Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
So for this Friday, based on models, the 850 temps appear to be around a +16. This is the lowest I'd like to see for a 90F+ in Portland (+15 can be acceptable if there is ample downslope winds. Temperature potential is 89 given a 1020 mb pressure (what said models are forecasting). However, downslope winds are expected which may make the true temperature potential higher. I'm still going to stick with 89 for now, though the true potential is at 92-94 (depending on wind speed) if 850s don't change.
May 28th, 1983 stayed below temperature potential (107F), and June 2021 at Salem already was cooling down at the highest 850s at sounding time, though the day before was a +0.2F above potential. If I had to guess, the 30.4C 850s weren't the highest at sounding time compared to earlier that day.
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