PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[TT-SEA]

Control run is also insane with snow...

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Definitely feels like an extra volatile situation. Good news is that the all-too-common #twowesttwosnow campaign will probably be hindered by that initial blocking lobe to our immediate NW later this week. Very strange progression but it makes sense why it could work.

In all honesty, the way it progresses at all is very needle-thready; probably in the top 10% of solutions for Arctic air here. Any difference in timing and it slides east or digs into AK. Pretty lucky it's as close and as impactful as predicted.

I'd rather we get clipped to the east than it goes too far west like the last time. The new Euro was nice but I'd prefer the 00z

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Haven't had a sub-freezing high since the Obama administration.

Anybody else here gone that long?

There was no snow here on the 4th so please stop comparing this location to the airport, which we've established is a shaky station anyway.

There's nothing "shaky" about EUG, it's a just a colder location than you, in general.

And ironically, that station is the only major one west of the Cascades to have seen truly top tier numbers from an Arctic blast in the last 10 years.

[MWG]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC ensemble already way better for snow regionally.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Definitely feels like an extra volatile situation. Good news is that the all-too-common #twowesttwosnow campaign will probably be hindered by that initial blocking lobe to our immediate NW later this week. Very strange progression but it makes sense why it could work.

In all honesty, the way it progresses at all is very needle-thready; probably in the top 10% of solutions for Arctic air here. Any difference in timing and it slides east or digs into AK. Pretty lucky it's as close and as impactful as predicted.

Clearly it’s still a pattern which is evolving on a macro scale, even near initialization.

A more stable approach is always a flatter ridge followed by a pattern breaker like 2008. The model consistency with that was pretty epic, and of course even then there was PLENTY to freak out about every 6-12 hours.

[Timmy]

Warmer/colder runs ahead!

[Deweydog]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC ensemble already way better for snow regionally.

Ima shade darker blue!!!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Control run is also insane with snow...

 

And that's a 10:1 ratio.

[Nov1985]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Control run is also insane with snow...

 

Also nice in that Control run, my little friend is kinda near the mouth of the Columbia. 

[Fircrest]

2 hours ago, RCola said:

Great ensemble improvements!  Worried about flying out of Seattle on the 19th, though. I hope if we do get snow the time frame moves up 12-24 hours. That seems to be the theme this year so fingers crossed.

 

I don't want to get too excited, but this could be one of those rare events where I experience cold and snow out here first and a week later experience the same cold and snow out east. 

 

 

We're flying out of SeaTac on the 16th to Palm Springs and returning on the 19th.  Wondering what conditions we'll face on return? Hopefully we'll get home ok.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Currently throwing all my rugs into the garage. I don’t want the 00z to be tempted. 

[Nov1985]

Oh jeez, all that work, I shoulda just gone to weather .com... 

 

[Winterdog]

51 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow for once my low was way lower than yours! 

I just saw Arlington had a low of 30 this morning.  I've been shrouded in low clouds the whole night.  I'm closer to the mountains here and that often keeps me under low clouds in these situations.

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Currently throwing all my rugs into the garage. I don’t want the 00z to be tempted. 

5 days away... too close now 

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Clearly it’s still a pattern which is evolving on a macro scale, even near initialization.

A more stable approach is always a flatter ridge followed by a pattern breaker like 2008. The model consistency with that was pretty epic, and of course even then there was PLENTY to freak out about every 6-12 hours.

Sorta like this?

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

5 days away... too close now 

2004-05 says hold my beer...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Like Dewey said, This thing came in like a rocket and that worries me. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

Oh jeez, all that work, I shoulda just gone to weather .com... 

 

Book it!!  I think the wintry mix turns to rain about 3:38 PM on Friday.  And I think it's closer to a 59% chance, 58% ?  What-e-ver!!

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

2004-05 says hold my beer...

Fortunately, most models have improved significantly since then. 

GFS, probably not.

[Olive1010]

chill with the east wind

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like the idea of moving into a more inversionary pattern after we get a shot of cold as opposed to raging SW flow. 

[Terreboner]

I'm in a real good mood today.  I almost clicked onto the sports thread which would've been a huge mistake.  I can only imagine what Tim was saying about yesterday's game.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

I'm in a real good mood today.  I almost clicked onto the sports thread which would've been a huge mistake.  I can only imagine what Tim was saying about yesterday's game.

Well at least you get put out of your misery early this week. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Sorta like this?

 

Kinda maybe, although the floataway block usually has to be resolved. That’s been the tendency with most of our favorable blocking patterns the last several years is for them to evolve very quickly as they approach full-latitude status. Here’s the precursor pattern to the 2008 progression…

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just crunched some numbers and it looks like our mean so far this month is 35.1. Not bad! Powered by an average high/low of 39.2/30.9. We should be lower this over the coming week +. 

[Nov1985]

The xmas warmup is too far out to write. But the early draft looks less benign than I could imagine. Just not a lot of big rain/wind events in the cards this season. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is a little slower with the arctic air, but well... It gets there...

[Olive1010]

This is a freaking lie this sucks lol 

[SnowPlz]

Snyder starting to believe 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 42 after a low of 37. Some really great model trends this morning I’m glad this kind of came out of nowhere within the 7 day timeframe rather than it showing up 14 days out. I had a feeling we would see something pop up out of nowhere given the blocky pattern we are in.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Back here in the present it seems this low level cold episode is off to kind of a lame start. Lots of mid level clouds hanging around, only fell to 38 last night. Mostly cloudy and 43 currently, hopefully we can see some clearing tonight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's going to be a long week. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I'm in a real good mood today.  I almost clicked onto the sports thread which would've been a huge mistake.  I can only imagine what Tim was saying about yesterday's game.

Randy and I were not happy!   Its all archived in the sports thread.  

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Back here in the present it seems this low level cold episode is off to kind of a lame start. Lots of mid level clouds hanging around, only fell to 38 last night. Mostly cloudy and 43 currently, hopefully we can see some clearing tonight.

I got us a table, what do you want to drink? They have strawberry lemonade!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not much sense looking at the snow details but i'd really love to see a regional old school arctic front crash clear into Salem.

[Brennan]

Told myself I'd take a little break from the models yesterday... Woke up this morning... Cancelled that plan. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not much sense looking at the snow details but i'd really love to see a regional old school arctic front crash clear into Salem.

I don't even remember what an Arctic front is like.

[Requiem]

I am... cautiously one foot on board-- hopefully we get some consensus on a nice overrunning event.

[Guest administrator]

Kicking off a new thread. Will merge into the older one if we need a Part III or if we hit January.