PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[T-Town]

55 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Only a dusting fell by 1:30am? That’s crazy we probably had 3/4 to almost 1” here by that time. We didn’t get much accumulation after about 2:30-3:00am roughly. I believe the gfs and euro run’s yesterday afternoon had us at 1.2-1.4” so it was very close to being accurate atleast here. Haven’t been down to the waterfront but I’d guess they had less than half what I got. 

I’m pretty exposed to the sw wind here so maybe that made a difference.
 

Current state shown below. 

[SnowWillarrive]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There was an insane steep gradient in the first 100 m of elevation here, from a slushy inch on the beaches to over a foot in the higher hills. Living near a ridge top really helped me score last night.

Are you a dual citizen?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Blue sky and snow is a winning combination even when there is a melt-a-thon underway.

[T-Town]

Olympics looking snowy. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Are you a dual citizen?

Nope, just here on a work permit, hoping to get permanent residency.

[BlvuSumit]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love that area up there.  You must be very close the Newcastle golf course.    The views up there on a clear day are truly stunning!  

Man if you like weather… wind events outrageous up here because unobstructed exposure and you can see it coming as the transformer flashes work their way up the puget lowlands. And of course elevation nice for the snow events. And during inversions you’re above the socked in fog. 
down below is the golf course (see open snowy are in foto). But man is the wear and tear on home is brutal!

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weekend trough looks improved. 

12Z GFS shows lots of Hood Canal snow over the weekend... but a little too warm elsewhere.    

[Hawksfan2008]

I selfishly wish the NWS would go into more detail sometimes given how few exciting events we get. Someone is going to get smacked on Tuesday but no mention of the impact of different low placements/deformation band. Going with 1-3 inches for many. 

[AlTahoe]

35 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The GFS is just an awful model for snow totals.  I actually started to think the more it showed the better chance for snow.  Not true.  That model's output for snowfall is not much better than a random generator.  34 after a low of 32.7

It's a resolution issue. If your a low elevation location next to mountains it has zero chance of verification in marginal temp scenario's. Gfs last week was showing 150-200" for donner summit in the 15 day and it looks like it will verify after this next blizzard finishes. It had 60-90" for my house and it is going to verify as well. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

It's a resolution issue. If your a low elevation location next to mountains it has zero chance of verification in marginal temp scenario's. Gfs last week was showing 150-200" for donner summit in the 15 day and it looks like it will verify after this next blizzard finishes. It had 60-90" for my house and it is going to verify as well. 

That is the issue in my area... too close to the mountains the only way I know the GFS is seriously showing snow for my area is when it shows snow in the Seattle area.   Verbatim... I would probably have like 500 inches of snow this winter per the GFS.  

[TacomaWx]

16 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I’m pretty exposed to the sw wind here so maybe that made a difference.
 

Current state shown below. 

Maybe being a few miles south as well. Don’t know if the wind was a big factor last night it was blowing hard at times. Was really fun from 11pm-3am though! 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, BlvuSumit said:

Man if you like weather… wind events outrageous up here because unobstructed exposure and you can see it coming as the transformer flashes work their way up the puget lowlands. And of course elevation nice for the snow events. And during inversions you’re above the socked in fog. 
down below is the golf course (see open snowy are in foto). But man is the wear and tear on home is brutal!

We looked at property somewhere up that way probably 13 or so years ago, the view was incredible and all I could think of was the snowfall potential! 

[TT-SEA]

Getting some short sun breaks here now... and still have some wind swept snowflakes at the same time.

[Skagit Weather]

40 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The GFS is just an awful model for snow totals.  I actually started to think the more it showed the better chance for snow.  Not true.  That model's output for snowfall is not much better than a random generator.  34 after a low of 32.7

The Euro hasn't been much better this week. It's routinely been showing anywhere from 10-20" of snow for the next week up here. I'll be shocked if we end up getting 10% of that. Reminds me of November? (or was it December) when it was showing almost a foot of snow the night before and all we had was 38F rain.

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

It's a resolution issue. If your a low elevation location next to mountains it has zero chance of verification in marginal temp scenario's. Gfs last week was showing 150-200" for donner summit in the 15 day and it looks like it will verify after this next blizzard finishes. It had 60-90" for my house and it is going to verify as well. 

I've noticed that too, in places that are not marginal (ie high elevation areas 3000-4000' +) it seems to be quite good, low elevations or areas of variable elevation change, not so much

[LowerGarfield]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Breakfast! 

What is that giant black bird next to the sheep? Looks a bit large for a chicken.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

The Euro hasn't been much better this week. It's routinely been showing anywhere from 10-20" of snow for the next week up here. I'll be shocked if we end up getting 10% of that. Reminds me of November? (or was it December) when it was showing almost a foot of snow the night before and all we had was 38F rain.

This week atleast here in the south sound might play out very similar to late November-early Decembers events. Bunch of 32-34 degree snows with the snow level at about 100’. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

The Euro hasn't been much better this week. It's routinely been showing anywhere from 10-20" of snow for the next week up here. I'll be shocked if we end up getting 10% of that. Reminds me of November? (or was it December) when it was showing almost a foot of snow the night before and all we had was 38F rain.

These marginal situations cause the models huge problems and when the marginal situation goes on for a week or more the total snowfall maps get pretty ridiculous.  

[MossMan]

[SouthHillFrosty]

The mesoscale models are picking something up….

[Phishy Wx]

NAM hates Spokane but has been pretty close with this event.  yesterday was showing 1-2" seems like that may even be a little aggressive but close.  The HRW suite has been pretty close too.  RDPS, not so much 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The mesoscale models are picking something up….

Pepto needs to trend a little more north. 

[Timmy Supercell]

You all enjoying that snow guys? 

Still hasn't really snowed at all here other than that one day in December. And more thunderstorms might be on the way tomorrow. 

[smerfylicious]

Well NWS and all the models except WRF busted for my area.

NWS thought we were getting 3".

We got zero. It just never cooled down enough, even with extremely low dew points and relatively low temps. Nothing more disappointing 

[MossMan]

What happened to that deformation or CZ band that showed my area getting nuked…I want those maps back. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

NAM hates Spokane but has been pretty close with this event.  yesterday was showing 1-2" seems like that may even be a little aggressive but close.  The HRW suite has been pretty close too.  RDPS, not so much 

I’m just going to take a moment to remind you that you probably live in the best climate for cold and snow than any other Oregon/Washington poster.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m just going to take a moment to remind you that you probably live in the best climate for cold and snow than any other Oregon/Washington poster.

It's been decent this year.  This season has been weird.  way more nickel and dimers than normal.  only one real 'big' (6"+) event to speak of (7.5" on 11/30). Jan and Feb have been pretty crappy so far for snow. I think we'll come in right at or just below normal on annual snowfall this season.  Not exactly what I was expecting for a triple dip Nina.  it'll be ok though, still some late season chances

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

It's been decent this year.  This season has been weird.  way more nickel and dimers than normal.  only one real 'big' (6"+) event to speak of (7.5" on 11/30). Jan and Feb have been pretty crappy so far for snow. I think we'll come in right at or just below normal on annual snowfall this season.  Not exactly what I was expecting for a triple dip Nina.  it'll be ok though, still some late season chances

What’s your total?

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What’s your total?

airport is at 42.8". i'm probably 6" or so less.  I'm at 2100' airport is like 2400'

airport is right at normal currently.

[Cloud]

Got about 1” here which is not bad! Melt off already commenced with sunbreaks. All will be gone by noon. 
 

 

[Phishy Wx]

I guess the extreme front loaded winter on this side has thrown me off a bit

[MossMan]

It appears that Snowmizer was the big winner in western Wa! 

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Got about 1” here which is not bad! Melt off already commenced with sunbreaks. All will be gone by noon. 
 

 

It’s crazy when Boeing field gets more snow than Duvall. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

It appears that Snowmizer was the big winner in western Wa! 

And he might be in the best spot going forward for the next week as well.

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Currently at Ocean Shores

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

 

[T-Town]

36 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The mesoscale models are picking something up….

Go RGEM!!!  

[thickhog]

36 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The mesoscale models are picking something up….

Instead of posting the NAM someone should just let a toddler color on a map. Equally predictive for this area.

[Perturbed Member]

Southerlies broke through about 8 AM here, temp is 35.4F now. Got about 2 inches of new snow on non road surfaces and just 1 inch on the road which is now quickly turned to slush. 

No complaints from me though. I do wish it had gone a bit better for most of the PDX metro, was just a bit too warm last night. 

[RCola]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is farther north on Tuesday than previous runs and pretty crazy for the Seattle area.

I'll believe it when I see it. GFS was terribly overdone near the sound. Divide that by 6 for Seattle.

[Weiner Warrior]

Ended up with around 3 inches. Quick melting this AM. Wouldn't be suprised if most of it melts off today. 

[KingstonWX]

Welp, for as much as I gave the NWS for advertising a half inch or less for my area despite models saying otherwise, they really nailed it. I can't speak for other areas, but they were spot on for me. 

[Gummy]

1 minute ago, RCola said:

I'll believe it when I see it. GFS was terribly overdone near the sound. Divide that by 6 for Seattle.

Yea the Euro was much closer to reality on the totals

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I will post pics later but this was the most beautiful winter morning here of the season and one of the best I've ever seen here. A couple nice one's here. As of 10am it is still 32.2 degrees but melt is very fast where sun is hitting. Also was amazed by the quality of the snow, this was light fluffy snow and not even wet. Absolutely amazing event for late February.  Right at 5 inches.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is a little farther south... notable improvement for the Seattle area for Tuesday.     Models seem to be converging on the same track of the low.    The devil is in the details in terms of precip amounts and temps.

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

We will see what happens today/tonight. I’m not expecting a whole lot of action here, although it is possible we could get a bit of snow tonight or maybe some hail this afternoon. Our next good chance will be tomorrow night. 

I’m just good with the active weather regardless.  Been fun this year with all our chances.  Been years where absolutely nothing falls.  So this has been a real treat! Gorgeous out now

39* with south winds still blowing 15-20 

[MillCreekMike]

Surprisingly the GFS did the best here out of all the models. All models were showing 1.5”+ here and the GFS was the lowest at 1.5”. Even the ECMWF had me getting near 2”. Definitely a tough situation for the models to get right as a lot of other areas near the sound had the same fate unfortunately. Got 0.25” in reality.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is a little farther south... notable improvement for the Seattle area for Tuesday.     Models seem to be converging on the same track of the low.    The devil is in the details in terms of precip amounts and temps.

I’m liking what I see. What time will snow start on Monday? This looks way better than last night. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

.75in total that is almost melted already 

[MossMan]

Getting quite breezy and the sun is popping out. 36 degrees.