February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON running

[Perturbed Member]

No doubt the mid week thing has potential.  Now that models have trended so cold with that the stakes are high!

King Euro again leading the way.

[HighlandExperience]

Icon looking better so far

[snow_wizard]

You were spot on when you said late February Arctic Blast are rarely dry! Looks like there's going to be numerous chances of snow this coming week for everybody!

 

Indeed.  I think it's at least 80% of late season cold events that have decent snowfall.  Maybe higher.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So we are tossing the NAM for tomorrow, but going with it for Tuesday night?

[HighlandExperience]

Icon looks good for King County. Sure hope those Germans know something. Like Jaya said, it’s been consistent

[Geos]

Through 33 hours.

Would love to see 2 or 3 inches.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON running a bit warmer

[snow_wizard]

The ICON shows the 522 thickness dropping through around midnight.  After that it's snow!

[FroYoBro]

Through 33 hours.

Would love to see 2 or 3 inches.

This shows me getting like 5 inches. The Icon is going to be banished after this.

[TT-SEA]

I seriously wonder if the models will ever be good enough to accurately depict situations like this.  I think the Olympics make it nearly impossible.  A trajectory difference of just a couple of degrees can make the difference between no snow and several inches.  Insanely difficult here.

 

When you head westbound into Bellevue on I-90 and come down the hill towards 405... the Olympics look like a small bump on the horizon.   It always amazes me how much they profoundly affect the weather in Seattle and Bellevue.    I understand why the mountains play a role in North Bend... but you would never imagine mountains that appear so far off in the distance would block so much precipitation and be directly responsible for so many c-zones.   

[Winterdog]

Icon looks good for King County. Sure hope those Germans know something. Like Jaya said, it’s been consistent

It shows snow for Seattle north from around 2 am to 1 pm but also shows temps in the mid to upper 30's during the same time frame.  Not exactly a flash freeze.

[snow_wizard]

ICON running a bit warmer

 

I would say a hair actually.

[snow_wizard]

This shows me getting like 5 inches. The Icon is going to be banished after this.

 

I guess the model is VERY high resolution, but I'm not sure if the algorithms are as good as the other models.  We shall see I guess.

[snow_wizard]

It shows snow for Seattle north from around 2 am to 1 pm but also shows temps in the mid to upper 30's during the same time frame.  Not exactly a flash freeze.

 

Yeah...it's probably not going to be quite the fast hitting blast I had expected earlier.  On the other hand I think temps will be around freezing when snow is falling.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 39

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Some convection on the radar now.

[snow_wizard]

Icon looks good for King County. Sure hope those Germans know something. Like Jaya said, it’s been consistent

 

Never underestimate the Germans.  Very talented and cutting edge people usually.  I'm just wondering how they can afford a computer that can do a higher res model than the GFS.

[Geos]

Down to 41/37 here. Would be nice to get some more clearing in order to lose some of this daytime heating. 

[snow_wizard]

The ICON is just as cold on Monday night as the previous run.  That's going to be the one to watch for really cold temps.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 41/37 here. Would be nice to get some more clearing in order to lose some of this daytime heating. 

 

It's going to be all CAA tonight.

[Jbolin]

Still gusting close to 30mph out the SSW here atop West Seattle 

[Geos]

It's going to be all CAA tonight.

 

Would be nice to lose the "heat" asap. So we can start the start snow sooner. Waiting for the first sign of the Fraser outflow.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The radar is filling in across on the east side of the Strait of Georgia, it won't be long before it switches to snow in the Nanaimo - Parksville area.

[Blizzard777]

Still gusting close to 30mph out the SSW here atop West Seattle

 

Just put the dog out and noticed the wind has increased a bit here as well

[Jbolin]

850's are -4C and 925's are 1C

[snow_wizard]

Just put the dog out and noticed the wind has increased a bit here as well

 

Probably from the second low dropping down.  Once that gets south Bellingham and outflow winds will kick in.  I'm going to watching the Fraser outflow temps closely tonight.

[Prairiedog]

44f.  Not sure its gonna make it to snow temps by the am. 

[Geos]

So about 4z tonight is when the winds will start roaring out of the Fraser River Valley.

 

https://atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/rt/load.cgi?latest+YYYYMMDDHH/images_d3/ww_slp.16.0000.gif

[Phil]

It shows snow for Seattle north from around 2 am to 1 pm but also shows temps in the mid to upper 30's during the same time frame. Not exactly a flash freeze.

How much precip falls during that interval? It will have to snow pretty hard to stick if surface temperatures are in the mid/upper 30’s, I presume.

[Front Ranger]

GFS looks a bit better for Portland.

[Jesse]

44f. Not sure its gonna make it to snow temps by the am.

Pretty decent cold advection tonight. 34-35 by morning seems doable for you. You’ve got some elevation right?

[luminen]

8F in the Prince George area, 11F in Williams Lake, 24F in Kamloops, and 34F in Hope. The western coast range is pretty cold with Gold Bridge down to 17F.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dry slot moved north on 00z. Shows snow in seattle.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Another test for the models on an approaching Arctic front tonight. The 0z GFS is amazing for East Vancouver Island, awful for Southern Vancouver Island, awful for the Southern Puget Sound, and decent for the northern Puget Sound/Southern WA/Northern OR.

 

Victoria 0z model prediction: 0z GFS has - 0", 0z NAM - 2", 0z ICON - TR, 0z GEM maybe 1-2". I'd be amazed if we ended up getting so screwed for snow with a nice looking upper level pattern and 850mb dropping to -13~-14C, but there is a fair amount of model support for it.

[Winterdog]

Yeah...it's probably not going to be quite the fast hitting blast I had expected earlier.  On the other hand I think temps will be around freezing when snow is falling.

I hope you are right.  My comment was really directed at the ICON model showing temperatures that would not support much accumulating snow at the light to moderate rates depicted.  I guess on a closer look it is showing around an inch for most of Snohomish county through Sunday which would be realistic given the temperatures shown I suppose.

[Front Ranger]

ICON is great for Willamette Valley on Thursday.

[Esquimalt]

Another test for the models on an approaching Arctic front tonight. The 0z GFS is amazing for East Vancouver Island, awful for Southern Vancouver Island, awful for the Southern Puget Sound, and decent for the northern Puget Sound/Southern WA/Northern OR.

 

Victoria 0z model prediction: 0z GFS has - 0", 0z NAM - 2", 0z ICON - TR. I'd be amazed if we ended up getting so screwed for snow with a nice looking upper level pattern and 850mb dropping to -13~-14C, but there is a fair amount of model support for it.

It's a shame, and I hope they're all wrong.  I think the outflow is just going to be too strong and is going to dry the precipitation up.  The western communities have potential to get more than the eastern portions imo, but still, it's a disappointment.   D**n Victoria always misses out.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0Z GEM disagrees with the GFS, looks better here and in the South Puget Sound. Not as good for the North Puget Sound or Southern WA/OR.

[seattleweatherguy]

The ICON shows the 522 thickness dropping through around midnight. After that it's snow!

Midnight tonight?