PNW December 2022 - Part II

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

It’s over.

Spring is when we can finally get some D**n snow!

[lowlandsnow]

I doubt the GFS will cave given the ICON and NAM runs

[Requiem]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

I doubt the GFS will cave given the ICON and NAM runs

not that I doubt this but the NAM and ICON actually have little to no bearing on the GFS especially in situations where models are flip-flopping like crazy 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

[Cloud]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 2 (4-run trend)

Base of the ridge is looking a lot like the 18z ECMWF… 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 2 (4-run trend)

Pretty significant improvement in the base of the block

[Terreboner]

Just now, Requiem said:

Pretty significant improvement in the base of the block

Yes, the block is eating his pre-Christmas cookies it looks like.

[Doinko]

Less development off of the BC coast

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2.5 850s

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Yes, the block is eating his pre-Christmas cookies it looks like.

Block and I definitely have something in common then...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Base of the ridge is looking a lot like the 18z ECMWF… 

Looking good so far…..

[Meatyorologist]

Could just be some mesoscale wobbling. Euro will be telling, since it's apparently all alone now...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cave you mother fukkker CAVE!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[jakerepp]

This type of model riding is (what I'm telling myself) the reason I can live with not being in a snowy climate.

 

[Timmy]

Still worlds different than the euro

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (4-run trend)

Base growing and pacific troughing retreating.

[Cloud]

Meh…

[Cloud]

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

This type of model riding is (what I'm telling myself) the reason I can live with not being in a snowy climate.

 

I have a joke for you but not appropriate for here.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Meh…

Thats the spirit!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Definitely moving towards euro. 

[Requiem]

Not a fully cave but a significant difference in the amount of cold delivered to the east side.

[Kolk1604]

Still have the GEM also (so far anyway) 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Meh…

Who cares.  The GFS is roadkill.  I could care less if it had us at 100 degrees.

[selkirks]

26 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Conflicting reports 

as always

[Kolk1604]

Yeah... Hour 36

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Not a fully cave but a significant difference in the amount of cold delivered to the east side.

Much more arctic leakage at hour 84 east of the cascades, good for pdx

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend) At least we got rid of that stronger low to our northwest.

[Timmy]

That northern low is 11mb higher at hour 90, that is a big cave.  Hoping that the euro has a better handle on the details.  But that is substantial

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Timmy said:

That northern low is 11mb higher at hour 90, that is a big cave.  Hoping that the euro has a better handle on the details.  But that is substantial

Definitely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is better, but it's still not even close. 

[jakerepp]

5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I have a joke for you but not appropriate for here.

It's after dark, ain't it? Come on, go for it.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Gfs not caving yet… too much strength with the PV

[Meatyorologist]

Differences on RGEM are actually much more minor than I thought. Still looks good.

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS has significantly less cyclogenesis up north compared to the previous runs. A solid step towards the euro and other colder solutions. Not a total cave though.  

The NAM is pretty disappointing. Smaller steps back on the ICON and RGEM. I'm not sure I've ever seen the models struggle this much. It isn't even clear which model to crown king now given they have all had massive swings at this point.  

[Kolk1604]

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Gfs not caving yet… too much strength with the PV

The fact the gfs is changing so much means it can’t be trusted

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS run is over Day 4.5 to 5..... Scour out fast.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

The fact the gfs is changing so much means it can’t be trusted

I feel like the GFS has changed the least in the last 36 hours, though...