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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Neighbors are complaining. We had this much snow in December 2021, February 2019, March 2012, January 2012… She’s lived here way longer than me, just complaining to complain. 🤦‍♂️

35D2E7AA-8CB5-4EA8-9161-3E9D96B90ED8.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Neighbors are complaining. We had this much snow in December 2021, February 2019, March 2012, January 2012… She’s lived here way longer than me, just complaining to complain. 🤦‍♂️

35D2E7AA-8CB5-4EA8-9161-3E9D96B90ED8.jpeg

You should print out a weenie tag on a piece of paper, and tape it to her door. Maybe even a downvote. 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Less than 0.25" fell last night. Just enough to whiten the grass and briefly dot the roads during the heaviest portion.

Unfortunately this immeasurable snow (or insignificant 1/8") doesn't get us to 6", or our seasonal average. We very well may finish the cold season off as a below average snow season here despite countless snowfall chances and persistently cool weather outside of January, in the midst of a La Niña.

And don't misunderstand me... I am grateful for late December and the years of good luck I've had since 2019. And I'm also grateful for the bountiful, soon-to-be record breaking wet season in the drought stricken SW.

But it's still a drag that we observed basically the bottom 5-10%ile of potential seasonal snowfall accumulations given how the weather patterns played out. Roll the dice again and I think we push past 10", easy.

Oh, and it should go without saying that I am very happy for all who are seeing a big storm right now, and those that have lucked out this season. The only thing worse than not being a winner is there being no winners.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Neighbors are complaining. We had this much snow in December 2021, February 2019, March 2012, January 2012… She’s lived here way longer than me, just complaining to complain. 🤦‍♂️

35D2E7AA-8CB5-4EA8-9161-3E9D96B90ED8.jpeg

She should move to Oak Grove or Milwaukie.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

And don't misunderstand me... I am grateful for late December and the years of good luck I've had since 2019. And I'm also grateful for the bountiful, soon-to-be record breaking wet season in the drought stricken SW.

But it's still a drag that we observed basically the bottom 5-10%ile of potential seasonal snowfall accumulations given how the weather patterns played out. Roll the dice again and I think we push past 10", easy.

Oh, and it should go without saying that I am very happy for all who are seeing a big storm right now, and those that have lucked out this season. The only thing worse than not being a winner is there being no winners.

Yeah, had things played out slightly different we could’ve had over a foot here this winter. We came very close to a big one across the region in late December. This morning could’ve played out a bit differently too. Still it’s way better than a dud. 

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Still coming down pretty good here, just got a text from my son who works in Hamilton (east of Sedro Woolley) and he said it is absolutely dumping there.

 

I'm guessing we are approaching 2” with the temp right about 32.

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You should print out a weenie tag on a piece of paper, and tape it to her door. Maybe even a downvote. 

I met her when I cut up a huge tree that fell in the September 2020 wind storm and then she added me. She literally blows up the Facebooks with complaints. She also told me she has lived here 40 years... One would think she would be used to it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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17 minutes ago, MWG said:

If this doesn’t keep going through the day we will def warm up and everything will melt by the afternoon lol but enjoying while I can. 

 

It’s almost March. There will be afternoon warming and melting. Just comes with the territory with late-season snowfalls.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Saturday keeps looking more and more interesting. 

snku_024h-imp.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Still coming down pretty good here, just got a text from my son who works in Hamilton (east of Sedro Woolley) and he said it is absolutely dumping there.

 

I'm guessing we are approaching 2” with the temp right about 32.

Euro was calling for 3–4" in Bellingham. I waved it off and downgraded it to up to 2" because it had been busting so much with this pattern. Looks like it’s going to verify on this one.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saturday keeps looking more and more interesting. 

snku_024h-imp.us_nw.png

12Z GEM shows precip on Saturday as well... but its a little too warm for lowland snow.  

gem-all-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7974400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like another big storm into California around day 9/10. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 hours ago, mtep said:

Girlfriend and I made it to Seatac from ABQ around 11. The drive back to Bham was white knuckle for the majority of the trip. The snow around Everett and then north of Marysville around Randy was f****** insane. Easily the worst visibility ive experienced as far as highway driving in the snow goes. I usually actually enjoy driving in snow but its less fun at night when its coming down like that. 

34 at home right now and mostly dry. Wasnt as much snow in the Chuckanut pass as i thought there would be. Hopefully we get at least dusting over the next few hours. 

20230228_015419.jpg

This is just north of smokey pt Costco where the speed limit (in normal conditions goes up) or is this by Quil Ceda /116th?

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 hour ago, MWG said:

Roads are a mess around here! Ice under the snow cover roads! This is always the major issue around here.

How much did you get????

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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40 mins after measuring, my table is completely clear of snow. I did also measure in a different spot away from the sun and had the same result. #sunangles. My usual measurement spot is out of the early sun's rays so it's a great place to check normally.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Interesting pattern!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_39.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like we ended up with 3.5" this morning, 4.5" since last night. Now 32.6" on the month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM shows precip on Saturday as well... but its a little too warm for lowland snow.  

gem-all-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7974400.png

Pretty hard to take the 2.6” the gfs spits out this weekend seriously. It’s possible there could be more lowland snow coming up…but getting harder for it to happen each passing day below 500’. I don’t expect we see any more snow in the next couple weeks. 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pretty hard to take the 2.6” the gfs spits out this weekend seriously. It’s possible there could be more lowland snow coming up…but getting harder for it to happen each passing day below 500’. I don’t expect we see any more snow in the next couple weeks. 

This is the 12Z ICON for the next week... which includes the snow falling right now up north.    I probably trust the ICON more than the GFS at this point.  

icon-all-washington-total_snow_10to1-8233600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Although the 00Z ECMWF also showed snow for the Seattle area on Saturday... so it could definitely happen.   It will be interesting to see if the 12Z run shows the same thing.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

ICON killed the king this morning. RIP euro. 

Euro has been pretty garbage down here for the past few days too. Just hasn't been able to nail these marginal setups. The ICON has held its own vs any other model even for the Wednesday event last week in PDX. 

That being said all the models really have struggled with these more recent marginal setups. 

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12z GFS is going to plow the westerlies through in mid-March. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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