St Paul Storm Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Anyone thinking the next storm will be north is fooling themselves. Split flow pattern with a very strong southern stream means very little chance of anything north. Unless the setup changes, lock in the southern solutions. Not saying it can’t or won’t happen, but it doesn’t look likely atmAnd then the 12z GFS bumps the stream north. Right on cue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 GFS staying south and no cold air. All rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Yeah south with the weekend system then north with a system early next week. Should have clarified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 All models are different. This should be fun lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 And then the 12z GFS bumps the stream north. Right on cue.If we learned anything from this last system it's that models don't know s**t. Take my forecast instead! 14" for Southeast Lincoln. Lock it in. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Euro has been fairly solid lately. I'd ride that regardless of who's backyard it dumps on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Canadian brings the weekend system right through Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Sure looks like places that were dumped on will have to deal with rain this weekend. That would not be ideal. It sort of looks like the 2nd storm would have more cold air to look at but that is a week away. I will keep looking at the Euro for trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Cloudy and windy w temps near 35F. A few snowshowers from time to time. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Gfs FV3 crushes Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Gfs FV3 crushes IowaTemps are super marginal. 32-34 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Temps are super marginal. 32-34Great. Hopefully the column cools if we do get marginal ground temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Canadian brings the weekend system right through Iowa.What are temps like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just had a wind gust of 31 mph..sustained at 22. WCF in the 20s. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Great. Hopefully the column cools if we do get marginal ground temps.So far the trend in November has been snow even with marginal temps so maybe this will continue going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 GFS brings 3" of low ratio slop here this weekend. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Euro is a rain storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Great Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Heavy rain for northern half of iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Crazy path it takes from 120 to 144. It’s like it hits a brick wall and moves due north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Euro shows what FV3 was showing yesterday. The part of South Dakota that nobody lives in gets nailed, and everywhere South of there gets rain. Low goes right over St. Joe, which is a usually perfect track for here. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Euro shows what FV3 was showing yesterday. The part of South Dakota that nobody lives in gets nailed, and everywhere South of there gets rain. Low goes right over St. Joe, which is a usually perfect track for here.Haha that made me laugh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 GFS opens up the floodgates of cold at the end of the run. Gee, it'd sure be nice if we had some snow on the ground to prepare for that. I wonder where we could get some snow? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 A rain storm to open December. Not what i ordered lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Well, looks like we have something to track, I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Actually the Euro isn’t too bad since it pulls down so much cold air as it moves in. So we have a Dakotas/W MN snowstorm on the Euro, a south rainstorm on the GFS and something in between on the GEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 According to weather.us the euro shows almost 3.5” qpf of s ow in northern South Dakota from the weekend storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Don't discount the UKIE- it's a solid model that didn't flip flop on previous system. UKMET is way south at 120-- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 The amounts shown on that last run makes me wanna write off the last Euro run as cuckoo for cocoa puffs. 30" for Northeastern SD. The odd track the SLP takes isn't doing my skepticism any favors. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Was wondering how the Euro did on the last storm this far out, and man it seemed to get it pretty dang close. Hard to not trust that model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just realized we're discussing a December storm in a November thread, so I went ahead and fired up a December thread. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1900-december-2018-observations-and-discussion/ 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 The finial snow fall total here for this event at my house is 5.5" with a range of less than 1" to drifts of 6.8" This was a very wet snow so there was a lot of compacting. Will see what the official snow fall was at GRR. At the airport they reported 0.2" of snow fall before midnight. The current temperature here is 32° with cloudy skies' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Was wondering how the Euro did on the last storm this far out, and man it seemed to get it pretty dang close. Hard to not trust that model.it was about 30-40 miles too far north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 26, 2018 Report Share Posted November 26, 2018 Looks like the north country will be favored with the next system. Just not a lot of cold air around next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Cloudy and wind w snowshwers around. A coating out there, if that. Temp at 33F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Looks like the north country will be favored with the next system. Just not a lot of cold air around next weekend.Yup. My temps are in the 40s, but it does trend colder early next week and very cold by weeks end. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Currently at 6.5" snowfall for the month of November. Hopefully, my all time record breaks which is 11.5". We will see. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Fairly boring for the time being. Things should get rolling back to the more active/rainy/snowy cold pattern.Not looking forward o it too soon. Still have a repair due to the heating system. I'm on emergency heat right now and not a happy camper but so glad I don't live North. So,...what's the outlook for the Southern Plains timing wise and weather wise ?? Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Where is the 18z Euro available? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Where is the 18z Euro available? weather.us and/or a pay site as I understand it. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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