Geos Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 12Z ECMWF says we get into the action starting around 9 or 10 p.m. tonight. I think that's a bit too late. Showers already into Port Townsend. Clouds are building here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 You sure like keeping yourself entertained manipulating everyone's quotes!Seemed like a nice cap off to the completely nonsensical debate we’ve been having. I don’t generally make a habit of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 I think that's a bit too late. Showers already into Port Townsend. Clouds are building here.This front and the satellite look very much like Friday at the same time. ECMWF shows some precip in the Cascades late this afternoon but the main frontal band waits until after dark to move into the Seattle area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Wunderground saying Florence could be the Harvey of the East Coast...https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Florence-Expected-Rapidly-Intensify-Serious-Rainfall-Threat-US-East-Coast?cm_ven=hp-slot-1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 You're right, Portland and other cherry picked locations were actually semi-arid until 1870 or so.I never said the Willamette valley was semi arid, I said that it was close in proximity to areas that are... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 F*ck this place.I told you a few weeks ago that you have had your straw man privileges revoked. You keep forgetting. Obviously people are upset with all the dying trees and these hellishly nice summers because they love this place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 The ECMWF has a Wilmington, NC landfall for the third cycle in a row. Has been pretty consistent there. Will it embarrass the GFS once again? Time will tell. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 850s drop to 3 on the 12z GFS ensemble. That's getting pretty nippy. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 I never said the Willamette valley was semi arid, I said that it was close in proximity to areas that are... Except it isn't. Certainly not any closer than the Puget Sound lowlands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 I told you a few weeks ago that you have had your straw man privileges revoked. You keep forgetting. Obviously people are upset with all the dying trees and these hellishly nice summers because they love this place.Aren't you moving ASAP? It's not love it AND leave it... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 I told you a few weeks ago that you have had your straw man privileges revoked. You keep forgetting. Obviously people are upset with all the dying trees and these hellishly nice summers because they love this place. As I mentioned the other day I think this whacko ENSO regime we are in is probably responsible (at least in part) for these consistently hot summers lately. We have been in a rut of summer El Nino head fakes or at least spikes to the warmest anomalies of the year during the summer for a while now. It's fascinating how autumn, winter, and spring have shown no sign of the consistent warmth that summer has displayed. At this point I think this month has a good chance of finishing on the cool side of normal. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 F*ck this place.Alaska is going to be the next Florida by the end of the century.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 850s drop to 3 on the 12z GFS ensemble. That's getting pretty nippy.Stick to the drought, plz. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Aren't you moving ASAP? It's not love it AND leave it...This will always be my home. Even if short term career or grad school related moves become necessary. But nothing is set in stone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 You're right, Portland and other cherry picked locations were actually semi-arid until 1870 or so.Definitely an exception to the rule, but there was an extremely hot, dry period from 1000AD-1250AD, which encompassed most of the western two thirds of North America below 50-55N, including the PNW. There are indications that the Pacific Hadley Cell might have been even more expanded back then compared to now, given the rainfall gradient appeared to be displaced further north by ~ 500-1000 miles during the worst stages of the megadrought (depending on how one selects, interprets, and spatially interpolates the various available proxies for such phenomena). Moral of the story: it could be worse. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Definitely an exception to the rule, but there was an extremely hot, dry period from 1000AD-1250AD, which encompassed most of the western two thirds of North America below 50-55N, including the PNW. There are indications that the Pacific Hadley Cell might have been even more expanded back then compared to now, given the rainfall gradient appeared to be displaced further north by ~ 500-1000 miles during the worst stages of the megadrought (depending on how one selects, interprets, and spatially interpolates the various available proxies for such phenomena). Moral of the story: it could be worse. Renton, WA was extremely lush the entire time, though. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 The ECMWF has a Wilmington, NC landfall for the third cycle in a row. Has been pretty consistent there. Will it embarrass the GFS once again? Time will tell. We're out of range for the 12km NAM still, but you can see it is favoring the more southern route like the EURO. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Definitely an exception to the rule, but there was an extremely hot, dry period from 1000AD-1250AD, which encompassed most of the western two thirds of North America below 50-55N, including the PNW. There are indications that the Pacific Hadley Cell might have been even more expanded back then compared to now, given the rainfall gradient appeared to be displaced further north by ~ 500-1000 miles during the worst stages of the megadrought (depending on how one selects, interprets, and spatially interpolates the various available proxies for such phenomena). Moral of the story: it could be worse.I think the moral of the story is that it could never be worse than what it is doing at dca RIGHT NOW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 This will always be my home. Even if short term career or grad school related moves become necessary. But nothing is set in stone.Well we'll welcome you back with open arms or at least some dead branches. #it'llbeworsebythen 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Well we'll welcome you back with open arms or at least some dead branches. #it'llbeworsebythen#stopbeingsodramatic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Renton, WA was extremely lush the entire time, though.Are you really in Blythe? Love that area. I'm thinking of going to Quartzsite this winter. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Definitely an exception to the rule, but there was an extremely hot, dry period from 1000AD-1250AD, which encompassed most of the western two thirds of North America below 50-55N, including the PNW. There are indications that the Pacific Hadley Cell might have been even more expanded back then compared to now, given the rainfall gradient appeared to be displaced further north by ~ 500-1000 miles during the worst stages of the megadrought (depending on how one selects, interprets, and spatially interpolates the various available proxies for such phenomena). Moral of the story: it could be worse.You're gonna pay for this. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 The ECMWF has a Wilmington, NC landfall for the third cycle in a row. Has been pretty consistent there. Will it embarrass the GFS once again? Time will tell.It takes the absolute worst possible track for Wilmington Metro. Looks like landfall is just to the west of Wilmington on Bald Head Island. It would bring tremendous storm surge up the Cape Fear River. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Since Tim is probably mowing his lawn, I will post this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Are you really in Blythe? Love that area. I'm thinking of going to Quartzsite this winter. Quartzsite is kind of eh. A bit wetter than Blythe and Yuma. Also why I avoid Phoenix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Gorgeous day so far... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Gusty out. Rains are coming again. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 I think the moral of the story is that it could never be worse than what it is doing at dca RIGHT NOW.Glass houses and stones. Lots of stones. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Glass houses and stones. Lots of stones.This forum is kind of like a glass apartment complex nextdoor to a quarry. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Rain and wind! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Gorgeous day so far... Looks nice. It's been completely wet here since yesterday morning and continues to rain as we speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Big improvements on the Euro days 5-8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 75 and mostly sunny here.. yardwork done. Time to watch some football. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 75 and mostly sunny here.. yardwork done. Time to watch some football.63 and raining here. Been watching football all day. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 58F with a little light rain at times. Nice to see the patriots start the season with a win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 76 and breezy To lazy today to do yard workFootball as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 It takes the absolute worst possible track for Wilmington Metro. Looks like landfall is just to the west of Wilmington on Bald Head Island. It would bring tremendous storm surge up the Cape Fear River. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018090912_99_480_149.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2018090912_102_480_149.png Yeah it is a really bad track for them. Downtown Wilmington is kind of on a hill over 30' amsl, but most of the city is under that. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 Gusty out. Rains are coming again. Same here. Breeze feels good. 72 currently. Bit warmer than I expected today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 76 and breezy To lazy today to do yard workFootball as well76 here as well... 77 in North Bend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 69 and sunny here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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