Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
12z GFS seems to be showing a less intense secondary warm spell, but it’s also backed off from the troughy pattern in the long range being shown on some runs yesterday. Seems the models are struggling with how to handle that period.
Snow definitely would’ve added to the fun, but overall the blast this January was pretty top tier in every other aspect. Who knows when we will actually see ice formations like this down on the Puget sound again. Might be decades before it happens again.
The conversations this morning in my PT session (can't help overhearing with 10 different sessions going at the same time in a big open room) would have made Jesse's head explode. I am not sure he could have made it through without bursting out and telling everyone they are wrong. Its a burden being superior to all other humans.
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