Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Minny_Weather]

According to a local met from channel 8, which I have total faith in, he says back loaded winter for us. We shall see!

Dean is literally a god, if that's who you're talking about. He can nail & has nailed forecasts over 2 weeks out.

[CentralNebWeather]

Back loaded winters are usually good for us in the Central Plains.  Our biggest storms, at least in Central Nebraska, seem to happen in Feb., March, and April.  The only problem is they tend to melt away quicker.

[gabel23]

Dean is literally a god, if that's who you're talking about. He can nail & has nailed forecasts over 2 weeks out.

Yep, I agree 100%!!! The guy in my opinion is one of the best mets I have ever followed! Back when he was first with channel 8 in the 90's he was scary accurate when it came to predictions. 

[Niko]

Accu-Weather has it chilly right through March!

[westMJim]

 Here in Grand Rapids we are still running behind last winter in the total snow fall department.  Last winter on this date Grand Rapids had 46.9” and this year we are now at 40.1” we shall see how this winter season ends up.  The 30 year mean seasonal snow fall mean here in Grand Rapids is 77.4”. The range of seasonal snow fall in the last 30 years has been from 51.2” in the 2011/12 season to 116.0” in the 2013/14 season. The last two seasons have seen only 60.1” last winter and 61.1” in the 2015/16 season. The last time Grand Rapids had 3 winters in a row of below average snow fall was in the mid 1970’s (the 1972/73 to 1975/76 seasons) 

[jaster220]

Here in Grand Rapids we are still running behind last winter in the total snow fall department.  Last winter on this date Grand Rapids had 46.9” and this year we are now at 40.1” we shall see how this winter season ends up.  The 30 year mean seasonal snow fall mean here in Grand Rapids is 77.4”. The range of seasonal snow fall in the last 30 years has been from 51.2” in the 2011/12 season to 116.0” in the 2013/14 season. The last two seasons have seen only 60.1” last winter and 61.1” in the 2015/16 season. The last time Grand Rapids had 3 winters in a row of below average snow fall was in the mid 1970’s (the 1972/73 to 1975/76 seasons)

 

Here in Grand Rapids we are still running behind last winter in the total snow fall department.  Last winter on this date Grand Rapids had 46.9” and this year we are now at 40.1” we shall see how this winter season ends up.  The 30 year mean seasonal snow fall mean here in Grand Rapids is 77.4”. The range of seasonal snow fall in the last 30 years has been from 51.2” in the 2011/12 season to 116.0” in the 2013/14 season. The last two seasons have seen only 60.1” last winter and 61.1” in the 2015/16 season. The last time Grand Rapids had 3 winters in a row of below average snow fall was in the mid 1970’s (the 1972/73 to 1975/76 seasons)

 

That last sentence is interesting. First because as stated would be 4 seasons, not 3. Second, because those seasons were followed by several great ones!

[Tom]

Latest IRI seasonal forecast suggesting a cooler/wet look well into Spring...

 

 

[Tom]

It has been my opinion, before the season began, that Feb would be the coldest month relative to averages across our sub forum.  Seasonal models are certainly trending that way, esp the CFSv2/JMA and the ECMWF. Take a look at the latest JMA monthlies and you can get the idea of polar blocking/NE PAC/SE ridge and a real active storm track across our sub forum, esp near the MW/GL's region.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201801.D1100_gl0.png

[hlcater]

It has been my opinion, before the season began, that Feb would be the coldest month relative to averages across our sub forum. Seasonal models are certainly trending that way, esp the CFSv2/JMA and the ECMWF. Take a look at the latest JMA monthlies and you can get the idea of polar blocking/NE PAC/SE ridge and a real active storm track across our sub forum, esp near the MW/GL's region.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201801.D1100_gl0.png

Looks like more of the same, trough in the east ridge in the west. NW flow party????

 

It's just pattern that hasn't worked for us all winter, why would it work now?

[Tom]

Looks like more of the same, trough in the east ridge in the west. NW flow party????

 

It's just pattern that hasn't worked for us all winter, why would it work now?

Sure, you will certainly see NW Flow this month but it will also be mixed in with systems that come out of the south.  The LRC says look out for NW Flow sometime mid month but doesn't necessarily mean it will lock all month.

[gabel23]

Pretty impressive cold that we had for four weeks starting around the solstice and lasting just after the new year. It was the 4th coldest stretch around our parts and coldest in over 20 years!! 

[jaster220]

Pretty impressive cold that we had for four weeks starting around the solstice and lasting just after the new year. It was the 4th coldest stretch around our parts and coldest in over 20 years!! 

 

Dang! @ those top (2) being almost twice as cold! This has been bad enough, since we've become winter whimps with all the heat lately. I checked my tables, and up to today Jan 18th, number of days AOB 32º in Marshall is almost neck-n-neck with 2013-14. This winter edging out that season with 72% vs 71% of the days. Notably tho, in 2014 we were just heading into the longest stretch of cold (33 days) and this year the opposite is happening. I'm not rooting for bitter cold tbh, I'd rather the snow. Getting both 4 yrs ago was truly magical stuff

[Niko]

Lets see how February goes. This month tends to be stormy, so I am hoping for a couple of strong southern systems to pound hard here in SEMI. Ofc, others as well that have been snowless thus far this Winter season.

[BrianJK]

Tom - have we climbed above double digits for season snowfall?

[FV-Mike]

[jaster220]

Winter%202017-2018%20Midpoint%201.png

 

Nice map and looks accurate, I'm on the cusp of that 3 foot "finger" that juts east into SCMI

[Tom]

Tom - have we climbed above double digits for season snowfall?

Are you being serious or facetious?

[BrianJK]

Are you being serious or facetious?

Serious. I wasn’t sure what the MLK clipper put our tally at.

[Tom]

Serious. I wasn’t sure what the MLK clipper put our tally at.

Gotcha Brian, ya, I wasn’t sure if you were joking around or not.

[Tom]

WxBell's Feb-Mar temp and precip anomaly forecasts...a lot of winter...

[jaster220]

From OHwx over at Amwx. One of the few who will take time to prepare a lengthy analysis like Tom does for us here in this forum/sub. He normally focuses on OH peeps, but this kinda applies to all of us

 

"It's definitely early still and I definitely may be wrong...though I'm pretty impressed with how things are lining up for cold delivery into our region in February. To elaborate a bit...

 

The big anti-cyclonic wave break in the North Pacific later this week closes off as a block and moves towards the pole, tanking the AO and dislodging a lot of cold from Siberia into Canada next week. Then, as the initial ridge builds on or just off the west coast around the turn of the month the cold of Canada comes south. With the MJO potentially moving through phases 8-1 during the first half or so of February and likely return of the NE Asian/NW Pac PV lobe that has caused some EPO drops so far this winter, think the ridge maintains on the West Coast and likely builds back north into AK during the first week of February, possibly causing another significant shot of Arctic air into the central/eastern US during the second week of February. Thereafter, I don't see any signs the pattern flips to warm anytime soon, so even if the last 10 days of February feature some moderation I think the month as a whole finishes quite cold overall.

 

There is, FWIW, decent model support for this type of solution. The CFS and Euro weeklies have for quite a while had tall and persistent ridging over the west coast into AK for a good chunk of February...I think the Euro weeklies 2m temp forecasts are much too warm given its 500mb forecast. It's not a great idea to put a ton of stock in those long range models, but their general agreement and persistence in showing a -EPO February has been impressive IMO. Other techniques that I sometimes question, but seem to have some utility in highlighting bigger events, such as the Recurring Rosby Wavetrain technique and to some extent the Bering Sea Rule suggest a potential big cold shot by around the middle of February...though I think it arrives sooner as the pattern evolution starting next week appears to support the first of the cold arriving pretty promptly to start February. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles keep trending colder at the end of their runs as the first shot of arctic air moves south.

 

As for bigger snow potential, will have to watch the initial transition period during the first few days of February. I also think there may be a brief relax and then reload the second week of the month, with some hints that some STJ energy may slip under the western ridge in that timeframe as well. If cold isn't too suppressive in that timeframe something may work out...I think the pattern may support southern portions of the sub (the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes) more than northern portions around then.

 

I suppose calling for a potential top 10 cold February in parts of the region is a bold/seemingly hype call, and I'll freely admit there's time for this to fall apart, but I see a lot supporting significant cold that lasts a good chunk of the month, with little opportunity for big warmth to wipe it out before the month is over. I obviously doubt we top or even come too close to February of 2015 just because of how extreme it was, though there are some similarities in the pattern and a somewhat tamer version isn't too unreasonable IMO"

[Tom]

From OHwx over at Amwx. One of the few who will take time to prepare a lengthy analysis like Tom does for us here in this forum/sub. He normally focuses on OH peeps, but this kinda applies to all of us

 

"It's definitely early still and I definitely may be wrong...though I'm pretty impressed with how things are lining up for cold delivery into our region in February. To elaborate a bit...

 

The big anti-cyclonic wave break in the North Pacific later this week closes off as a block and moves towards the pole, tanking the AO and dislodging a lot of cold from Siberia into Canada next week. Then, as the initial ridge builds on or just off the west coast around the turn of the month the cold of Canada comes south. With the MJO potentially moving through phases 8-1 during the first half or so of February and likely return of the NE Asian/NW Pac PV lobe that has caused some EPO drops so far this winter, think the ridge maintains on the West Coast and likely builds back north into AK during the first week of February, possibly causing another significant shot of Arctic air into the central/eastern US during the second week of February. Thereafter, I don't see any signs the pattern flips to warm anytime soon, so even if the last 10 days of February feature some moderation I think the month as a whole finishes quite cold overall.

 

There is, FWIW, decent model support for this type of solution. The CFS and Euro weeklies have for quite a while had tall and persistent ridging over the west coast into AK for a good chunk of February...I think the Euro weeklies 2m temp forecasts are much too warm given its 500mb forecast. It's not a great idea to put a ton of stock in those long range models, but their general agreement and persistence in showing a -EPO February has been impressive IMO. Other techniques that I sometimes question, but seem to have some utility in highlighting bigger events, such as the Recurring Rosby Wavetrain technique and to some extent the Bering Sea Rule suggest a potential big cold shot by around the middle of February...though I think it arrives sooner as the pattern evolution starting next week appears to support the first of the cold arriving pretty promptly to start February. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles keep trending colder at the end of their runs as the first shot of arctic air moves south.

 

As for bigger snow potential, will have to watch the initial transition period during the first few days of February. I also think there may be a brief relax and then reload the second week of the month, with some hints that some STJ energy may slip under the western ridge in that timeframe as well. If cold isn't too suppressive in that timeframe something may work out...I think the pattern may support southern portions of the sub (the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes) more than northern portions around then.

 

I suppose calling for a potential top 10 cold February in parts of the region is a bold/seemingly hype call, and I'll freely admit there's time for this to fall apart, but I see a lot supporting significant cold that lasts a good chunk of the month, with little opportunity for big warmth to wipe it out before the month is over. I obviously doubt we top or even come too close to February of 2015 just because of how extreme it was, though there are some similarities in the pattern and a somewhat tamer version isn't too unreasonable IMO"

That was a nice write up.  Thanks for sharing.  Lines up quite well with what I'm seeing and I can bet that February will by far be the most widespread BN temp anomaly for met Winter across our subforum.  That was my call from the get-go and if today's Euro weeklies mean anything, it basically suggests the "Ferocious February Open" is for real and may never really pull back out of this cold till sometime in the first half of March.

[hlcater]

That was a nice write up.  Thanks for sharing.  Lines up quite well with what I'm seeing and I can bet that February will by far be the most widespread BN temp anomaly for met Winter across our subforum.  That was my call from the get-go and if today's Euro weeklies mean anything, it basically suggests the "Ferocious February Open" is for real and may never really pull back out of this cold till sometime in the first half of March.

NW FLOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWW. yay

[Minny_Weather]

NW FLOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWW. yay

We should start a thread for this event.

[Tabitha]

From OHwx

.....such as the Recurring Rosby Wavetrain technique.....

 

 

Well, if you have that on your side...what could go wrong?

 

Lol.

[Tom]

NW FLOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWW. yay

I'm sure there will be waves of NW Flow but the month of Feb looks to open with a favorable SW Flow or PAC waves coming out of the Rockies...

 

 

 

 

 

Not a bad signal for a wetter pattern...

 

[Minny_Weather]

There are many signals that point to a wet start to next month.  This mid range model (a pretty good one) agrees:

I'm thinking we have a good shot at a storm somewhere in the Plains to open up February. Where that hits is obviously up in the air. 

[Tabitha]

0z German Icon with absolutely nothing through Day 8.5 (that's as far as it goes)

 

0z GFS with absolutely nothing here through Day 12.

 

0z Canadian with absolutely nothing here through Day 10 (that's as far as it goes).

 

Canadian does have a snowstorm from Kansas City through Wisconsin towards Day 8.

 

I liked it in the past; how even though everyone knew those silly GFS fantasy storms were make-believe; at least they made the webpage look pretty with all the bright colors.

 

Now we don't even get that.

 

When will it end?

[jaster220]

Well, since we've actually just had a real live Big Dogger hit at least a portion of our sub, it's interesting to note that compared to avg, the worst has by far been well east of that. Too bad my 50-60F rainers still qualify me for a "Severe winter" in some kind of alternate twisted universe, lol

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

If theres anyone that should be pissed its OkWX guy here. They have had absolutely zero wintry systems hit him. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The Germans have a Low coming out of the Rockies by Day 7.5

 

The weather has been boring here

Forever and On...

So I lift up My Cup

And Adore Babylon!

LOL. 

[OKwx2k4]

If theres anyone that should be pissed its OkWX guy here. They have had absolutely zero wintry systems hit him.

Yessir. I'm losing my patience. That's a nice way to put it. Lol. I don't know how I can literally get missed in every single direction by what is pretty much the winter I drew up back in the fall. Had 4 inches fall 25 miles from me and I had bare ground for the coldest 10 day stretch since 2000. Sorry for being so quiet as of late but futility is quite frustrating.

[jaster220]

Yessir. I'm losing my patience. That's a nice way to put it. Lol. I don't know how I can literally get missed in every single direction by what is pretty much the winter I drew up back in the fall. Had 4 inches fall 25 miles from me and I had bare ground for the coldest 10 day stretch since 2000. Sorry for being so quiet as of late but futility is quite frustrating.

 

Back in '87-88 my home county in SMI was the ONLY county that never got a 4" plowable snowfall. Every direction on the compass around us did. Talk about being "donut holed"!  I had snowmobiles back then of the vintage variety, and a moist 4" (we rarely got LES there) was kinda the threshold between snow you could ride on or not. We'd get the 2 or 2.5" and one county (pick a direction - any direction) would get the 4+ amounts. I've experienced my share of crappy winters in case someone thinks looking at my signature line that the recently minted list of greatness was always the norm. Couldn't be further from the truth. Hang in there bud, and hoping this somehow delivers down your way in the next month-ish 

[Niko]

Yessir. I'm losing my patience. That's a nice way to put it. Lol. I don't know how I can literally get missed in every single direction by what is pretty much the winter I drew up back in the fall. Had 4 inches fall 25 miles from me and I had bare ground for the coldest 10 day stretch since 2000. Sorry for being so quiet as of late but futility is quite frustrating.

Keep an eye on February.....

[Niko]

Back in '87-88 my home county in SMI was the ONLY county that never got a 4" plowable snowfall. Every direction on the compass around us did. Talk about being "donut holed"!  I had snowmobiles back then of the vintage variety, and a moist 4" (we rarely got LES there) was kinda the threshold between snow you could ride on or not. We'd get the 2 or 2.5" and one county (pick a direction - any direction) would get the 4+ amounts. I've experienced my share of crappy winters in case someone thinks looking at my signature line that the recently minted list of greatness was always the norm. Couldn't be further from the truth. Hang in there bud, and hoping this somehow delivers down your way in the next month-ish 

I remember that year. It was brutal in nyc w ton of snow. I remember getting a frostbite walking to my car (parked 3blocks away) leaving a party. I had a mark underneath my eye for a few days. Everyone was asking me if I was into fight or somethin.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well its almost Feb and and we have about 9 inches total for the winter so far. Have come to the conclusion that we will remain below average in snow this winter. No way we can possibly catch up unless a miracle happens like that storm a week ago. 

[Niko]

NYC Central Park had just 19.1" of snow in 1987-88...well below normal.

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

It was Dec/88, my bad. I remember that December being brutal and then, the rest of the Winter was useless (J,F,even early M).

[Niko]

There was, in fact a very large and localized snowstorm over Long Island on 13 December 1988...and the AMS Journal found the event so anomalous & localized, that they devoted the following scholarly article to it...generally pages 9 through 13 of the PDF file.

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281995%29010%3C0005%3AWWFTTE%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Yup, I remember that was the only month we experienced snow and very cold temps. Come January, Winter decided to leave and never came back. Go figure!

[Niko]

Winters got very good around there after 2000...excellent, in fact. 

Indeed. I remember from 2002- 2005 or up until 2006, each Winter was a 40"+. Absolutely great Winters. Then, 2007, 2008 were very dull. Around 2009 and thereafter it began getting great again, especially, Winter 2010-11. I remember Dec/2010, that crazy monster blizzard. Everything was buried.

 

Btw: they are still saying that Blizzard 2006 broke the all time record snowfall in the city. The old one was back on Dec 27th,1947. I can honestly say that when I went to Manhattan w friends to explore the blizzard scenery the next day, it looked more like 20" had fallen, not 25+.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/12/nyregion/big-snowstorm-sets-record-in-new-york-and-disrupts-travel.html

[Niko]

The Feb 2006 "blizzard" was the worst 25 inch blizzard ever (officially 26.9")!  It was gone in like 2 days after a big warm up. 

 

The measurement might have been right; it might have been wrong...hard to say.  Anyway, the total was topped on Jan 22, 2016 with a 27.5" storm in Central Park, NYC

That warm-up just sucked it away like a vacuum. Huge piles of snow (mountains). That was a great blizzard. Also, they did not know where the deformation band would set up and eventually ended up over NYC. Great storm.