PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Anti Marine Layer]

13 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Waiting for the arctic air 

Only 2 hours and 27 minutes to go.

[TacomaWx]

Well the radars fairly interesting down here in the south sound just to the west of here. Too warm for snow at 40 degrees but could still see some ice pellets or graupel. 

[MikeInEverett]

Down to 35 from 38 before the precip got going

[TigerWoodsLibido]

45F with some clouds. Nice, cool smoke on the porch.

A whole lot nicer than those awful days this past summer.

[Cold Snap]

Heavy Graupel shower gave everything including the roads a nice little white coating!

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Is it too early to drink whiskey if the EURO shows a convergence zone dropping 6 inches in 6 hours over my place? Asking for a friend… 

No.

[Doinko]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

2-25-19

It could happen!

[MikeInEverett]

It is very dark out right now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

45F with some clouds. Nice, cool smoke on the porch.

A whole lot nicer than those awful days this past summer.

Mild breeze up the valley but only 34 at Silver Falls. 

[LowerGarfield]

WWA added by NWS Spokane for my Lower Garfield and Asotin zone area (hence my username) until 10am tomorrow. I have a shot at maybe 2-4 inches but I wouldn't be surprised if it's on the lighter side. Nothing surprises me at this point. I expect more later in the week.

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ICON through Tuesday afternoon vs 12z

Another shift south of the same magnitude would be great

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Well the radars fairly interesting down here in the south sound just to the west of here. Too warm for snow at 40 degrees but could still see some ice pellets or graupel. 

I don’t know….south winds going to blow anything falling here up to Mossman's place.  Part of the grand design

40*

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Hopefully it comes your way soon! BTW is TC = transit center?  Kids feeling better yet? My Community Transit days make me think of that when I see your username.

They are my (kind of) my initials. Kids are doing great! Thanks for asking. Just celebrated Cora’s 1yr. Two years in a row her birthday has preceded snow. Good omen.

[KingstonWX]

North wind here now, about 5mph. Temp dropped from 39 to 36 in the last 10 minutes and it just started snowing. 

[Snownerd3000]

Winds picking up and now out of the north! Down to 39 from just a moment ago 

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

They are my (kind of) my initials. Kids are doing great! Thanks for asking. Just celebrated Cora’s 1yr. Two years in a row her birthday has preceded snow. Good omen.

So glad to hear that. My son has been awake roughly two hours since 11am yesterday so it's no fun to have sick kids. I hope your daughter enjoys the snow!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Been pretty non eventful here so far today. 31.6F. Partly cloudy. A trace of graupel. Hopefully Tuesday’s system bumps north a bit. 

There was a bit of 33F snow here in the morning that melted. Down to 32F now and outflow has kicked in with some very light snow at the moment. It'll be interesting watching temperatures crash through the middle of the day, the outflow should increase the instability with onshore flow aloft.

The south island seems to be in a good spot for the Tuesday system, the mean solution has it tracking just a little to our south, putting us in the NE quadrant. The surge of onshore flow over the embedded Arctic air should enhance precip rates and null out the typical rain shadow.

 

[WeatherGeek2022]

13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ICON through Tuesday afternoon vs 12z

so anywhere between 1-12" in the south sound as of now.

[Blizzard777]

Having some fun on my timeline with what is playing out. 

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

They are my (kind of) my initials. Kids are doing great! Thanks for asking. Just celebrated Cora’s 1yr. Two years in a row her birthday has preceded snow. Good omen.

Kind of looks like our model situation….a mess and all over

[RentonHill]

Just now, Blizzard777 said:

Kind of looks like our model situation….a mess and all over

And a poopy diaper waiting for us at the end

[Skagit Weather]

11 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Snow photos never get old. Are you in that area near the Baskin Robbins in MV? Pretty place to be right now.

No, I'm up in Skagit County (I don't think we have a Baskin Robbins up here). I'm out towards the water about halfway between Mount Vernon and Anacortes.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

45F with some clouds. Nice, cool smoke on the porch.

A whole lot nicer than those awful days this past summer.

I like menthols too.

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 39 and a bit windy. This last shower that passed dropped some ice pellets/graupel.

[Prairiedog]

3 hours ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

I have never experienced a significant ice storm. How much does it take around here to cause big issues? 

I've posted these before but you don't want to experience one.  13 days without power.  There were well over 100,000 without power for days and that was just PGE.  1/3" to 1/2" will do it.  Damage was widespread.  We had close to 1/2" here. 

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

No, I'm up in Skagit County (I don't think we have a Baskin Robbins up here). I'm out towards the water about halfway between Mount Vernon and Anacortes.

There used to be a Baskin Robbins inside a Subway on Section St in Mt Vernon. I used to go there a few times when I worked up at the Panera in Burlington. Ah so you're probably more like La Conner area. Makes sense. I used to live in Stanwood so MV was always Mt Vernon for me but some say Marysville. I don't miss driving on Pioneer in the snow though.

[TacomaWx]

Gfs still has that low going south of here for snow OLM north. 

[flya00]

Apparently, Metro Vancouver got more snow than the Fraser Valley. I wasn't expecting that.

South of Chilliwack vs Vancouver off of Highway 1

[Front Ranger]

18z GFS has similar low placement Tuesday as 12z, but overall looks like a snowier run so far for western WA.

 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS now on board with a Seattle snowstorm on Tuesday... its all coming together right in the middle of the various solutions which happens to be right over King County. 

[TonyP]

Snow totals through hour 60 on the 18z goofus — seems like the could air stalls about 50 miles south of Olympia. 

[KingstonWX]

DP down to 30 here.

[Snownerd3000]

36 and small graupal shower starting! 

[Cold Snap]

Graupel stopped so decided to take the dog out on a walk and now it’s snowing! Currently 36.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Light rain and 40. 

[Jean Ralphios Ghost]

With the snow opportunities today and this week, is 10:1 or Kutchera the best map to use?  Or will it depend on each individual snow situation?

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Jean Ralphios Ghost said:

With the snow opportunities today and this week, is 10:1 or Kutchera the best map to use?  Or will it depend on each individual snow situation?

A lot of the snow especially up north will fall with higher than 10-1 ratios most likely with low temps and dew points. So fluffier less compact snow and more accumulation. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS now on board with a Seattle snowstorm on Tuesday... its all coming together right in the middle of the various solutions which happens to be right over King County. 

Wow, even the Olympic rain shadow doesn't do too bad on that one.

[Timmy]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS now on board with a Seattle snowstorm on Tuesday... its all coming together right in the middle of the various solutions which happens to be right over King County. 

Drop it south 

[TonyP]

3 minutes ago, Jean Ralphios Ghost said:

With the snow opportunities today and this week, is 10:1 or Kutchera the best map to use?  Or will it depend on each individual snow situation?

Now I’m no meteorologist but I’ve gleaned through my time on the forum is that generally the Kutchera could be used when situations are ideal. If temps/dew points are marginal the rate maybe far lower that 10:1, conversely, if it’s incredibly cold and the precipitation is there the rate can exceed 10:1. All of this is to say, you can use the kutchera, but take it’s outputs with a grain of salt.