PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[WeatherGeek2022]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I need to live in a better climate.

buffalo, NY ;D plenty of phat lake effect snow to suppress the love for snow.

[MikeInEverett]

44 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

If the WRF verifies, this will be a C+ for me at best. One good shot of snow in November and nothing since.

Yeah this will downgrade to C territory for me if this next event ends up like last night. I have higher hopes though because temps will be a bit colder and it definitely has more boom potential than bust.

[RCola]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Tuesday morning will bust for downtown Seattle. Models are all less encouraging today, and it fits with the theme of the winter. Rain/snow mix is the best we'll see.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF for Tuesday system

It's amazing how consistently stingy that model is for snow up here. I guess it's usually right, but even when we get nailed the ECMWF is usually the last to pick up on it and shows the smallest totals. It seems a lot more variable run to run in what it shows down there. 

[Cold Snap]

Oh how the tables have turned.

[HuskyMaestro]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Look at that tiny green snowhole right over where Fife is, surrounded by blue in Tacoma and Federal Way. It's so on par

[smerfylicious]

34 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

WRF can die in a fire. 

[Cold Snap]

06z NAM 3km is a boom for me.

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

06z NAM 3km is a boom for me.

Same here! Looks juicy for tomorrow night.

[Cold Snap]

RGEM is still decent.

[Phil]

16 hours ago, Winterdog said:

The GFS is just an awful model for snow totals.  I actually started to think the more it showed the better chance for snow.  Not true.  That model's output for snowfall is not much better than a random generator.  34 after a low of 32.7

Yeah it’s a piece of garbage. You’re better off ignoring it and relying solely on Euro/EPS and CMC as far as globals are concerned.

15 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

You all enjoying that snow guys? 

Still hasn't really snowed at all here other than that one day in December. And more thunderstorms might be on the way tomorrow. 

I think late March could be interesting for some early season severe. Some more zonal momentum will get into the CONUS after the mid-March cold wave.

13 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Nino's can be good, I mean in the inverse CA is currently scoring big time in a Nina when its statistically dry there in Ninas.  Maybe we'll get a modoki or something hybrid ish/neutral

CA is scoring largely due to the -NAO/-PNA tandem forcing troughs to dig south upon reaching the west coast. Opposite of the +TNH/Hudson Bay vortex pattern that leaves CA high and dry.

10 hours ago, MossMan said:

I can literally see the CZ to my south while I am still sunny…My old house is probably getting nailed right now!

41 degrees, DP down to 28. 

Still haven’t fixed that tree.  

8 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

Yeppers. Euro is titanium strong.

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Oh how the tables have turned.

That’s pretty effing wild. Wonder how much longer it can run..seems to be a big shake-up after the super niño in 2015/16.

[GHweatherChris]

Kinda looks double barrelled....

 

 

[Phil]

Something is really off about the pattern evolution this year. Usually I can recognize homogeneities in the pattern(s) from year to year, but I feel like I’m flying blind now.

Of course February was easy to predict due to a compilation of canonical forcings, and it’s clear there will be increasing momentum/pacific jet influence late in March given standard transports of AAM, but this isn’t the sequence or timing that I would expect from muscle memory.

It’s brand spanking new!

[Meatyorologist]

Make this make sense @Phil. How does this sounding match with the depicted weather?? #gooooooooooooofus

[GHweatherChris]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Something is really off about the pattern evolution this year. Usually I can recognize homogeneities in the pattern(s) from year to year, but I feel like I’m flying blind now.

Of course February was easy to predict due to a compilation of canonical forcings, and it’s clear there will be increasing momentum/pacific jet influence late in March given standard transports of AAM, but this isn’t the sequence or timing that I would expect from muscle memory.

It’s brand spanking new!

"At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Aurora y’all. If you have a clearing north go look!

[Timmy]

Bust down here for the Gem, GFS and Euro. The Graf and RGEM were the only ones not showing snow. 

[TacomaWx]

Looks like I slept through the night and woke up at the right time…33 here and precip is moving in. Not sure how heavy it is. Unfortunately gotta drive to Redmond this morning so won’t be home for it.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

"At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

I swear that was the clonazepam talking.

[TacomaWx]

Thick layer of ice on the car this morning…looks like some slushy snow fell at some point last night but barely any. 

[FroYoBro]

Well looks like my hope for last night didn’t pan out and the models were accurate. Just not enough juice to that band that came through this morning. Oh well! Still a great end to winter! 

[SnowWillarrive]

56 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like I slept through the night and woke up at the right time…33 here and precip is moving in. Not sure how heavy it is. Unfortunately gotta drive to Redmond this morning so won’t be home for it.

Yea looks like a huge slug of precip moving in now. Might complicate the morning commute for some. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF showed 28 at SEA this morning... but its actually 35.    However the dewpoint is 27 and the flow will stay offshore today so what falls should be snow.  

[MossMan]

Currently 31.0 and quite frozen outside. Incredible! 

[snow maniac]

Light snow starting here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z NAM is way north of its 00Z run for tomorrow.   Mainly a north Sound event on this run.   But its the NAM.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z NAM is way north of its 00Z run for tomorrow.   Mainly a north Sound event on this run.   But its the NAM.

What time are the festivities supposed to start up this way? 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

What time are the festivities supposed to start up this way? 

Well if we are following the NAM... a light band of snow around mid-day today and then the main band of precip reaches the Seattle area by 10 p.m. and up there by 1 a.m. and then it sort of parks itself up there all morning tomorrow.   

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Well if we are following the NAM... a light band of snow around mid-day today and then the main band of precip reaches the Seattle area by 10 p.m. and up there by 1 a.m. and then it sort of parks itself up there all morning tomorrow.   

Glad the NAM will be wrong 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the HRRR basically agrees with the NAM.    But its the HRRR and that is worse than being the NAM.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Glad the NAM will be wrong 

Yeah... best to go with ECMWF.   Precip doesn't shift as far north tomorrow so both the Seattle and Randy get in on the fun.    Although there is that annoying donut hole showing up for the south Sound even on the ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile the GFS shows a very wide extent of the precip and everywhere from Whistler to Medford gets snow tomorrow!

[TacomaWx]

Not sure what to make of the models…all over the place for tonight. Getting about an inch atleast seems likely still. Probably just need to watch on radar as it comes in since we still won’t have it resolved today it looks like. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t have much to say at this point. Looks like we should at least get several inches tonight. After that things remain cool and unsettled, but there isn’t one day or pattern that is locked in for snow, but likely some decent chances. The pattern later this week through the weekend looks chilly, but the trough is a bit offshore and digs pretty far into CA with a lot of the moisture. Maybe if it ends up being centered more over us there will be additional snow chances. That period around the 10th looks intriguing too, but the lowlands are really battling climo by then. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure what to make of the models…all over the place for tonight. Getting about an inch atleast seems likely still. Probably just need to watch on radar as it comes in since we still won’t have it resolved today it looks like. 

These weak surface low set ups are pretty much impossible for the models to handle accurately.   

[TacomaWx]

Might have to find a reason not to go into work tomorrow lol. Good chance I’ll have to drive up to Redmond tomorrow again and it looks like it could be a nightmare getting up here. Would rather not do it. 

[T-Town]

Saw a couple flakes on my 5 am walk, but nothing since. Radar looks good here but nothing falling. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

These weak surface low set ups are pretty much impossible for the models to handle accurately.   

Yeah, get the feeling tomorrow might be pretty significant and widespread…more so than whats being shown on the models. 

[MWG]

Dry! Almost giving up on this storm for us but let’s see what today brings.