will continue dropping?That is a good question. I know it went up when it was red in late November to early December. But I am not exactly sure what this is, but when others have tweeted about the hovmollers, they seem to imply that when it is red, that means the winds are anomalously strong from the West, pushing water to the West, which would warm up the ENSO regions, and when it is blue, the winds are lighter, or maybe even reversed. Maybe Phil can give us more insight. But I have seen the anomalies go down when it is blue just like I have seen it go up when it has been red. Certainly what has happened the last few days corresponds with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Yes, it’s the zonal wind anomaly. To oversimplify things, westerlies (red) between 140E and 170W aid in downwelling OKW generation/propagation, and aid in further downwelling from 170W to 120W. Vice versa for easterlies at those longitudes. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago MoreHeaded towards a solid West Pacific - Maritime continent tropical forcing state. This new intraseasonal state of tropical convection will destructively interfere with El Nino Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Good call. In layman's terms, what was Ventrice talking about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Good call. In layman's terms, what was Ventrice talking about?Essentially, the MJO convective structure (convection over the E-IO/IPWP right now) is in opposition to the typical El Niño convective structure (subsidence over the E-IO/IPWP). IE, the ENSO circulation is being over-ridden by the MJO circulation. This can affect the state of the SSTAs and even the thermocline/subsurface behavior if it’s strong/persistent enough. This enhanced intraseasonal cycle has been present for awhile now, and it’s why I’m bearish on the El Niño until sometime this coming spring, when a strong PV/stable tropical troposphere regime should establish and allow for a more coherent El Niño to develop in 2019, likely continuing through winter 2019/20 as a moderate or strong event. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Essentially, the MJO convective structure (convection over the E-IO/IPWP right now) is in opposition to the typical El Niño convective structure (subsidence over the E-IO/IPWP). IE, the ENSO circulation is being over-ridden by the MJO circulation. This can affect the state of the SSTAs and even the thermocline/subsurface behavior if it’s strong/persistent enough. This enhanced intraseasonal cycle has been present for awhile now, and it’s why I’m bearish on the El Niño until l sometime this coming spring, when a strong PV/stable tropical troposphere regime should establish and allow for a more coherent El Niño to develop in 2019, likely continuing through winter 2019/20 as a moderate or strong event.Thanks. so the MJO causes global weather patterns that are different than what the El Nino is trying to do, and those patterns can even effect SST's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Thanks. so the MJO causes global weather patterns that are different than what the El Nino is trying to do, and those patterns can even effect SST's.Yeah, that’s the gist of it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted December 16, 2018 Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 Essentially, the MJO convective structure (convection over the E-IO/IPWP right now) is in opposition to the typical El Niño convective structure (subsidence over the E-IO/IPWP). IE, the ENSO circulation is being over-ridden by the MJO circulation. This can affect the state of the SSTAs and even the thermocline/subsurface behavior if it’s strong/persistent enough. This enhanced intraseasonal cycle has been present for awhile now, and it’s why I’m bearish on the El Niño until sometime this coming spring, when a strong PV/stable tropical troposphere regime should establish and allow for a more coherent El Niño to develop in 2019, likely continuing through winter 2019/20 as a moderate or strong event. Is this by any chance what happened back in 2015-16 with the strong Nino, because Socal didn't experience the copious rains that usually accompany an El Nino of this magnitude, or was it because that event was more central based as opposed to east based? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 16, 2018 Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 Thanks. so the MJO causes global weather patterns that are different than what the El Nino is trying to do, and those patterns can even effect SST's.Hey Brian, if you'd like I can give you a couple quick visuals which would really help explain the situation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 16, 2018 Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 Hey Brian, if you'd like I can give you a couple quick visuals which would really help explain the situation?Sure, thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 16, 2018 Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 Sure, thanks!I really like the attached image, but unfortunately I couldn't find the El Nino equivalent. Anyways, in the image, the "increased convection" represents the MJO. Simply put, convection over the Australia region results in easterly surface winds which pushes/forces warm waters from the Pacific eastward towards Australia, allowing colder waters to surface near South America and eventually work westward towards the 3.4 ENSO region. Once you have a warm pool developed over the Australia region, the warm waters promote lift, which creates upper level divergence, which continues to create easterly surface winds. With that in mind, we switch to an El Nino, and move the convection into the Pacific. Now the upper level divergence (lifting of air) is centered over the Pacific, and the surface winds allow the warm pool from Australia to slosh back over into the Pacific, essentially covering up the colder waters. This explanation could probably be picked apart by Phil or WebberWeather, but hopefully it at least gave you a good visual understanding of what is happening. The reason you see me mentioning tropical forcing so often is that when it's strong enough, it often overwhelms the current ENSO state if the forcing is located in an opposing region. Any questions, just ask 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 16, 2018 Report Share Posted December 16, 2018 I really like the attached image, but unfortunately I couldn't find the El Nino equivalent. Anyways, in the image, the "increased convection" represents the MJO. Simply put, convection over the Australia region results in easterly surface winds which pushes/forces warm waters from the Pacific eastward towards Australia, allowing colder waters to surface near South America and eventually work westward towards the 3.4 ENSO region. Once you have a warm pool developed over the Australia region, the warm waters promote lift, which creates upper level divergence, which continues to create easterly surface winds. With that in mind, we switch to an El Nino, and move the convection into the Pacific. Now the upper level divergence (lifting of air) is centered over the Pacific, and the surface winds allow the warm pool from Australia to slosh back over into the Pacific, essentially covering up the colder waters. This explanation could probably be picked apart by Phil or WebberWeather, but hopefully it at least gave you a good visual understanding of what is happening. The reason you see me mentioning tropical forcing so often is that when it's strong enough, it often overwhelms the current ENSO state if the forcing is located in an opposing region. Any questions, just askSo as the air lifts, nature has to fill the void, and in the case above, winds from the East fill it. So what Ventrice is talking about is the MJO is in a place to cause the opposite circulation of what you would expect for a Nino, not only affecting the weather in general, but causing winds that can prevent more warming. Is that what is depicted in the hovmoller?http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 5th consecutive week that 3.4 has been at a +1.0 or higher anomaly http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino seems fairly locked in even with the SOI not on board. Coming westerly wind ramp up shouldn't hurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 For whatever reason, OISSTv2 has been running warmer than CDAS, HASISST, and NESDIS since April. I know NOAA uses a running climatology to distinguish ENSO from climate change, but the effect of that should skew it cooler, not warmer. CDAS (which has run warm in the past) is notably cooler. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 I've noticed that as well. Perhaps NOAA is using the 1971-00 or even 1901-00 means still? CDAS pretty clearly states that it's 1981-10 there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 I've noticed that as well. Perhaps NOAA is using the 1971-00 or even 1901-00 means still? CDAS pretty clearly states that it's 1981-10 there. Should qualify as a NINO regardless. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2018 Nino 3.4 is about to take a huge dump. Nino regions 1 and 2 have plimmeted in the last dew days. This will not end up qualifying as an offical Nino IMO. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2018 Report Share Posted December 27, 2018 Nino 3.4 is about to take a huge dump. Nino regions 1 and 2 have plimmeted in the last dew days. This will not end up qualifying as an offical Nino IMO. This winter is going to go down as a massive dud. I would be rooting for the juiciest Nino possible so we don't have a 2nd year +ENSO event next winter. Which is looking very possible. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 27, 2018 Report Share Posted December 27, 2018 This winter is going to go down as a massive dud. I would be rooting for the juiciest Nino possible so we don't have a 2nd year +ENSO event next winter. Which is looking very possible. You just said yesterday you haven't given up on this winter yet. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 You just said yesterday you haven't given up on this winter yet. That was a Wednesday. Optimistic Andrew was on shift. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 This winter is probably going to go down as a massive dud. I would be rooting for the juiciest Nino possible so we don't have a 2nd year +ENSO event next winter. Which is looking very possible. Fixed it. Jim's denial of facts is concerning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 We're technically in a weak Nino now with ONI at +0.7c. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 This not good for us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2018 Report Share Posted December 29, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 Nice little spike in 3.4 the past couple days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 30, 2018 Report Share Posted December 30, 2018 Fixed it. Jim's denial of facts is concerning.Breaking news! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2019 Report Share Posted January 1, 2019 ..ENSO Update...Update prepared by:Climate Prediction Center / NCEPDecember 31 2018 ____ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean.The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific. El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).* *Last weeks SST Departures:Niño 4: +1.0ºCNiño 3.4: +1.0ºCNiño 3: +1.0ºCNiño 1+2: +0.7ºC **Latest weekly SST Departures:Niño 4: +0.8ºCNiño 3.4: +0.7ºCNiño 3: +0.7ºCNiño 1+2: +0.8ºCOceanic Niño Index (ONI): SON (September-October-November) +0.7ºC. Nice cooling throughout the Equatorial Pacific. El Nino prospects fading? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 Forks for everyone!!! Yeah pretty much. What a ridiculously bad wet winter it's been so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Looks like I was onto something. "#ElNino is expected to form and continue through boreal Spring 2019 (~65% chance). However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form."*More: "The traditional Southern Oscillation index was positive, while the equatorial Southern Oscillation index was slightly negative. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect ENSO-neutral." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 I really think they’re underestimating the niño potential during the second half of the year. I get there’s the so called “spring predictability barrier” w/ the ENSO models, but there are a number of reasons (IMO) to predict a healthy niño for 2019/20. This in stark contrast to 2018/19, where I thought they were clearly over-estimating the niño likelihood. I was also attacked pretty ruthlessly here for my bearishness on the niño this winter, lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 I really think they’re underestimating the niño potential during the second half of the year. I get there’s the so called “spring predictability barrier” w/ the ENSO models, but there are a number of reasons (IMO) to predict a healthy niño for 2019/20. This in stark contrast to 2018/19, where I thought they were clearly over-estimating the niño likelihood. I was also attacked pretty ruthlessly here for my bearishness on the niño this winter, lol. Mainly just by one poster, though (who has mysteriously disappeared). To be fair, it still looks like 2018-19 will qualify as a Nino. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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