TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Things get very interesting to the south on Thursday... 6 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Must post a good map to atone for being an assshole for making sure to post the warm map. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 The GFS proving what a piece of shit it is. The GFS has performed the worst I can recall, or rather showing its cold bias worse than I can ever remember. The GFS and EURO are not remotely close on anything starting at just Day 3. 1 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Must post a good map to atone for being an assshole for making sure to post the warm map. Good Lord. Getting into the weeds now Chris. Taking the run as it comes... and that development for Thursday is potentially huge. That is not just a throw away map. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Things get very interesting to the south on Thursday... Similar idea to the GFS with that low swinging by to the south. Nice offshore flow. Now that could actually produce widespread snow here even with the modest airmass. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Good Lord. Getting into the weeds now Chris. Taking the run as it comes... and that development for Thursday is potentially huge. That is not just a throw away map. I am not wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: That works! Same for me. I'm on the almost pepto! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Euro still wants to smash the hood canal with snow. Time will tell. We will definitely get some but doubt we will get the amounts shown. 3 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Darn looks like the no cold pool forms. Ugh. At least maybe we get that wraparound moisture with offshore flow... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, GHweatherChris said: I am not wrong. Yeah... you are. Wednesday is a huge point of discussion and the ECMWF is very important. And now Thursday is potentially huge. It is what is. You can chase me all you want... but I don't care. What I post is pertinent to the discussion... good or bad. 1 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Things get very interesting to the south on Thursday... Wow I bet the 10:1 map is bonkers lol. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 At least next system is better organized than on GFS. Maybe another snow to rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... you are. Wednesday is a huge point of discussion and the ECMWF is very important. And now Thursday is potentially huge. It is what is. You can chase me all you want... but I don't care. What I post is pertinent to the discussion... good or bad. hoping the big one is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Things get very interesting to the south on Thursday... Yep. PDX metro temps fall to 33-34 4 PM - 10 PM Thursday. 32 by 4 AM Friday. Snow! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Even Eugene gets in on the action... 8 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Another snow to rain event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 I'm so sorry for the radio silence y'all... It took 21 years but my Mom's lactose intolerance has finally chosen to thrust itself upon my poor insides with a fury known by only few men. I am suffering. Rob. Please. I am begging you, take over! 6 2 1 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Yep. PDX metro temps fall to 33-34 4 PM - 10 PM Thursday. 32 by 4 AM Friday. Snow! As long as that low is positioned like that and there is even a half decent airmass in the basin, the gorge will do its thing and temps will probably be alright IMO. Of course the track of this low will change a bunch of times between now and then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 That anafront Wednesday night is starting to look like another legit chance of snow for the Seattle area. Damn this is getting complicated. Everett northward looks golden right now IMO. It appears there may be more chances for snow in other area as the pattern unfolds as well. 5 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: I'm so sorry for the radio silence y'all... It took 21 years but my Mom's lactose intolerance has finally chosen to thrust itself upon my poor insides with a fury known by only few men. I am suffering. Rob. Please. I am begging you, take over! Quite descriptive! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Any higher and it might miss Vancouver island at this point That’s about as bad a landing spot as you can get. Non-event south of everett. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I'm so sorry for the radio silence y'all... It took 21 years but my Mom's lactose intolerance has finally chosen to thrust itself upon my poor insides with a fury known by only few men. I am suffering. Rob. Please. I am begging you, take over! Jeez. Sorry. Yeah I got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 We need to make a sacrifice or something to fill in that snowhole in Pierce County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Meh, next. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 It just kills me how close this pattern is to being great. Still no way to know just how the details will pan out of course. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 3 to 6.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Still potentially fun times ahead for some of us! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 I like that the EURO has picked up that feature with the low swinging up from the south. 3 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: That’s about as bad a landing spot as you can get. Non-event south of everett. Next! This is subject to change on very short notice. No matter what it's going to get cold and there will be snow chances. Just be patient. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Day 7 I wonder what will happen with that polar trough over Canada and the little one riding down the ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: It just kills me how close this pattern is to being great. Still no way to know just how the details will pan out of course. Have to say... anafront situation is much more interesting. And those tend to end up farther north than shown. 2 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 No cold air of any kind on this run after the first trough unlike the GFS which is a pure garbage. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 7 Major potential beyond this frame. Ridge position is more favorable. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Have to say... anafront situation is much more interesting. And those tend to end up farther north than shown. It is. The dream of arctic air is dead. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: No cold air of any kind on this run after the first trough unlike the GFS which is a pure garbage. Yeah... have to agree on GFS surface details. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 Maybe we will just have to wait a few extra days. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: No cold air of any kind on this run after the first trough unlike the GFS which is a pure garbage. Now that the euro is showing that anafront potential like the gfs has been for awhile this could be a pretty good situation down there better than nothing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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