Esquimalt Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Same with the EC at onset, which in the protected Mitt isn't unreasonable tbh at this time of year. Evap cooling will usually kick in during the heavier precip with rain and/or drizzle on either side. Temps as shown fall off thru the day Friday into the mid-20's (brr). This isn't that deep of a system so the cold won't be rushing in like you get with a true bomb storm. This would be just a nice modest beginning to the snow season as currently depicted. Yeah I don't always truste raw model precip output, because it often misses evaporative cooling, sleet, wet snow and all of that good stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Bingo 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Canadian has the weekend clipper that the GFS is showing as well, but further north, mostly Northern IA, Southern, MN into WI. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018110412/174/snku_024h.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Ha ha models look like last year!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Yup, now Euro's weakening it. Still covers a lot of Kansas but in lighter amounts. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Canadian has the weekend clipper that the GFS is showing as well, but further north, mostly Northern IA, Southern, MN into WI. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018110412/174/snku_024h.us_mw.png #CLIMO Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Ha ha models look like last year!!Exactly what I was thinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 24 hour rain total for this system is 1.35" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 I picked up 1.33" from this system. I never saw any downpours. It was basically 16 hours of mostly light to occasionally moderate rain. The models may have dropped the late-week snow system for Iowa, but the cold is still there. Today's 12z euro even extended the cold through day ten, showing nothing but 20s and 30s. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 What a rainy weekend. Over inch and a half here. Wish it were snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 From NWS Detroit AFD: Confidence remains low regarding precipitation chances Friday as long-range models fail to converge on a steady solution and have produced drastic changes from run-to-run. GFS, which held precipitation (snow) chances across SE MI late Thursday into early Friday across SE MI per yesterday`s 12Z run now hold the precipitation well to the south, across southern Ohio. The ECMWF is persistent with precipitation chances early Friday, however, the solution space is now colder, supporting snow at the onset of precipitation. At this time, holding onto chance PoPs early Friday until better convergence is noted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Just saw this on twitter...day 5 to 10 average on the Euro at 2m...this is truly amazing! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 @esquimalt. Compare with 2014... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 @esquimalt. Compare with 2014...FB_IMG_1541355353048.jpg It appears a lot colder this time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 waves from some news cams on lake Michigan are insane! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Looks like our Wednesday/Thursday snow is fizzling out. Boo. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 I don't like the trend in the GFS today. It has been trending the Friday system warmer and delaying the entry of cool air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Looks like next weekends system wants to poop the bed also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Clouds are rolling in and rain on the way. Could be quite a bit too. Temp at 45F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Again, another garbage pattern. Cold is annoying with no snow to show for it. Not a big deal though, snow in early November has a hard time sticking around. I'd rather get it in December. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Again, another garbage pattern. Cold is annoying with no snow to show for it. Not a big deal though, snow in early November has a hard time sticking around. I'd rather get it in December. Even up to Ontario it is. As soon as the Great Lakes are factored in, they draw warmth and anything that looks like a snow maker becomes a rain maker. Jeez frustrating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Temps are rising. At 49F at this hour. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Even up to Ontario it is. As soon as the Great Lakes are factored in, they draw warmth and anything that looks like a snow maker becomes a rain maker. Jeez frustrating. Yep. Lake shadow's a snow killer for early season events. But it can sure add some inches to an event once we get to winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 PER NOAA: Confidence remains low regarding precipitation chances Friday aslong-range models fail to converge on a steady solution and haveproduced drastic changes from run-to-run. GFS, which heldprecipitation (snow) chances across SE MI late Thursday into earlyFriday across SE MI per yesterday`s 12Z run now hold theprecipitation well to the south, across southern Ohio. The ECMWF ispersistent with precipitation chances early Friday, however, thesolution space is now colder, supporting snow at the onset ofprecipitation. At this time, holding onto chance PoPs early Fridayuntil better convergence is noted. Expect some changes as models are all ova the place. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Some rain now started to fall. Winds are a little gusty as well. Temps at 50F. Its a mild evening, that's for sure. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 5 straight days with highs below 32F starting on Wed. Lows some nights in the mid teens. Impressive for early Nov. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Next 14 days still looking cold with some areas going to hang 8 to 15 degrees below average. That's cold right in the heart of the US for November. There is a very realistic pullbak of about 6-10 days coming in after. (Opinion only) If we can sort of "short-cycle" the pattern over the next 15 days, the post-Thanksgiving week time frame could (should) snap back and reload like we saw in October(And like 2009.) . Looking at a November close and December opening something like a mix of 2009 and 2013. Only thing we have guaranteed in the mid range is eastern 1/2 USA cold and an arctic that is colder than 2013. Therefore I can't stay with a model that rides full US warming for the full closing 3 weeks. (Euro opening of December). I think it is trying to slam too many ridges too close together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Next 14 days still looking cold with some areas going to hang 8 to 15 degrees below average. That's cold right in the heart of the US for November. There is a very realistic pullbak of about 6-10 days coming in after. (Opinion only) If we can sort of "short-cycle" the pattern over the next 15 days, the post-Thanksgiving week time frame could (should) snap back and reload like we saw in October(And like 2009.) . Looking at a November close and December opening something like a mix of 2009 and 2013. Only thing we have guaranteed in the mid range is eastern 1/2 USA cold and an arctic that is colder than 2013. Therefore I can't stay with a model that rides full US warming for the full closing 3 weeks. (Euro opening of December). I think it is trying to slam too many ridges too close together.Euro has had a notorious ridge bias lately if it's worth anything. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Euro has had a notorious ridge bias lately if it's worth anything.Hence my post. I didn't know if anyone else had quite caught that. Still want to clarify though, not on the CONTINUOUS cold train (yet), just haven't really seen enough to tell me that this next warmup is much of a threat or anything other than a transient ridge complex like we saw in late summer and mid-fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Do you guys use thickness to determine precip types? It has been used before on our west coast forums—typically 534 thickness and below is acceptable for snow. And if you look at the gfs for the 9th system, the snow line is practically right on the 540 line... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 We could only wish to see something like this! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 We could only wish to see something like this!Jeez what tight snowfall gradients. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 D**n gfs gives Ontario rain with that system with an air temperature of 34/35. I wonder if it’s misrepresenting precip types or temps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Good Monday to you all! What a week of weather that is forthcoming. As I mentioned before, even if I'm not in the direct spot to get hit with snow this week, as long as I can see the flakes fly during the upcoming cold snap I'm a happy camper. I have yet to see the flakes fly so that's what I'm hoping for. I think Chicago has a good shot at receiving its first 1"+ tally of snow by the end of the weekend. With that being said, the GL's region looks very wintry late week and into the weekend. Our MI peeps near the lake may be using their shovels/snow blowers as an intense early season arctic outbreak ignites the lake. 00z Euro...KC region still looks like they will see some snow later in the week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 I remember last year during Nov 8th-10th we had a PV-like intrusion that zipped across the GL's region due to the lack of blocking. Something that really stands out from this year's pattern is the amount of blocking we have had across parts of Canada/AK which allow rotating lobes of arctic air to penetrate deep into the CONUS. When looking back at the last couple years, we had a dominant northern stream storm track and a devil of a time to incorporate cold air into the wet pattern (except for those across the northern sub). To the contrary, this season, we can finally say that we have the cold and systems are digging/energizing in our regions. How do you get the coldest anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere on our side of the Pole??? Ask mother nature to park a lobe of the Polar Vortex across Canada. Long ago, I had this feeling the main attention will be across North America this cold season and we will get a taste of that this month. If everything works out just right, we are about to enter a record setting stretch of cold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Another year, another Polar Vortex intrusion in November??? Unlike last year, this year we will see the PV dig deeper and rotate lobes across the eastern CONUS. Just a remarkable pattern one I will vividly remember for a long time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Good Monday to you all! What a week of weather that is forthcoming. As I mentioned before, even if I'm not in the direct spot to get hit with snow this week, as long as I can see the flakes fly during the upcoming cold snap I'm a happy camper. I have yet to see the flakes fly so that's what I'm hoping for. I think Chicago has a good shot at receiving its first 1"+ tally of snow by the end of the weekend. With that being said, the GL's region looks very wintry late week and into the weekend. Our MI peeps near the lake may be using their shovels/snow blowers as an intense early season arctic outbreak ignites the lake. 00z Euro...KC region still looks like they will see some snow later in the week.I have gas for the snow blower, One thing I will say about the above snow map is that early in the season the first few lake snow events are many times further inland and not so much at the lake shore. The reason for that is the lake is still warm and that in turn keeps the lake shore areas warmer. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Cloudy currently w temps quite mild at 51F. Showers are about to end. Big time cold coming by weeks end. Hopefully, my area sees some flakes. Not looking very promising for any accumulations here IMBY. We will see. Temps for highs will be between 30-35 at its coldest and low 20s for low temps. BRRRRRRRRR!!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 We could only wish to see something like this!Fun to look at for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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