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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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38 minutes ago, thickhog said:

One consequnce of this event is that the model-riding is gonna get even more manic around here. At least in the Portland area, it’s been easy to default to a “trust the mets” attitude. That was my bias for sure. Because they’ve been right to be a wet blanket on our snow chances for years now. But this one was brutal; all of the best models were showing a significant event 24 hours out and they still refused to bite. It’s a good reminder that they’ll miss the outliers, and those are typically our best storms.

Now who has the latest hour 354 snow map?

I'm sorry, but there is a massive difference between a 384 hour snow map and a 24 hour snow map. Disregarding a 24 hour snow map because it isn't close to climo is absolutely ridiculous. The thing with outliers is that they DO happen. You can't just disregard the models consensus because it shows something unusual happening.

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4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Went out to lunch and to do some shopping since the roads are clear now. The snow has pretty much all melted and it's 34 degrees here in NW Vancouver.

I'm super stoked for everyone else in the NW right now but I'd be lying if I said this one doesn't sting pretty bad.

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We’re like eight miles from there. That’s an insane difference.

That temp of 34 is 100% wrong though.

Edited by Cascadia_Wx

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Went out to lunch and to do some shopping since the roads are clear now. The snow has pretty much all melted and it's 34 degrees here in NW Vancouver.

I'm super stoked for everyone else in the NW right now but I'd be lying if I said this one doesn't sting pretty bad.

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You should just drive several miles down I-205 to the Mill Plain exit if you’re sad about missing the snow. Also get your car’s thermometer checked.

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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NAM is pretty bullish Sunday morning. 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_46.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Went out to lunch and to do some shopping since the roads are clear now. The snow has pretty much all melted and it's 34 degrees here in NW Vancouver.

I'm super stoked for everyone else in the NW right now but I'd be lying if I said this one doesn't sting pretty bad.

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Not sure if you'll be here Saturday night but that smells like a setup where places north of SR-500 in Vancouver will probably do a lot better than the rest of the metro area. Weak southerly gradients typically have a tougher time breaking through north of there so temps will probably stay in the 32 range for awhile. Looks like a good bet to drop a quick 2-3".

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We’re like eight miles from there. That’s an insane difference.

That temp of 34 is 100% wrong though.

Really? You sure about that? The lack of snow is allowing it to warm up more than surrounding areas. Multiple other weather stations in the area confirm this.

 

temp 1.PNG

temp 2.PNG

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14 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Went out to lunch and to do some shopping since the roads are clear now. The snow has pretty much all melted and it's 34 degrees here in NW Vancouver.

I'm super stoked for everyone else in the NW right now but I'd be lying if I said this one doesn't sting pretty bad.

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That’s pretty crazy. Salmon Creek/Felida is usually money for being a Clark County hotspot for accumulations.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Fun landing in Seattle with the east winds!  Just as we were about to touch down the wind grabbed the plane tilting the right wing toward the ground! Needless to say he aborted the landing.  Secondary attempt was rough as well but he put it down with passengers clapping  😀! Picture of us cutting over Seattle to do short final rather than the long final around the space needle.  

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

That’s pretty crazy. Salmon Creek/Felida is usually money for being a Clark County hotspot for accumulations.

Yeah. To be fair, I was in town for the April snowstorm as well, and I'm pretty sure we did better than literally anyone else that day. Ended up with like 9" here or something stupid like that.

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54 minutes ago, Doinko said:

At least Mark Nelsen acknowledged that there was real potential for a snowstorm. He even mentioned we could get a January 2017 surprise and clearly communicated that everyone should leave and get home early. The NWS just put out some random percentages in their AFDs

That is true. Mark didn't bite for the longest time, but when he finally - sort of - came around he was one of the few local mets that warned everyone to go home early.

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can’t understand why anyone who flew up here on a whim specifically to see snow would spend all day in the least snowy part of town when there are widespread 8-10” totals just several miles away.

Maybe because I didn't fly up here specifically to see snow, lol. I maybe chose to time my trip for right now because of the snow, but I had to come up here within the next couple weeks anyway for totally unrelated reasons. I apologize for not sharing the finer details of my personal life on a public forum.

You realize I just came from California where the mountains less than an hour away are currently getting 7-10 feet of snow, right? If I wanted to travel 100% for snow there was a much better option available to me.

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I know Moss had snow but did any places in Thurston or Pierce co get some good snow. I'm having a debate with a coworker who says it's quiet because of school district closures.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Maybe because I didn't fly up here specifically to see snow, lol. I maybe chose to time my trip for right now because of the snow, but I had to come up here within the next couple weeks anyway for totally unrelated reasons. I apologize for not sharing the finer details of my personal life on a public forum, lol.

You realize I just came from California where the mountains less than an hour away are currently getting 7-10 feet of snow, right? If I wanted to travel 100% for snow there was a much better option available to me.

Maybe I misread your posts yesterday or even missed some, I definitely wasn’t on all day. I was under the impressive you flew up here due to the imminent snowstorm. Makes sense that there were other reasons too.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That’s pretty crazy. Salmon Creek/Felida is usually money for being a Clark County hotspot for accumulations.

There was a pretty prominent hole from Hazel Dell to Ridgefield once we got cold enough for accumulations in the late afternoon. Hours of really light stuff with a lot more precip on both sides of it. Sounds like Scappoose was reporting 6" and Battle Ground down to Orchards also had 5-6".

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