PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Phishy Wx]

was in Denver for a buddy's surprise 50th bday party this weekend, was nice to see the sun.  seems like its been freezing fog here for over a week. with that said bring, on the Negative temps.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Aren't you almost over a foot so far for the winter? Glad to see the South Sound donut hole on models be filled in

Yea I am at 11in before today for my season total.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Speaking of seasonal totals, I’m currently at 8.7". I wonder what Kayla is up to.

According to her sig, 44".

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Probably this warming trend:

 

 

That still makes no sense. The GFS and most models were much quicker to warm PDX up in earlier runs and now the surface cold is actually becoming more prolonged since the approaching warm front is trending to be weaker and more splitty in recent runs. Compared to 24 hours ago, we also have much better model agreement on the initial cold shot on Wednesday and it looks darn impressive. I'm not seeing the warming trend they are referring to. 

They also say this:

"

 Areas within the Central and Southern Willamette Valley will
likely have predominately snow with the further south you go the
better chance of only rain increases.

"

As much as I want this to be true, it is completely unsupported by models right now for Thursday-Sunday period. Whether Portland starts out as snow or not is still in question and here the NWS is talking about the central and southern Willamette valley being predominately snow. 

[thickhog]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Here's what Mark Nelsen has to say, makes a lot more sense in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/MarkNelsenKPTV/status/1604649210607194113

So what we’re rooting for is the upper levels to cool a bit, but that doesn’t seem real likely.

[Seattle]

Barely flurrying now. I have at most a light dusting. I hope this isn't it!

At least it's frigid outside.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What game are you watching there?  It's daytime.  

It’s the SNF game, but they might have been showing a highlight of one of the day games. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

 

That still makes no sense. The GFS and most models were much quicker to warm PDX up in earlier runs and now the surface cold is actually becoming more prolonged since the approaching warm front is trending to be weaker and more splitty in recent runs. Compared to 24 hours ago, we also have much better model agreement on the initial cold shot on Wednesday and it looks darn impressive. I'm not seeing the warming trend they are referring to. 

They also say this:

"

 Areas within the Central and Southern Willamette Valley will
likely have predominately snow with the further south you go the
better chance of only rain increases.

"

As much as I want this to be true, it is completely unsupported by models right now for Thursday-Sunday period. Whether Portland starts out as snow or not is still in question and here the NWS is talking about the central and southern Willamette valley being predominately snow. 

Euro agrees with it going above freezing by Christmas. I think you are wishcasting.

[Doinko]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

 

That still makes no sense. The GFS and most models were much quicker to warm PDX up in earlier runs and now the surface cold is actually becoming more prolonged since the approaching warm front is trending to be weaker and more splitty in recent runs. Compared to 24 hours ago, we also have much better model agreement on the initial cold shot on Wednesday and it looks darn impressive. I'm not seeing the warming trend they are referring to. 

They also say this:

"

 Areas within the Central and Southern Willamette Valley will
likely have predominately snow with the further south you go the
better chance of only rain increases.

"

As much as I want this to be true, it is completely unsupported by models right now for Thursday-Sunday period. Whether Portland starts out as snow or not is still in question and here the NWS is talking about the central and southern Willamette valley being predominately snow. 

I think the central/south Valley being snow might've been some wording issue, everything else they say completely contradicts that. I don't know though

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My sig needs to be updated a little we re up to about 14.5” now which is actually the most I’ve ever had this early in the season, some of you Sounders should catch me this week. Historically January 15-March 15 is our prime time snow season. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Euro agrees with it going above freezing by Christmas. I think you are wishcasting.

Models were showing us warming above freezing on Thursday/Friday earlier

[TacomaWx]

Looks like a band  is trying to set up over Tacoma across the EPSL. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Even with the slight bump north 50% of the members still show 6+ inches just south of Seattle. The models are going to continue to wobble right up to it. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Doinko said:

Models were showing us warming above freezing on Thursday/Friday earlier

Obviously it will never go above freezing again. Ignore the models, this cold snap is permanent. Welcome to Narnia!

[The Cats Meow]

does anyone have a good site for radar they can recommend? 

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

According to her sig, 44".

I’m slacking this year on my sig, I’m up to 70” on the season now. 
 

Also just saw that the 18z EPS mean low temp gets down to -41 at BZN so the operational was a warm outlier at -35!? 

[Perturbed Member]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely feels like it might be heading in that direction right now. 2004 vibes keep resonating louder and louder with this ******.

The surface level cold with this is looking pretty top shelf no? You mentioned 2004 had 850s around -2c, seems like even on the coldest models we are 0c to start with right now. Would be nice if we could magically get those mid and upper levels a bit cooler. 

Cold air damming due to the gorge, significant wet bulbing from just how crazy dry the outflow is, hopefully some of this stuff can keep the WAA aloft at bay for a bit. 

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Even with the slight bump north 50% of the members still show 6+ inches just south of Seattle. The models are going to continue to wobble right up to it. 

25 show over 6 inches 27 show less than 6 inches

[GHweatherChris]

Rather it be 45 degrees and dry then no snow with coolish air, the roads are gonna be nasty out here tomorrow and not due to exciting weather.

[bishbish777]

2 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Barely flurrying now. I have at most a light dusting. I hope this isn't it!

At least it's frigid outside.

This area is pain 

[lowlandsnow]

NAM looks good so far. We are 2 for 2 on the 00z runs tonight

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Currently 25.3F in Victoria with light snow, but still struggling to get any accumulation. Westerly flow is continuing aloft so there's a steady stream of moisture riding over the increasingly dense Arctic airmass. Seems like that's happening down around Seattle as well. This continues for awhile so there should be good chances for "surprise" accumulations over the next 24 hours.

Looks like the band that was over Vancouver today has shifted to the island and is now over Ladysmith:

[bishbish777]

00Z NAM is completely different than 18Z. Much more moist, will probably come in north.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Here's what Mark Nelsen has to say, makes a lot more sense in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/MarkNelsenKPTV/status/1604649210607194113

1) We've put the First Alert Weather Day logos on THURSDAY & FRIDAY on the 7 Day Forecast.  That means there's a good chance weather will impact your day during that time.  Especially Portland metro, Gorge, and lowlands from Longview to Eugene.

2) Models are in pretty good agreement that a classic setup for snow or freezing rain (mainly freezing rain) will be in place sometime Thursday through Friday in at least part of the metro area (or possibly all). The setup is when very cold air comes through the Columbia R. Gorge

3) Then warmer and moist Pacific air moves in overhead. Snow levels rise to around 7,000' or so by Friday in the Cascades! Most likely this will be a freezing rain event; an ice storm if we get significant amounts of it. We're still 4-5 days away, so not many details for now.

4) I'm confident that at least part of the metro area (and all of Gorge) has a big winter weather event on the way.  And of course this is a huge travel time leading to Christmas Eve on Saturday, so we'll be on top of it. I'll get a detailed blog post out Monday morning/midday

Good write up. We won’t know the finer details, of how much snow/sleet/freezing rain until probably less than 24 hours away. 

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What day did PDX finally mix out in 2004?

They edged above freezing around noon on the 8th but kept the gorge influence a while longer. Forecasts even on the 6th had then mixing out very early on the 7th at the latest.

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, bishbish777 said:

00Z NAM is completely different than 18Z. Much more moist, will probably come in north.

Still looks cold enough for Seattle though

[Hawksfan2008]

1 minute ago, bishbish777 said:

00Z NAM is completely different than 18Z. Much more moist, will probably come in north.

Should be fine. It barely even picked up on a system in its last run. 

[snow_wizard]

24 degree dp in Everett now.  Can't wait to see what happens when that dry air gets injected into the CZ.

[SnowPlz]

2 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

00Z NAM is completely different than 18Z. Much more moist, will probably come in north.

Show us the goods 

[SouthHillFrosty]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like a band  is trying to set up over Tacoma across the EPSL. 

Yup I noticed that also. I am happy with it!

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like a band  is trying to set up over Tacoma across the EPSL. 

Heaviest snow of the night here. Already surpassed an inch. Pretty amazing out! 

[Sandy rocks]

Why is it that it is supposed to take until Wednesday for the cold to get to the Portland area if it is already south of Seattle.  Also, the models never seem right about east Portland and the gorge moderating.  It takes the gorge winds a long time to change. I have seen it repeatedly.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Currently 25.3F in Victoria with light snow, but still struggling to get any accumulation. Westerly flow is continuing aloft so there's a steady stream of moisture riding over the increasingly dense Arctic airmass. Seems like that's happening down around Seattle as well. This continues for awhile so there should be good chances for "surprise" accumulations over the next 24 hours.

Looks like the band that was over Vancouver today has shifted to the island and is now over Ladysmith:

That's pretty serious looking.

[bishbish777]

Definitely looks good so far, no issues with temps. Not north like I thought, actually areas a little further south do well.

00Z

18Z

[Meatyorologist]

Hate how shadowing is becoming an increasing concern for Tuesday. Weaker system means weaker lift and more meridionally oriented precip direction, and downsloping off Olympics.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was just thinking… If we looked at daily snow fall totals of 4”+ here in the 12 winters I’ve been here, it’s probably around 40 instances at least. I’d say at most no more than 25% of those occurred before February 1st. We definitely had more 4”+ daily totals in March 2012 and February 2019 combined than all November and Decembers combined in that period. 

[MikeInEverett]

Radar looked similar to how it does now on 2/4/19. PLEASE let’s have a miracle 

[Perturbed Member]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Euro agrees with it going above freezing by Christmas. I think you are wishcasting.

 

No. Here is the EPS trend for max and min temp for Thursday and the following days. Can you show me the warming trend? I'm pretty sure if anything it is a cooling trend. 

 

You're confused about the point I'm making. The PDX AFD implies that there is a warming trend for the end of week event. This is absolutely wrong as I showed above. In fact it would be wrong even if you were talking about the weekend.

I think you are talking about the eventual warm up by this weekend. There was never any question that there would be massive WAA after this. Models have been advertising a torching 50F Christmas for a while. There is no new trend there. If anything they scaled back on that a tad. The PDX NWS is speaking nonsense no matter how you slice it.

[SnowPlz]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Hate how shadowing is becoming an increasing concern for Tuesday. Weaker system means weaker lift and more meridionally oriented precip direction, and downsloping off Olympics.

East kitsap in trouble again 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

24 degree dp in Everett now.  Can't wait to see what happens when that dry air gets injected into the CZ.

ECMWF shows that the it dries up the CZ overnight.