PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. 

I'm expecting to see some as well. I normally get snow with forecasted 1000ft snow levels and I'm thinking there's going to be a couple cold troughs that deliver. 

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is less favorable for the northern areas with the mid-week system.    

Poor Ludicrous 

[ShawniganLake]

Just checking the Fraser Canyon for any low level cold. Lytton has had a strong North wind for 5 hours but temp is still 37F. Dew points are starting to drop though. 

[LowerGarfield]

Sitting at 32F. Trying to drink my coffee before my son asks us to go to the park

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm expecting to see some as well. I normally get snow with forecasted 1000ft snow levels and I'm thinking there's going to be a couple cold troughs that deliver. 

Your area might do better than mine depending on how the upcoming pattern shakes out.   Seeing signs of troughs going through CA which is definitely better for your area.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Chilly gfs run, I haven't looked past 180 hrs in a minute but there's a couple chances for some low snow levels.

[umadbro]

One thing we have in our favor for later this evening is temps are running below forecast right now and the low clouds and fog don’t seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere. That said, I ain’t holding my breath.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Your area might do better than mine depending on how the upcoming pattern shakes out.   Seeing signs of troughs going through CA which is definitely better for your area.  

A trough with the 528 line south of me usually is cold enough over here for borderline snow.  North wind suddenly picked up here as we speak, 20 -25mph.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A trough with the 528 line south of me usually is cold enough over here for borderline snow.  North wind suddenly picked up here as we speak, 20 -25mph.

Dry air is moving in... Bellingham is finally clearing out now.

[MossMan]

It’s coming!! Blue skies are coming!! 

[LowerGarfield]

I'm not complaining at all, but I'm wondering if I should bring my rain gauge back out if I'm not going to have snow. I don't like using it in the winter due to freezes and afraid of warping. That said looks like the next few days will be subfreezing.

 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming!! Blue skies are coming!! 

Here is Bellingham looking south towards your area. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is Bellingham looking south towards your area. 

This was my house when I left an hour ago…We got socked in but that should be changing rapidly! 

[TT-SEA]

12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  

Yeah I’ve seen that showing up in some of the operational runs. It’s just a fairly cool trough, but maybe something that could cause some low snow levels in specific cases like we saw last week. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

Plenty of time for that cutoff low to not be there.

Not really the issue... its a progressive patten either way.  

[ShawniganLake]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dry air is moving in... Bellingham is finally clearing out now.

Yep. Agassiz is 45F but the dp is down to 24F. 

[umadbro]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  

So in reality, it doesn’t look decent at all.

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This was my house when I left an hour ago…We got socked in but that should be changing rapidly! 

Merry Christmas!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

So in reality, it doesn’t look decent at all.

Maybe it could be... but that one frame looks better than it does if you run the loop or look at 850mb temps.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Terreboner2 said:

Hey Tim.  What's your thoughts for tomorrow's games?  I'm hoping it's Eagles/Bengals personally.

I agree with your predictions.  

[umadbro]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Hey Tim.  What's your thoughts for tomorrow's games?  I'm hoping it's Eagles/Bengals personally.

SF defense is just so good. Hurts is going to have to run a lot for them to win IMO. But I still think the Eagles come out on top.

[joelgombiner]

Current location of the Arctic front. 

 

[TacomaWx]

43 here after a low of 40. Shouldn’t be more than very slightly interesting the next couple days…but that’s about it. Some sub 40 highs atleast. No snow and not really all that cold. Hopefully mid February-early March can actually deliver something but right now I’m not thinking so. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really hoping we avoid the chiefs or eagles in the big game. 

[TacomaWx]

(Sorry rob) but the only team I hope loses on Sunday is the chiefs. I’m really rooting for the bengals to win it all. I wouldn’t mind seeing SF or Philly win though. Kansas City is basically the new patriots dynasty. I liked them a lot when they won the 2019 season but they’re just always good and I like to see diffrent teams win. They already won their Super Bowl a couple years ago. Let someone else win one! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wife insisted we drive by Arrowhead on Wednesday. 

[LowerGarfield]

Down to 31. Winds are picking up here but the Columbia Basin to my west looks to get the highest wind speeds today. Son decided he'd rather play Plants vs Zombies. We're going to the Palouse tomorrow so it will be interesting to see PUW's high tomorrow.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Terreboner2 said:

Are we all in agreement that Winter 2023/24 is going to be a suckfest of epic proportions?

Either 23/24 or 24/25 will be.

[joelgombiner]

10 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Are we all in agreement that Winter 2023/24 is going to be a suckfest of epic proportions?

Seems inevitable that we get a big El Nino and the (globally) warmest year in recorded history soon. 

[joelgombiner]

Just now, Terreboner2 said:

I like it when there are no expectations.  Probably means a huge, regionwide event will happen.

Anything's possible. 

[umadbro]

16 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

I like it when there are no expectations.  Probably means a huge, regionwide event will happen.

With that logic we’d have region wide events every winter nearly all winter long.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Seems like the wind showed up early.  Wind advisory not supposed to start until 6, but its already cranking at my house and KBLI has already seen a 40 mph gust.  NWS has "gusts as high as 28mph" for this afternoon, and "gusts has high as 29 mph" for tonight.

YWL-BLI is only at -11.2

[Phishy Wx]

Down to 27. WC 18

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Either 23/24 or 24/25 will be.

Probably so.  You can't write off next winter until we see if the Nina actually gives out or not.  Even if it does we might just go neutral.

[snow_wizard]

The eastern third of WA has gotten pretty cold.  This thing does have some teeth.

[WeatherGeek2022]

Winter still remains cancelled I see.

[Blizzard777]

1:28 pm 1/28/2023

Observation: Day 16 back in the PNW a green substance is growing on the exterior of my body.  I’m not sure but it could be some sort of moss.  Heading up north now to see a specialist.  Randy (aka MossMan)  should be able to identify how much time I have left.  
 
Gloomy and 43* 

[Deweydog]

Hood River now under the gun!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

47F and cloudy. Been enjoying college basketball.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z GFS showing some snowfall for Kelso, Corvallis and Eugene with the Arctic front.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice day at the waterfront 

[T-Town]

Looks like winter in the Olympics. I can see the clearing coming my way. 45 here with the northerly breeze picking up. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, joelgombiner said:

Seems inevitable that we get a big El Nino and the (globally) warmest year in recorded history soon. 

Not region centric, but I’m looking forward to the +ENSO swing. +ENSO following heavy multiyear niñas tend to deliver excellent winters out here **when the IPWP is extending** (which is indirectly paced by solar forcing on a state dependent lag).

1957/58 following 1954/55-56/57.

1976/77/78 following 1973/74-75/76

2002/03 following 1998/99-01/02

2014/15-15/16 following 2010/11-13/14

+ENSO winters outside this portion of the IPWP cycle are much less predictable here. There are great ones like 2009/10 and 1986/87, but also epic fails like 1991/92, 2019/20, 1997/98, etc.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18Z Goofus says “Sorry, @MossMan.”

[NWbyNW]

We all know how Waldo likes to hide, but in today's edition, we try to find Mount Baker?  Can you see it?  

Have a superb Saturday all!  Very beautiful partly cloudy day, frigid cool air coming from the north.  Very cold with wind chill, but the actual temp is pretty warm at 44F.  Lot's of

 

[Blizzard777]

21 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like winter in the Olympics. I can see the clearing coming my way. 45 here with the northerly breeze picking up. 

Almost went to hike, Hurricane Ridge today probably would’ve been and adventure !!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Getting breezy. Temp 43.5˚F, DP 33.3˚F.

Hope: Temp 41.9˚F, DP 12.0˚F.

Lytton: Temp 34.3˚F, DP 9.5˚F.

[Deweydog]

18z will have Andrew talking silverware again!

Edited January 28 by Deweydog

[Deweydog]

Nein degree drop at HR in an hour.