Hawksfan2008 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Weather forecasting is obviously a data driven skill but there is certainly an art to it as well. I think one of the most important skills is to leverage experience/history without letting it be too strong of a bias. Major arctic events have happened and will happen again. Why not us!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Better ensemble improvement. Still have a bit of work to do How do these look for PDX? 3 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: lol if we hit January I like our odds! 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Joe almost seems annoyed every time there's an Arctic airmass. For all the "its 10 days out, not going to verify" talk, this cuts boths ways. Just because its modeled, today, to warm up 10 days out doesn't mean it will 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 53 minutes ago, Requiem said: I do think this looks a bit more widespread than December 2021-- and more conducive at this point to some sort of overrunning event geared more towards us. A nice overrunning event with strong east winds would be great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: My location not much just incredibly cold. A few snow showers, but nothing accumulated. I believe there was thundersnow around Troutdale. The highlight was back to back mornings of 12 degrees and high temps around 30 with clear skies and no east wind. No backdoor cold air support. Such an unusual true northerly blast that one was. Top tier for when it occurred. If it had occurred a month later, we would be able to point to it as the most recent region-wide top tier Arctic outbreak...almost certainly would have had highs in the mid 20s in the Willamette Valley, with around 20 for the Puget Sound. That was the crazy thing about 2010-11. It had 2 incredible, top tier Arctic events for when they occurred, but still ended up being fairly underwhelming for most areas south of Olympia. 2 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Even if the arctic front stalls in Washington, an undercutting low can flood the entire Willamette Valley with Gorge provided arctic air. When I lived over there I preferred those scenarios more than the true arctic front coming through as intense convergence occured more explosively. Seems like recently (25 years or so), these arctic fronts come through and only provide flurries in Oregon. I'd rather have 30 degrees and heavy snow than 15 degrees and sunshine. That's just me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 57 minutes ago, Requiem said: I do think this looks a bit more widespread than December 2021-- and more conducive at this point to some sort of overrunning event geared more towards us. FWIW, last December’s event looked pretty widespread in the 5-7 day range. Things just tweaked and adjusted from there to a more compact, north/south oriented gig. 6 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 All that being said, what a strange 12" snowstorm we had here. Temperature fluctuated between 32 and 34 degrees all day. A true Cascade concrete storm, not the norm over here in the high desert. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Looks like the icon is about to drop the hammer. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 I just can't get over the strength of the high pressure being shown. 7 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Cloud said: 12z EPS spaghetti for the next 7 days.. you can count the -5 to 0C members with one hand! Very cold signal. I needed more than one hand. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Phil Posted December 12, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 That might be the coldest EPS run I’ve ever seen for the west-central CONUS at that range. 99th percentile stuff. 10 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Requiem said: How do these look for PDX? It's easy to forget about the uninhabited frontiers of the west . (Personally I find the 24-hr snow version much easier to digest) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: Weeklies just came in and looks like it wants to warm us up around new years before dunking us in the freezer once more second half of january Of course January will be the single warm month this winter in the West, sandwiched between cold and more cold. Seems to happen every year. 3 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Joe almost seems annoyed every time there's an Arctic airmass. He hates cold and snow and hates hearing from the weenies that follow it. Shouldn't detract from his education or skill, but he is about as close to an anti-Bastardi in nearly every possible sense. East Coast Snow Weenie, meet West Coast Snow Meanie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: Of course January will be the single warm month this winter in the West, sandwiched between cold and more cold. Seems to happen every year. In all seriousness, a major cold snap in this timeframe does historically make a very cold January quite unlikely. Doesn't mean it couldn't remain somewhat chilly or occasionally snowy, but none of the big December 15-25 focused arctic air masses in the last century had another big event in January (2008, 1998, 1990, 1983, 1964, 1924). 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 18z GFS MIGHT be interesting. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: In all seriousness, a major cold snap in this timeframe does historically make a very cold January quite unlikely. Doesn't mean it couldn't remain somewhat chilly or occasionally snowy, but none of the big December 15-25 focused arctic air masses in the last century had another big event in January (2008, 1998, 1990, 1983, 1964, 1924). Any of those Tonga eruption years??? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: In all seriousness, a major cold snap in this timeframe does historically make a very cold January quite unlikely. Doesn't mean it couldn't remain somewhat chilly or occasionally snowy, but none of the big December 15-25 focused arctic air masses in the last century had another big event in January (2008, 1998, 1990, 1983, 1964, 1924). There are no rulez. There's gonna be a big fat block that props itself up this weekend and it'll stick through March. 4 1 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, Terreboner said: All that being said, what a strange 12" snowstorm we had here. Temperature fluctuated between 32 and 34 degrees all day. A true Cascade concrete storm, not the norm over here in the high desert. Awesome event for you!! Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, JW8 said: Famous last words... Which is exactly why that piece of crap was unfollowed 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: There are no rulez. There's gonna be a big fat block that props itself up this weekend and it'll stick through March. 4 2 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted December 12, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Which is exactly why that piece of crap was unfollowed Joe is a great guy and probably an even better father... Wouldn't call him that personally 11 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: In all seriousness, a major cold snap in this timeframe does historically make a very cold January quite unlikely. Doesn't mean it couldn't remain somewhat chilly or occasionally snowy, but none of the big December 15-25 focused arctic air masses in the last century had another big event in January (2008, 1998, 1990, 1983, 1964, 1924). Forever cursed in January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Is that Jim's brain the other day? 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Any of those Tonga eruption years??? Nope!!! But we probably have El Chichón to partially thank for the fun 1983-85 stretch. Back to back to back winters with pretty sexy and long lasting regional cold anomalies for at least a month, which hasn't been achieved since. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 50 minutes ago, JW8 said: Famous last words... I tweeted back that yesterday's EPS showed below normal 2m temps for Western WA, maybe an inversion? But definitely trended warmer today. Was trying to point out that it was far from certain. I got a like to my tweet, from, of all people, Judah. Not sure if that's good or bad. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Seems like cold air is spill south a lot faster on this run heading into day 5 on the 18z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 GFS looks slightly farther east with the trough. Probably worse for snow but I prefer it more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Doinko said: GFS looks slightly farther east with the trough. Probably worse for snow but I prefer it more 18Z GFS is much drier for Saturday... but its the 18Z run so it will likely go back to farther west on the 00Z run. 3 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: Seems like cold air is spill south a lot faster on this run heading into day 5 on the 18z. 15 degrees colder for Bellingham on this run than 12z for hour 135 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS is much drier for Saturday... but its the 18Z run so it will likely go back to farther west on the 00Z run. Probably but I'm hoping it doesn't. The Arctic air coming into the Columbia Basin is probably better for Portland than hoping a north/south blast works out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS is much drier for Saturday... but its the 18Z run so it will likely go back to farther west on the 00Z run. Really don't even dig but the basic idea is still the same. Details. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Hmmmmm 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS is much drier for Saturday... but its the 18Z run so it will likely go back to farther west on the 00Z run. We're just looking at fine details at this point.. which will change over and over again next few days. But it seems like the overall consensus is that the arctic front will drop over us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Really don't even dig but the basic idea is still the same. Details. Yeah... its much colder for the weekend than the 12Z GFS but also not in agreement with the ECMWF/EPS on digging so the GFS is probably still playing catch up. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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