PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Too late to save January though.  

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Too late to save January though.  

When is it not though. February looks to turn bitterly cold again.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

When is it not though. February looks to turn bitterly cold again.

February has potential to be legitimate, no doubt.

If the SSW comes to fruition I suspect there will be a bonafide MJO wave in response, as well.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Too late to save January though.  

But next January!!!

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

But next January!!!

A January during an El Nino! It will be 50s everyday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

44F and mostly cloudy. Looks like things are gonna be fairly normal-ish temp wise for a while so that's nice.

[Cold Snap]

33 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

A January during an El Nino! It will be 50s everyday.

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if SEA scored a 70 degree day in a super nino January.

[Gradient Keeper]

Impressive.

[RentonHill]

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Day 8-16. I believe this was the coldest run thus far for the Gorge and eastern Washington. Pretty decent improvements. 12z ECMWF in 3 hours 45 minutes

[ShawniganLake]

5 hours ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

A January during an El Nino! It will be 50s everyday.

The first half of next January will be cold.  Bank on it. 

[MossMan]

Dark wet deck. 42. 

.14” so far. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

46 in Scio 

[Phishy Wx]

it's still coming

 

patience Daniel son

[Phishy Wx]

had some mixed precip spitting out there, 36

[SouthHillFrosty]

Slight ensembles improvement on the 6z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44 and rain in Lebanon. 

[Phil]

Operational GFS continues to diverge from the GEFS/EPS in the long range with the more zonal pattern. Suspect it’s wrong but we’ll see.

There is often a degradation of model skill ahead of/during SSW events as dynamic trop/strat coupling is difficult to simulate, and many of the mechanisms are still poorly understood.

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like another sneaky 50F day up at BLI. If it's not just from a rounding error then that would make 13 out of 18 days above 50F so far this year.

[SouthHillFrosty]

At least we are not Atlanta warm

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Delightfully rainy this morning. Looks like Phil gets a January 60-burger today!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

At least we are not Atlanta warm

 

Wait until the next El Niño.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wait until the next El Niño.

Yea. Remember the 2014-15 El Niño?  Oh wait. This January is running almost 3F warmer than January 2015 at YXX

[Skagit Weather]

16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

At least we are not Atlanta warm

 

More freezes than we've had here...

[MossMan]

Quite the spread on the fuzz this morning. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

44 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Slight ensembles improvement on the 6z

Crescent City, CA is in the blue!

[NWbyNW]

I had no idea we were considered "Abnormally dry."  Drought monitor is showing much more color for the region then I expected including extreme drought for much of eastern Oregon.   I know it hasn't been as wet, but I really didn't expect this.

 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I had no idea we were considered "Abnormally dry."  Drought monitor is showing much more color for the region then I expected including extreme drought for much of eastern Oregon.   I know it hasn't been as wet, but I really didn't expect this.

 

Spokane airport is right at normal for YTD precip (only 2.5 weeks in) according to local media.  could easily fall back into drought with any extended dry period I suppose.  curious to see what the precip amounts are for the water year though

[NWbyNW]

The front coming in and hitting the region looks pretty neat.  The front brought with it some pretty decent gusts too.  Southern Oregon's coastline saw them range from 20-50mph. Conditions weren't as strong up north but a 21 was caught at Westport, 18 at Port Angeles, and a 26 on Whidbey Island directly facing the open sea.  Even some decent gusts in the Sound with Des Moines, Seattle's Boeing Field, and Mukilteo all saw 22-23mph gusts. 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

The front coming in and hitting the region looks pretty neat.  The front brought with it some pretty decent gusts too.  Southern Oregon's coastline saw them range from 20-50mph. Conditions were's as strong up north but a 21 was caught at Westport, 18 at Port Angeles, and a 26 on Whidbey Island directly facing the open sea.  Even some decent gusts in the Sound with Des Moines, Seattle's Boeing Field, and Mukilteo all see 22-23mph gusts. 

 

Looks like some pretty hefty post-frontal showers.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Delightfully rainy this morning. Looks like Phil gets a January 60-burger today!

DCA hit 61 already.

Been hovering at 54/55 here thanks to a mountain wave cloud overhead, but that usually doesn’t last all day.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

The front coming in and hitting the region looks pretty neat.  The front brought with it some pretty decent gusts too.  Southern Oregon's coastline saw them range from 20-50mph. Conditions weren't as strong up north but a 21 was caught at Westport, 18 at Port Angeles, and a 26 on Whidbey Island directly facing the open sea.  Even some decent gusts in the Sound with Des Moines, Seattle's Boeing Field, and Mukilteo all saw 22-23mph gusts. 

 

39mph at Victoria Gonzales overnight. 57mph at Saturna in the southern Gulf islands. 

[NWbyNW]

Looking at the Westport camera, looks like the waves have gone over the breakers again flooding one road and a bit of the waterfront.  Crews are actually blocking the road this time.  Some pretty big waves still bashing the coast.

[Phil]

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

The front coming in and hitting the region looks pretty neat.  The front brought with it some pretty decent gusts too.  Southern Oregon's coastline saw them range from 20-50mph. Conditions were's as strong up north but a 21 was caught at Westport, 18 at Port Angeles, and a 26 on Whidbey Island directly facing the open sea.  Even some decent gusts in the Sound with Des Moines, Seattle's Boeing Field, and Mukilteo all see 22-23mph gusts. 

 

The gap in radar coverage between NW Oregon and SW Oregon is interesting.

#tiger’slament

[Slushy Inch]

New GEFS is worse. But I don't really care sense EPS will be coming out.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The gap in radar coverage between NW Oregon and SW Oregon is interesting.

#tiger’slament

It took a fair bit of lobbying Congress just to get the Langley Hill radar built, and Southern Oregon doesn’t have the presence in the House that the Seattle and Portland metro areas collectively do.

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Bye bye Tonga cooling  

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It took a fair bit of lobbying Congress just to get the Langley Hill radar built, and Southern Oregon doesn’t have the presence in the House that the Seattle and Portland metro areas collectively do.

Which is just sad, the importance of a coastal radar is obvious.

[Skagit Weather]

47 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I had no idea we were considered "Abnormally dry."  Drought monitor is showing much more color for the region then I expected including extreme drought for much of eastern Oregon.   I know it hasn't been as wet, but I really didn't expect this.

 

It's been pretty dry up here for the last 60 days and the Cascades are definitely starting to struggle.