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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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A big improvement over the 12z GFS. That is, until you look at Friday and beyondimage.thumb.png.db1911670304cce360dbb8037305aa54.pnggfs-deterministic-seattle-t2m_f_dprog-1671300000-1671429600-1672110000-10.thumb.gif.906c3a50fa941a9bcdb8a04943ae96bb.gif

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

It was supposed to warm up to 38 today, and tonight's low is supposed to be 35.

It's 34 now and I don't think we're even gonna reach the projected low.

Why are weather apps so bad?

Sorry I was high when I created the weather apps. 

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1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Hoping it trends south. Yesterday it was looking like Portland would be the bullseye. If that doesn't work out maybe the Thursday system could start as snow

I'd be surprised if it trended south by much. Tuesday is pretty close to being a lost cause for PDX IMO. 

The RGEM does toy with the idea of that southern low coming in a bit further north as well and giving snow to PDX. The air just isn't that cold yet at that point though but maybe the gorge might help out a bit here. 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_70.png

 

Hoping the cold pool is deep enough to get a quick inch or two before it turns to sleet and ZR on Thursday is probably the best bet right now. Overall things don't look very good for Portland right now. 

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10 minutes ago, Brennan said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_35.png

Lets work on dropping this low pressure system south about 300 miles. Hey, this Tuesday low was shown going into that same spot just yesterday.... IT COULD HAPPEN!

It's more than a week out––anything can happen. We should pay attention to what the ensembles are doing.

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Any guesses as to what this type of now frozen precipitation is? It's not vomit.

IMG_20221217_140520313.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Any guesses as to what this type of now frozen precipitation is? It's not vomit.

IMG_20221217_140520313.jpg

Jim got a little too excited

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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22 minutes ago, Brennan said:

This looks like a pattern that sets up right before a major arctic blast. Frigid air over AK. Suppressed jet. Needs some tropical forcing to lift heights around 150W. Well, at the very least things don't look boring after this week!

gfs_z500_vort_namer_45.png

Good call.  The end of the run is semi Arctic outbreakish.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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