December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Wasn't a cache issue, and just because one said the 6th and one said the 7th doesn't make them 24 hrs apart. I think just a time stamp issue on the map. The 144 hour ensemble mean for the 18z GFS should only be 3 hours behind 144 hr for 12z Euro, right?

 

Either way, you can see the general progression of the ensemble mean for both models is quite different. Much like the operationals were quite different.

Look at the day/date on each of your timestamps. One is valid on Tuesday the 6th, the other is valid on Wednesday the 7th.

 

The two aren't very dissimilar at all. In fact that's pretty good agreement for a week out.

[Phil]

Guys, the EPS and GEFS means aren't that far apart. They're different, but it's nothing earth shattering.

[Phil]

Just because the Euro was 3 hours late being released shouldn't push the run itself back though. I'd think hour 0 would still be 12z.

Exactly. The data and initialization scheme don't change. The computers just process that data later.

[Timmy]

Guys, the EPS and GEFS means aren't that far apart. They're different, but it's nothing earth shattering.

So, can we pick which one we want?

[Perturbed Member]

In case anyone cares, the NAM should become potentially meaningful with the coming 00z run.

[Timmy]

In case anyone cares, the NAM should become potentially meaningful with the coming 00z run.

I guess if by meaningful you mean "bullish". That model is basically garbage

[FroYoBro]

I still am! The trend is our friend with KING EURO!

 

I read all of your posts with the voice of Donald Trump in my head. 

[Kayla]

Surprised no one is commenting on the 00z NAM tonight.

[Timmy]

Surprised no one is commenting on the 00z NAM tonight.

Is it good?

[Deweydog]

Is it good?

It's not out.

[bainbridgekid]

Surprised no one is commenting on the 00z NAM tonight.

It's only out to hour 20.

 

As generally sh*tty as the NAM is, getting in its range sure does make model riding that much more of a full time job.

[MossMan]

Go NAM!!

[Kayla]

It's only out to hour 20.

 

As generally sh*tty as the NAM is, getting in its range sure does make model riding that much more of a full time job.

 

I know... just testing the waters. And it sure does....

[Jbolin]

Surprised no one is commenting on the 00z NAM tonight.

Perhaps it's b/c it's the NAM?

[Timmy]

It's not out.

Probably why no one is commenting on it

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I bet the block is built like a brick house on tonight's runs.

[MossMan]

[Kayla]

Probably why no one is commenting on it

 

But what about the block!!

[Timmy]

It's only out to hour 20.

 

As generally sh*tty as the NAM is, getting in its range sure does make model riding that much more of a full time job.

I am looking forward to the wrf within 84 hours tonight

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stayed socked in up here all day long. Started my month with a sub-40 high. So I get a sub-40 high before my first freeze...May we live in interesting times...

 

39/37 with 0.06" of rain.

[mountainman]

Where is Mr DJ lol

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the GFS has been trending wetter. Interestingly this is different than any snow pattern I can recall since at least late Dec 2003. Moist NW flow with temps cold enough snow. Just haven't seen that very much this century.

[Front Ranger]

Just because the Euro was 3 hours late being released shouldn't push the run itself back though. I'd think hour 0 would still be 12z.

Right. I wasn't saying that changed it.

[Deweydog]

Best thing about the NAM is you get to use your imagination starting with hour 85.

[Gradient Keeper]

I've been at the hospital... home now. 12z ECMWF was the closest run yet to a regional modified blast, and PDX pretty much gets one. Coldest yet Gorge east. I haven't had time to analyze the 12z EURO or 18z GFS in gret detail, but I assume the wonky Kona low and other cut-off low is handed differently. Beyond day 7 ECMWF got close to prolonging the cold.

[Bryant]

I've been at the hospital... home now. 12z ECMWF was the closest run yet to a regional modified blast, and PDX pretty much gets one. Coldest yet Gorge east. I haven't had time to analyze the 12z EURO or 18z GFS in gret detail, but I assume the wonky Kona low and other cut-off low is handed differently. Beyond day 7 ECMWF got close to prolonging the cold.

Hope all is well, DJ

[seattleweatherguy]

DJ praying for u

[Deweydog]

NAM running warmer than the GFS.

 

Dogs and cats living together... Mass hysteria!

[MossMan]

NAM running warmer than the GFS.

 

Dogs and cats living together... Mass hysteria!

Winter cancel!

[bainbridgekid]

Right. I wasn't saying that changed it.

That horse is long dead, but you said hour 144 on the 12z Euro and 18z GFS would be 3 hours apart which is why I thought you were thinking the Euro was all pushed back.

 

Nothing too significant to report from the 00z NAM. Doesn't look particularly cold, but definitely quite a bit of moisture around at the end of the run Sunday night/Monday morning. The low stays North longer than the GFS keeping us in onshore flow though.

[Heavy Snow]

I've been at the hospital... home now. 12z ECMWF was the closest run yet to a regional modified blast, and PDX pretty much gets one. Coldest yet Gorge east. I haven't had time to analyze the 12z EURO or 18z GFS in gret detail, but I assume the wonky Kona low and other cut-off low is handed differently. Beyond day 7 ECMWF got close to prolonging the cold.

Get some rest and get well soon. We need you at your best in a few days. The models have stressed you out.

[EA_TTD]

Hopefully someone hit ctrl+alt+delete on the GFS and we can get back to reality!

[The Swamp]

Free the NAM.

 

Let's get this party started.

[Perturbed Member]

Was the 00z NAM any good? If not we can just dismiss it for being the NAM...

[luvssnow_spokane]

OMG!  I am already down to 41.4 living the dream!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z GFS is running... Join the fun...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=T850&runtime=2016120200&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Bryant]

Was the 00z NAM any good? If not we can just dismiss it for being the NAM...

Dismiss a model you can't even interpret huh?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The NAM was a bit delayed with the cold air vs. the GFS. Nothing earth shattering.

[The Swamp]

Dismiss a model you can't even interpret huh?

 

The NAM is garbage.  Everyone knows the European is far far superior.  Whatever it says, I believe. 

[Perturbed Member]

Dismiss a model you can't even interpret huh?

 

Too lazy too, this forum has spoiled me with all the members who post the relevant images right away. 

 

I only go to the NAM when the GFS and Euro betray us and I need false hope.