PNW December 2022 - Part II

[The Winter Warlock]

Covington winds switched and temps starting to drop.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Sea tac down to 32…42 in Milton but the wind shift is here. Gonna crash like a rock soon. 

I didn't realize you lived in Milton.  My sister in law lives there.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Today will be a rare flash freeze.

We had one Sunday morning. Glad to see points south getting in on that fun.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Euro going back and forth between 0" and 1" in PDX what a nailbiter. Good run this morning! DARE I SAY we should trend it to 1.5"

I think y'all are gonna get a fun event up there. It's going to overperform.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS snow forecast seems reasonable now.

Remaining very cold and windy Thursday into Friday. Forecast high
temperatures are only in the 20s across the lowlands on Thursday,
except low to mid 30s in the Eugene area and along the south WA/north
OR coast and upper 30s to lower 40s for the central OR coast. In
addition, this is also when a Pacific frontal system will bring a mix
of wintry precipitation to the area. Still expecting precipitation to
begin as mainly snow Thursday afternoon before transitioning to sleet
and/or freezing rain late in the day, which GFS/EURO soundings have
been quite consistent with as a warm layer aloft moves into the area.
The current forecast for snow and ice accumulations generally
reflects the NBM 50th percentile. Only expecting a dusting to one
inch of snow and/or sleet for most locations, except higher amounts
in/near the Gorge and over the Cascades. While higher snow amounts
cannot be completely ruled out, it appears the warm layer aloft will
move into the area fast enough to result in a fairly quick transition
from snow to sleet and/or freezing rain, which will limit total snow
amounts.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF is also underestimating how cold the Fraser outflow would be.  Running about 10 lower than what it shows.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The U District has dropped to 29 now.  Awesome CAA!

This situation in Seattle this morning has been really fun to watch.    Sort of reminds me of weaker version of November 2006 arctic blast.   I remember getting pounded with a SW wind in the middle of that event and then dumped on with snow after the low passed.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s gonna be such a close call… It’d be nice to have at least have a white table cloth set out before cArmageddon sets in Thursday evening.

Downslope gonna be hungry.

I'm leaning towards just flurries/virga with that first band, and all sleet with the 2nd band once the airmass actually saturates a bit. 

[snow_wizard]

SEA at 32 now.  Nightmare commute coming for people who went to work today.

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I didn't realize you lived in Milton.  My sister in law lives there.

I don’t live here im just working here today. I live in north tacoma. 

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, Seattle said:

We want a 12/26/21

What obs would one look at to track that? BLI-SEA gradient?

There is no BLI-SEA… best to look at OLM-BLI if you want that reference. Or even HQM-SEA. 
 

fwiw, most are interested in the BLI-YWL… which is ripping right now at about -20. This sets up for an Arctic plunge mid-week with the Fraser outflow. 

link for your reference
 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/dients.php

[TeacherLori]

Lynnwood holding at 31 degrees. Still snow globe conditions. We have a total of 5" at our house.

[Weiner Warrior]

Bellevue right now - 500'

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This situation in Seattle this morning has been really fun to watch.    Sort of reminds me of weaker version of November 2006 arctic blast.   I remember getting pounded with a SW wind in the middle of that event and then dumped on with snow after the low passed.

I was thinking the same thing. Really similar feel including the huge snowstorm up in Whatcom County and the San Juans.

[JW8]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA at 32 now.  Nightmare commute coming for people who went to work today.

Yeah...I'm not looking forward to what the hills may be like in my area- pouring rain before this switch. 

[Gummy]

What does the Euro show for the Thurs/Friday system snow wise? WRF is going with 2 inches roughly in the central sound.

[Fircrest]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why are people talking like this is over?  Really bizarre.

I just had higher expectations based on the potential but still think we'll get something interesting in the Tacoma area before this is over.  It's hard to see all the snow up north and not be disappointed in what could have been.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF is drier for Thursday night.  Yay!

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

What does the Euro show for the Thurs/Friday system snow wise? WRF is going with 2 inches roughly in the central sound.

It shows nothing lol

[leTITSnow]

29 deg and still snowing. Had 3.5” on the car hood at 0630. Currently at 7”. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, leTITSnow said:

29 deg and still snowing. Had 3.5” on the car hood at 0630. Currently at 7”. 

awesome!

[snow_wizard]

Temp drop has commenced here now.  Sitting at 37 currently.

[Tyler Mode]

1030 AM

Check out how shallow the cold air is, 28-31 at River level up to about 800', then in the 40s...

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It shows nothing lol

I can live with that amount of ice.  We might dodge a bullet.

[Blizzard777]

43* to  37* since the shift in winds with heavy precipitation 

.64 rain rate and wind out of the north at 16 mph 

 

[yellowstone]

Just measured 1.5” at my place over the course of about 1.5 hours. Think that’s it for now as it’s back down to flurries and nothing too impressive impending on radar. Temp has settled around 30.4. Would be happy with anything additional this afternoon/evening but what I said I wanted was a band of heavy snow and I definitely got that so I’m good. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA at 32 now.  Nightmare commute coming for people who went to work today.

Precip will be ending around noon... I am guessing main roads in Seattle should be OK by the evening commute.

[joelgombiner]

Total disaster on the roads. Lake City Way had a bus jack-knifed blocking two lanes, and dozens of vehicles spinning their wheels trying to go uphill. I only made it home because I had tire chains. Roads turned from bare and wet to a sheet of ice in about 30 minutes. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can live with that amount of ice.  We might dodge a bullet.

Yeah... that would be a blessing.   

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

1030 AM

Check out how shallow the cold air is, 28-31 at River level up to about 800', then in the 40s...

Talk about paper thin!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

Total disaster on the roads. Lake City Way had a bus jack-knifed blocking two lanes, and dozens of vehicles spinning their wheels trying to go uphill. I only made it home because I had tire chains. Roads turned from bare and wet to a sheet of ice in about 30 minutes. 

Wow!   That is crazy.    

[Cloud]

31 and snowing. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

43* to  37* since the shift in winds with heavy precipitation 

.64 rain rate and wind out of the north at 16 mph 

 

Currently 34 with a daily accumulation of .71in. The euro was way off rain totals

[MossMan]

Was going to post more pics but Jesse cannot stand them so I guess that’s it. 
24.1 with the sun peeking out. 

[TT-SEA]

Snowing hard here now.

[thickhog]

30 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Can anyone post the latest Euro ice maps for Friday in Portland/Gorge? We're on the verge of canceling our plans.

I haven’t seen the maps, but I think you can safely cancel your Friday plans if they’re near PDX metro. It’s gonna be nasty.

[WildrootParable]

Precip has stopped here completely for now, but there are definitely icicles forming slowly on surfaces that had been dripping only a handful of minutes ago! The cold is here! 

[TacomaWx]

Wow down to 30 at sea tac. It’s gonna get really interesting soon. Getting a good north wind here. 

[snow_wizard]

From what I can tell temps are running to 3 to 5 colder in areas where the north winds have taken over compared to ECMWF expectations.  Big big deal.

[Doinko]

Euro looks interesting around hr 168. Seems windy