PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's note over for you. This thing could pull further south at the last minute. 

Still over a day out. Could be some sudden last minute changes

[The Cats Meow]

2" or 10" I don't really care.  Just hope we get a dusting.

[Meatyorologist]

Nice little flurry going on here

[SnarkyGoblin]

My hot take is that we're going to see bad ice storms all over on the western side of the 2 states.

Models seem to lag on how quickly cold air leaves, especially at the surface.  I bet they're finally catching up understanding how as strong this high pressure system is.   We will see ice in the forecast going forward starting with Oregon and SW Washington.

Seeing those pictures sucks but we can't ignore how often we're seeing freezing rain in the forecast.  And there's no reason why ZR can't outperform models.

[MikeInEverett]

Just checked the radar. Welp, looks like my house is off the northern tip of the CZ now. Ughhhh

[Doinko]

GFS is going crazy with the cold air advection. It thinks we'll stay around 18-20 all day Thursday and then get down to 13 degrees with precip.

 

 

 

Like @Perturbed Memberasid it definitely looks like a slightly deeper cold layer as well. We could stay in the freezer until Saturday or longer

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

My hot take is that we're going to see bad ice storms all over on the western side of the 2 states.

Models seem to lag on how quickly cold air leaves, especially at the surface.  I bet they're finally catching up understanding how as strong this high pressure system is.   We will see ice in the forecast going forward starting with Oregon and SW Washington.

Seeing those pictures sucks but we can't ignore how often we're seeing freezing rain in the forecast.  And there's no reason why ZR can't outperform models.

nobody got time for freezing rain, either all snow or all rain and no event plz

[Timmy]

My wife just now “ honey, get off your phone it’s gonna snow or it’s not.” 
 

 

 

I bet she hasn’t even seen the 18z

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So now I’m still in the snow on Christmas Eve? Yay! 

That map is for 10 a.m. on Friday (12/23).

[MossMan]

Looks like I am done with the precip for the day. With just a trace on the ground I am calling this a dry blast so far. I sure hope Tuesday delivers but I know how these things play out up here when shadowed. 
29.2 

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GFS is going crazy with the cold air advection. It thinks we'll stay around 18-20 all day Thursday and then get down to 13 degrees with precip.

 

 

 

Like @Perturbed Memberasid it definitely looks like a slightly deeper cold layer as well. We could stay in the freezer until Saturday or longer

Just remember that it’s still the GFS with surface temps. 13 is definitely overdoing it. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Sure, but for the west side of the cascades (vast majority of people here), kuchera is often posted because it usually shows higher amounts.  Yet almost never materializes.

I can see that over there, especially with models often getting the temp wrong.  And I'm not sure Pivotalweather.com's formula is the same one the NWS uses.

[Requiem]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's note over for you. This thing could pull further south at the last minute. 

Definitely not over-- especially since models always scour us out too early. We've seen models trend colder for Saturday already-- that would extend any threat of snow.

[Perturbed Member]

Mark just dropped the highs for Thursday and Friday by 10F+

[SnarkyGoblin]

Can someone explain to me why one looks at the control of the EPS ensemble as opposed to the euro operational?  What are the pros and cons of each?

Michael Snyder uses the control and I wonder if it's to make numbers look better to be the hype guy?  Which I appreciate.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

21 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

You know what would be great is if you could break it down by region.

"In this quadrant of the map, what is the forecast skill?"

I've wondered how exactly they calculate that.  And its for the 500's.  A model could get that right and still get temps wrong and precip wrong.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Just remember that it’s still the GFS with surface temps. 13 is definitely overdoing it. 

Yeah 13 is definitely overdone. Still, I think with all three models showing some amazing low level cold it should be watched

[Cold Snap]

Precip appears to be filling in on the south side of the convergence zone!

[TonyP]

What time will the 18z ecmwf hit the presses?

[KingstonWX]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

My wife just now “ honey, get off your phone it’s gonna snow or it’s not.” 
 

 

 

I bet she hasn’t even seen the 18z

Lmk if you need a good divorce lawyer. 

[Terreboner]

Anybody have a cam of Mukilteo Speedway?  Has to be dumping snow there right now.

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like I am done with the precip for the day. With just a trace on the ground I am calling this a dry blast so far. I sure hope Tuesday delivers but I know how these things play out up here when shadowed. 
29.2 

I think I ended up with 0.5”.  32F now and partly cloudy.  I’m just glad my ground is white for a change.  I’ll believe the pepto when I see it.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Can someone explain to me why one looks at the control of the EPS ensemble as opposed to the euro operational?  What are the pros and cons of each?

Michael Snyder uses the control and I wonder if it's to make numbers look better to be the hype guy?  Which I appreciate.

Control run seems very much exaggerated to me.    Probably for hype.    

[xfkirsten]

Light snow falling now here in Redmond!

[runninthruda206]

Starting to pickup here!

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

I have yet to see a snowflake today. Precip in all directions, but nothing here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

55 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big difference in high temps tomorrow between the GFS and ECMWF...

 

Looks like they’ve got it nailed down for here!

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Skykomish is getting walloped.

 

 

[dhoffine]

Decent snow now in Enumclaw, not sure I would term it heavy snow, but close, definitely isn't flurries

[KingstonWX]

5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Anybody have a cam of Mukilteo Speedway?  Has to be dumping snow there right now.

https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/mukilteo-wa-98275

[umadbro]

[SnarkyGoblin]

Tim is gonna get buried.

[TacomaWx]

Winds out of the north at sea tac now. 

[MikeInEverett]

Traffic cam near home. You’ve gotta be kidding me.. not even sticking to the grass or dirt?! Wow was not expecting that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Bellingham is at 21 degrees.  Last December the outflow bottomed out at 19. It is already 19 just north of Bellingham.  

[Terreboner]

Good day to be up at Stevens.

Stevens Pass Live Mountain Cam | Stevens Pass Ski Resort

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Bellingham now at 20. 

[Doinko]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Bellingham now at 20. 

I think the Euro was forecasting 23 or so at this time for Bellingham

[MikeInEverett]

Turned around at Index because the roads were starting to get really bad. Was coming down hard and accumulating well out there. Passing Monroe again and still coming down good here. Roads are still ok however.

[MossMan]

28.9