November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS Day 10:

We reloading? 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

Maybe they were thinking the 4 degrees at Hoquiam was an actual thing?

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

Odd. By that discussion why did they issue a WSW? And it’s currently 25 degrees at my house. Was I supposed to be in the teens? 

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

Yeah, I was wondering about that as well when I read it. To be fair the Euro predicts temperatures in the high teens and low 20s up here by 10 p.m. tonight which doesn't look likely, but I don't know how they could have known that when they put out this forecast this afternoon. And the Euro was clearly an outlier in that regard. Every other model seems to be verifying as predicted. Perhaps they were referring to the model runs a couple days ago?

[lowlandsnow]

I thought temps were colder than expected

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Maybe they were thinking the 4 degrees at Hoquiam was an actual thing?

Wait. So that's not happening now? I told my relatives in Ocean Shores it was going to be 5 degrees!

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

Curious to know what they were working with initially. Certainly seems like it’s colder than expected to me. Odd. 

[Nov1985]

6 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

GFS keeps 925mb temperatures in the Salish Sea below freezing right through tomorrow evening. In many places it never goes above freezing. 

the warm sector collapses by Wednesday afternoon, and there's nothing to drive a warmup from there on - 

GFS really holds this cold line very differently than the other models. I noticed sliding through hours in yesterdays runs it basically blocks warming progress here while the other models nose warmth up to the CA border. And in GFS, then the colder air fills in from the northwest, never really going above freezing behind the line. That's the ballgame right there. See how it does tomorrow. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Curious to know what they were working with initially. Certainly seems like it’s colder than expected to me. Odd. 

I think they wrote that AFD just to see our reaction to it…They are probably all gathered around one of their computers laughing at our posts as we speak! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

GFS really holds this cold line very differently than the other models. I noticed sliding through hours in yesterdays runs it basically blocks warming progress here while the other models nose warmth up to the CA border. And in GFS, then the colder air fills in from the northwest, never really going above freezing behind the line. That's the ballgame right there. See how it does tomorrow. 

Its really seems to assume the Cascades aren't there.   

[Gummy]

Per Cliff's blog update tonight, he is NOT onboard.  Between Cliff and the NWS the trends are, well, you know.

[Cold Snap]

24 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Nice little cold shot at the beginning of next week. I’m not even worried about next week right now though this weeks gonna be good.
 I’m still just baffled at the turnaround on the models. This was in serious bust territory then it all changed. Don’t think I can recall a time where we went from excellent runs, to terrible runs then back to some really good stuff very close to an event. 

Yeah things definitely turned around today and I’m happy about it. This experience just goes to show you can never be sure until about 24 hours to the event.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, Gummy said:

Per Cliff's blog update tonight, he is NOT on board.  Between Cliff and the NWS the trends are, well, you know.

Basically they read Cliff blog and decided to go conservative. That’s fine. 

[lowlandsnow]

Have dew points and temperatures risen?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Gummy said:

Per Cliff's blog update tonight, he is NOT on board.  Between Cliff and the NWS the trends are, well, you know.

Best sign yet that this will be big.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

31 with a dew point of 18 in Poulsbo. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Have dew points and temperatures risen?

Both continue to fall.  We're set up nicely for tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS PDX high temp Saturday 33

[smerfylicious]

WRF wants to snow hole me with nothing. I hate that model since the GFS upgrade.

[Requiem]

I'm glad the GEM likes us, at the very least. I'm hoping the EURO possesses some better trends tonight, though I'm not holding my breath.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS PDX high temp Saturday 33

Might be their low that day…

[MossMan]

Yeah way too warm tonight. We are screwed. 

[Cloud]

Just now, MossMan said:

Yeah way too warm tonight. We are screwed. 

Bust out da boat! 

[selkirks]

9 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Per Cliff's blog update tonight, he is NOT onboard.  Between Cliff and the NWS the trends are, well, you know.

this is good news. we don't listen to or care about cliff or anything he says

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

18 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

Love the NWS, but this type of AFD has me more hopeful for snow that any GFS 10:1 map. It always seems that we get overperforming systems when stuff gets communicated this way.

Here's a watch, but nothing will probably happen, so don't worry about it. 

Bring out the snow boots!

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah way too warm tonight. We are screwed. 

Total bust dewpoint is only 17 at Seatac not cold enough

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Might be their low that day…

Probably more accurate. Then again if a low dives south of us it would pull in colder Gorge winds.

[Gradient Keeper]

I fully expect the EURO to continue to take a big chunky shit on all of our hopes and dreams of Cold and SNOW!

00z ECMWF in 44 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I fully expect the EURO to continue to take a big chunky shit on all of our hopes and dreams of Cold and SNOW!

00z ECMWF in 44 minutes

We call it Dr. No for a reason.

[DeepFriedEgg]

33/30 in west PDX metro

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

33/30 in west PDX metro

Not bad!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

32F in Springfield. DP 30F.

All the graupel and rain that fell is frozen to the cars and grass.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Light snow and 30 degrees here.

[Anti Marine Layer]

34 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

Bummer

[DeepFriedEgg]

Wow. KHIO (Hillsboro) down to 28/28. Hotbox PDX still at 37/30

[RayRay]

is the radar down for the puget sound area? It seems like there is nothing…

[smerfylicious]

26/25 here in Gold Bar.

Wife is chillin' at the hospital with kiddo. I have older kiddo duty, so I have a cool remote webcam i get to watch I guess. Overlake's NICU is kitted out though. very impressive.

[SouthHillFrosty]