June 2018 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Wow, Talk about humid at 10PM there are many locations in Missouri, part of Illinois and Western Kentucky with DP in the upper 70’s with 79 being rather common, and several locations have a DP of 81 such as Poplar Bluff, MO Clinton, MO and Sparta, IL. That is some humid air to our sw
 

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, Talk about humid at 10PM there are many locations in Missouri, part of Illinois and Western Kentucky with DP in the upper 70’s with 79 being rather common, and several locations have a DP of 81 such as Poplar Bluff, MO Clinton, MO and Sparta, IL. That is some humid air to our sw

 

That's why I have absolutely no urge to live in S IL/E MO/KY. They get those dew points most Summers and there's zero breeze, making it just a complete sauna. Having grown up in Houston where it's notoriously disgusting in the Summer, while mid-70s DPs are daily, there's usually a breeze to at least make it suck less. Humid areas further from the coast don't have that.

[Tom]

Well, folks, this coming heat/humidity is now looking like it will be the worst of the season (only for a day or two) for those near the GL's, esp in MI who have escaped the heat for most of the summer.  Climo speaking, this is prime time for heat to build and welcomed for those who enjoy it.  Personally, I don't mind it as long as its not a relentless, endless heat wave.  Temps top out in the mid 90's here in Chi for 2 days, then meander in the upper 80's to near 90F throughout the holiday week.  Who's ready for the 4th of July???

 

Tired of the heat???  Models are starting to come into agreement that by the 10th/11th the ridge retrogrades west and blossoms across western North America.  The long standing idea of a transition towards a more seasonal/cooler than normal mid/late July may be in the cards.  Today's latest JMA weeklies are still singing that tune.  By Week 2, the ridge is shown to blossom near the PAC NW and a downstream seasonal look transpires as well as an uptick in precip chances.

 

 

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201806.D2712_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201806.D2712_gl0.png

 

 

 

 

Weeks 3 & 4, a strong signal for a large trough-like pattern evolves, centering around the GL's and could be the beginning of a cooler than normal pattern.  I'm just not quite sure when this cooler pattern locks.  Is it the last week of July or the 3rd week....????  That is the question which I will ponder on over the next week.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201806.D2712_gl0.png

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201806.D2712_gl2.png

[james1976]

Yeah its gonna be a brutal couple days, mainly Friday around here. HI may hit 110. Excessive Heat Warnings starting to pop up.

[Tom]

Yeah its gonna be a brutal couple days, mainly Friday around here. HI may hit 110. Excessive Heat Warnings starting to pop up.

Thankfully, it only looks to hit for a day or two, depending on where your located.  Your area looks good for some severe wx Sat night as the nocturnal jet turns into high gear.  Lot's of fuel in the atmosphere.

[BrianJK]

Hows this for a hot and steamy summer forecast - bring it!
 

EDIT: how can i rotate the pic before posting?

[Tom]

Hows this for a hot and steamy summer forecast - bring it!

 

EDIT: how can i rotate the pic before posting?

You have to save it the way you want it to show prior to posting.

[james1976]

Thankfully, it only looks to hit for a day or two, depending on where your located. Your area looks good for some severe wx Sat night as the nocturnal jet turns into high gear. Lot's of fuel in the atmosphere.

Yeah DMX is already talking about it. Heavy rain potential as well.

[CentralNebWeather]

Hopefully we are through the worst of it tomorrow. One local observation showed me at an 80 dew at 7:30 last night and when I went to bed it was still 86 degrees with a dew of 79 at 10:30 pm. We now sit at 80 with dew of 71 but a south breeze is bringing a little relief.

[OKwx2k4]

Well, folks, this coming heat/humidity is now looking like it will be the worst of the season (only for a day or two) for those near the GL's, esp in MI who have escaped the heat for most of the summer. Climo speaking, this is prime time for heat to build and welcomed for those who enjoy it. Personally, I don't mind it as long as its not a relentless, endless heat wave. Temps top out in the mid 90's here in Chi for 2 days, then meander in the upper 80's to near 90F throughout the holiday week. Who's ready for the 4th of July???

 

Tired of the heat??? Models are starting to come into agreement that by the 10th/11th the ridge retrogrades west and blossoms across western North America. The long standing idea of a transition towards a more seasonal/cooler than normal mid/late July may be in the cards. Today's latest JMA weeklies are still singing that tune. By Week 2, the ridge is shown to blossom near the PAC NW and a downstream seasonal look transpires as well as an uptick in precip chances.

 

 

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201806.D2712_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201806.D2712_gl0.png

 

 

 

 

Weeks 3 & 4, a strong signal for a large trough-like pattern evolves, centering around the GL's and could be the beginning of a cooler than normal pattern. I'm just not quite sure when this cooler pattern locks. Is it the last week of July or the 3rd week....???? That is the question which I will ponder on over the next week.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201806.D2712_gl0.png

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201806.D2712_gl2.png

Looks like halfway there in week 2 and fully ridge west, trough east by week 3, no?

[Tom]

Looks like halfway there in week 2 and fully ridge west, trough east by week 3, no?

Hard to say, because the Week 3 & 4 maps are a blend so its hard to distinguish if its "seeing" it in week 3 or 4.  Either way, this is the 2nd run in a row its agreeing to this transition.  Hopefully, by the end of the holiday week, we will see all the longer range models agreeing onto the idea that the 2nd half of July won't "fry".  I'm sure you'll be eager to get out of the heat/humidity!

[CentralNebWeather]

US drought monitor out today for Nebraska. Things are looking good for most of the state for now.

[Iowawx]

Most recent run of HRRR brings a strong thunderstorm complex to eastern Iowa later this afternoon. Based on radar, I'm not sure if this will happen but would be very cool to see a daytime strong thunderstorm. 

 

I've had a lot of rain for the month of June, but most of it has just been heavy rain and not much in the way of severe weather. 

 

 

[james1976]

Most recent run of HRRR brings a strong thunderstorm complex to eastern Iowa later this afternoon. Based on radar, I'm not sure if this will happen but would be very cool to see a daytime strong thunderstorm.

 

I've had a lot of rain for the month of June, but most of it has just been heavy rain and not much in the way of severe weather.

Yeah looks like radar is weakening

[Hawkeye]

I wouldn't put any money on that.  The storms are only hitting southern Iowa into northeast Missouri.

 

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the storms until now.  Apparently, they've been producing severe wind since well back in Nebraska.

[Bryan1117]

I wouldn't put any money on that. The storms are only hitting southern Iowa into northeast Missouri.

 

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the storms until now. Apparently, they've been producing severe wind since well back in Nebraska.

They have been rolling through mostly rural areas this morning. I drove down to Sioux City from Sioux Falls this morning, and everything went south of me... right between Sioux City and Omaha. Have heard reports of wind damage from north central Nebraska all the way down across western Iowa.

[james1976]

Actually looks like its holding together pretty well. N IA gettin some rain too.

[OKwx2k4]

Hard to say, because the Week 3 & 4 maps are a blend so its hard to distinguish if its "seeing" it in week 3 or 4. Either way, this is the 2nd run in a row its agreeing to this transition. Hopefully, by the end of the holiday week, we will see all the longer range models agreeing onto the idea that the 2nd half of July won't "fry". I'm sure you'll be eager to get out of the heat/humidity!

Lol. Yes I am. Hence my absence mostly recently. I hate summer. I don't have much nice to say about it so I just don't have much to say at all.

 

I mostly want that ridge already out there before fall to help the fall/winter pattern but getting a touch of cool in late July and through parts of August would be a blessing.

[Minny_Weather]

I would have complained about those storms missing Lincoln again but I'm in Tampa, where other storms are missing me.

[james1976]

DMX put me in Excessive Heat Warning for Friday. Heat Index of 110-115. Geez

[CentralNebWeather]

My brother just texted me from Kansas City ( he actually works in downtown KC) and lives in the western suburb of Shawnee KS, and said the heat index as of 4 PM was 113-115 degrees.  If you have ever spent time in KC in the summer, this is not unheard of.  It is a brutal heat.  I can remember as a kid and young adult going to KC often for Royals games and going to Worlds of Fun amusement park and just being exhausted from this type of humidity.

[CentralNebWeather]

DMX put me in Excessive Heat Warning for Friday. Heat Index of 110-115. Geez

Sorry, that is brutal. Yuck.

[Hawkeye]

I got all the mowing, trimming, and driveway/sidewalk/patio blowing done today(mine and neighbor's).  My lawn wasn't scheduled to be mowed until tomorrow, but I took advantage of the thick MCS clouds to get it done.  I sure didn't want to do any outside work tomorrow.

[gabel23]

I got to see an impressive gust front roll through this morning about 830 from the storms in central Nebraska. They were warned with 80 mile an hour winds and 2” hail. It stayed cloudy for about half the day giving us a brief break from the heat but once the clouds broke it turned hot! When the gust front rolled through it turned crazy dark and seen a tremendous amount of cloud to ground lightning. Luckily no rain, hail, or wind damage......I can’t afford to see another heavy rain event as this last one left water in my basement. I seen a tweet today that the storms this morning rose to 61,000 feet!!

[OKwx2k4]

Just stay safe in the heat everyone. These dewpoints will kill ya faster than the temperature will. Mid-90s with a 75dp is stupid.

[Tom]

Wow, what a long-lived derecho yesterday.  I was watching that thing roll through IA and then skirt STL yesterday afternoon.  Quite a storm complex.  It traveled all the way from N/C NE up and over the heat dome into parts of TN/KY while leaving its mark of storm reports.  I haven't seen one of these in a few years so it was fascinating watching it on radar yesterday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On a side note, today marks the first day where the sun will set 1-minute earlier (8:29pm) from its peak (8:30pm) yesterday.  Before you know it, it will be Autumn and the seasons will be changing.  Enjoy your summer! 

[westMJim]

I got my walk in early today. At this time here in Grand Rapids it is not all that bad out. The temperature when I left for my walk was a cool 64° and the current temperature at my house is 69 the last report at the airport 66 with a DP of 64. One thing that kind of surprised me is that I was the only one out running/walking even in the park. Only a few others walking their dogs. That is odd because it was nice and cool even if a little humid.

[westMJim]

BTW I work for the local minor league baseball club. While it was warm last night I expect the rest of this home stand to be very hot. This might be the hottest days I have worked at the park since 2012 when we played several games in temperatures of over 100 and one day at 104. 

[james1976]

Currently 85 temp, 75 dew, 94 HI

[NEJeremy]

Next week looks BRUTAL again for several days after a brief "cool down" for a couple of days coming up. GFS is forecasting dews in the 80s and heat indexes of 110+. Just in time for our family's camping trip

[james1976]

90f

75dew

100HI

[bud2380]

105 heat index in Cedar Rapids with a 78 dew point. 

[westMJim]

Off to work I go. It is going to be 3 hot days at the ball park. The latest temperature at GRR is 90 with a DP of 72 good for a reported Heat index to 98. Off to our SW it is even worse in Illinois the DP’s are in the upper 70’s with a couple of 81’s reported the same in Iowa. Missouri has DP’s in the mid to upper 70’s and in Wisconsin the range is in the low to upper 70’s and here in Michigan the range from 73 at Benton Harbor to 64 at Copper Harbor. There are even a few in the low 70’s in the UP so we are in for a humid night.

here is a site for DP's and other information.

 

http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/michigan/dew-points/

[St Paul Storm]

Per MPX the heat index at 2pm in downtown St Paul was 108. It’s incredibly windy today though, so it honestly doesn’t feel quite that bad. I’ve been in Mobile, AL for the last week so this feels great.

[Hawkeye]

The dewpoint in CR is up to 79.  However, like the last heat wave, the NWS has overforecasted the temperature.  Late yesterday, DVN had 97 in CR today, and DMX had 97 in Waterloo and 98 or 99 in Des Moines.  Currently, the temps across Iowa are largely stuck in the low 90s.

[bud2380]

They did over do forecast highs, but they must have underdone dew points, because heat index is on target with the forecast of 105-110.  Currently 108 HI at CR and IC.  110 at Monticello if that 81 degree dewpoint reading is to be believed.  

[CentralNebWeather]

We had a low 60’s dew all day with a south wind, but in the last hour the wind had decreased and the dew has shot up to 75. Very muggy out there this evening.

[jaster220]

That's why I have absolutely no urge to live in S IL/E MO/KY. They get those dew points most Summers and there's zero breeze, making it just a complete sauna. Having grown up in Houston where it's notoriously disgusting in the Summer, while mid-70s DPs are daily, there's usually a breeze to at least make it suck less. Humid areas further from the coast don't have that.

Just think how much more fun it must've been before a/c or refrigeration or ice cubes even!?!

[jaster220]

HI of 88F at 11 pm in Marshall is not normal. Still not sure how I survived the summer of '88 living in a tin can with no a/c. My old car had no a/c and I worked on the 4th floor of an old factory with no a/c. Worst day iirc was 102 actual with a 113F HI

[westMJim]

HI of 88F at 11 pm in Marshall is not normal. Still not sure how I survived the summer of '88 living in a tin can with no a/c. My old car had no a/c and I worked on the 4th floor of an old factory with no a/c. Worst day iirc was 102 actual with a 113F HI

The 1 am reading at GRR was 82° with a DP of 76 that is good for a reported HI of 89° The wind is out of the SW at 10 MPH. The record warmest minimum for today June 30 at Grand Rapids is 76 set back in 1931. That record is very much in play,