Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Who will be your backup forum poster while you are on injured reserve?Jesse said he'd pick up my homework for me and bring it to the house. Hope he's got chains! 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I have surgery on 12-27. Time for the reload!Boom, double whammy December in the works!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Jesse said he'd pick up my homework for me and bring it to the house. Hope he's got chains! I think he has an Outback... he don't need no stinkin chains! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I have surgery on 12-27. Time for the reload!Back or other? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Jesse said he'd pick up my homework for me and bring it to the house. Hope he's got chains!All wheel drive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 This looks like a Nino pattern to me on the 00Z GFS next week... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 This looks like a Nino pattern to me on the 00Z GFS next week... Looks splitty. Just need that ULL to beat it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I think he has an Outback... he don't need no stinkin chains! Very true. I got an outback last spring. Love it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 They definitely have colder overnight lows at Crooked River Ranch it seems, my friend seems excited about that. He knows he'll get less snow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 The GFS does not seem fun so far... Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Total split flow hell. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Total split flow hell. Would probably be a bunch of 40/23 type days. Could be worse. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Total split flow hell. All that analysis you did on the 18Z run and then the 00Z run jumps back to a solution like the 12Z run. It happens all the time in the 5-10 day period and I don't care what the stats show... the 06Z does the same thing. Here is an example using next Wednesday: 00Z GFS from last night: And then the crazy 06Z run: 12Z run back to reality... 18Z looks much more promising... And then the 00Z GFS goes back again: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Still a lot of cold air on this side of the globe. Anything is in play with a cold source like that. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Still a lot of cold air on this side of the globe. Anything is in play with a cold source like that. Heading down to Florida! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Heading down to Florida! That line of cold air could rotate around south west if the ridge pulls back east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Very true. I got an outback last spring. Love it. We got one last year, been great! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 At 300 hours we are right back exactly where we are today. <_> Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I think most would agree the 06z/18z duo tend to show the more extreme solutions. This has been the case for a while... Hence the whole 'drunk uncle' quip.I thought someone mention that there was going to be a 6 and 18z Euro that was going to start coming out? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Yeah, other mets were at least going with 1-5 inches.Yeah, I wish more mets would go with a "worst case scenario". In some situations the worst case isn't that far off from the consensus forecast but in other situations it is. I always try to envision the worst case scenario when I look at an incoming event, always best to prepare for the worst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 I thought someone mention that there was going to be a 6 and 18z Euro that was going to start coming out?There is, but I think it has limited features relative to the 00Z and 12Z. Also, few providers offer it so it's hard to find unless you have a subscription to one of the pay per view sites. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Yeah, I wish more mets would go with a "worst case scenario". In some situations the worst case isn't that far off from the consensus forecast but in other situations it is. I always try to envision the worst case scenario when I look at an incoming event, always best to prepare for the worst. Are you saying worst case scenario for weather weenies or the general public? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 January 2017 was cold and mostly sunny here but February we got several different snowfalls, including one 6 inch strait effec with snow event on the 6th and a 5 inch overrunning event with about 0.05-0.10 inches of ice on top two days later. Parts of shawnigan lake were knocked out of power for a few days with power lines down everywhere due to the several hours of freezing rain.Probably the most freezing rain I’ve seen or at least remember. 0.25”+ of accretion. I do remember a decent one as a kid, but there was no snow to go with that one. I remember it being in the mid 20s with heavy snow in the forecast and woke up to rain, I didn’t understand how that was even possible at the time. We often go years at a time without seeing legit freezing rain around here. We do get countless nights with temps around freezing where a brief rain shower will roll thru and turn the roads to instant skating rinks. But it’s usually too warm for rain to freeze on elevated surfaces. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 The operational is on the warm side of the ensemble for the Sunday-Monday trough. The mean looks solidly cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Yeah, I wish more mets would go with a "worst case scenario". In some situations the worst case isn't that far off from the consensus forecast but in other situations it is. I always try to envision the worst case scenario when I look at an incoming event, always best to prepare for the worst.Shock jock forecasting is DEFINITELY best practice. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Really warm down here in the eugenes. 62 degrees, breezy and dry at my location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 52F warm night. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 At 300 hours we are right back exactly where we are today. <_> It's almost like we live in the Pacific Northwest! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Would probably be a bunch of 40/23 type days. Could be worse. 1987-88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 It's almost like we live in the Pacific Northwest! Indeed! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 1987-88 As far as "bad" winters go that one was pretty good for NW OR and SW WA. Lots of cool weather and a bunch of small snow events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 As far as "bad" winters go that one was pretty good for NW OR and SW WA. Lots of cool weather and a bunch of small snow events. Agreed. I've always looked at 87-88 as a good example of a consistently chilly Nino winter. At least in modern times... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Up to 3 inches of rain today so far, hope it helps at least with the overall drought most of the region has been experiencing! Region of course includes, all of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, all of BC, most of Montana, northern California, parts of Utah and Nevada.. oh yeah, also any other state or region that helps with whatever you need for your preferred narrative.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Agreed. I've always looked at 87-88 as a good example of a consistently chilly Nino winter. At least in modern times...Surprisingly cool spring for following a Niño as well, although the transition to the big La Niña of 1988-89 might have been making its presence known at that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Up to 3 inches of rain today so far, hope it helps at least with the overall drought most of the region has been experiencing! Region of course includes, all of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, all of BC, most of Montana, northern California, parts of Utah and Nevada.. oh yeah, also any other state or region that helps with whatever you need for your preferred narrative.... Your region is generally defined as the area around you. For western WA... it naturally includes southern BC and northern OR and eastern WA. Seattle is very close to southern BC. I don't need people in the Portland area cutting off our region because of distance from Portland or because of an international border. I can be in southern BC in about 2 hours... it would take almost 3 hours to get to Portland. Vancouver BC is more my region than Salem. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Surprisingly cool spring for following a Niño as well, although the transition to the big La Niña of 1988-89 might have been making its presence known at that point. The trough on 4-30-1988 was a beast. Snow down to the hills in the Puget Sound. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Tornado day in western oregon tomorrow? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Your region is generally defined as the area around you. For western WA... it naturally includes southern BC and northern OR and eastern WA. Seattle is very close to southern BC. I don't need people in the Portland area cutting off our region because of distance from Portland or because of an international border. I can be in southern BC in about 2 hours... it would take almost 3 hours to get to Portland. Vancouver BC is more my region than Salem. But everywhere you stated is in "our region". To each their own I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Active weather approaching... Hopefully some of the heavier stuff reaches my area (sometimes it does). http://i67.tinypic.com/2dluc11.jpg Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2018 Report Share Posted November 27, 2018 Tornado day in western oregon tomorrow? Perhaps, will it be? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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