December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 40 here.  Nice and calm.  Feels like a nino outside.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still 40 here.  Nice and calm.  Feels like a nino outside.

 

These clouds have been slow to clear.

[Phil]

Pretty awful pattern. Looks like a classic winter goose egg unfolding for us.

Flatiron really likes it, though.

[MossMan]

I mowed some lawns today.

I last mowed on November 9th figuring that would be it for the season...my grass is still growing and needs to be mowed again...however one of my deck pulleys seized on my last pass on the last mow so it’s just going to be long and shaggy until spring.

[Requiem]

That 00z was god awful. 

 

Don't have a good feeling about this winter. Think we'll be lucky to have any significant storms in December.

[MossMan]

30f currently.

[TT-SEA]

Starry sky out there now... offshore flow might be slowly starting up.

[Bryant]

Don't have a good feeling about this winter. Think we'll be lucky to have any significant storms in December.

You flip flop more than the models do.

[ShawniganLake]

I last mowed on November 9th figuring that would be it for the season...my grass is still growing and needs to be mowed again...however one of my deck pulleys seized on my last pass on the last mow so it’s just going to be long and shaggy until spring.

Lucky it was the last pass. The freezes this week should put the grass to sleep. Until at least mid January.

[BLI snowman]

Flatiron really likes it, though.

Yeah, we've regressed a long ways from the glory days of -50c fantasyland runs.

[Jesse]

35 and getting frosty here.

[Requiem]

You flip flop more than the models do.

 

That's nice. When exactly have I flipped and flopped? My outlook is simple- namely this won't be a super-active and fun winter. Will I be wrong? I hope to god I am completely wrong. But I haven't been excited about much this fall.

[Jesse]

00z ensembles are better than I was expecting.

[Timmy]

Don't have a good feeling about this winter. Think we'll be lucky to have any significant storms in December.

Well if you don’t have a good feeling about this winter, the rest of us should throw in the towel. The first 48 hours of winter have been a huge let down.

[Requiem]

Well if you don’t have a good feeling about this winter, the rest of us should throw in the towel. The first 48 hours of winter have been a huge let down.

 

I never said "the rest of you should throw in the towel", did I? This is my opinion, if you want to make blanket statements then go ahead. This is simply deja-vu from last December, so perhaps we'll get a White Christmas this year again. It's in my nature to be pessimistic about the weather, and I have never once asked others to also be pessimistic.

[Requiem]

00z ensembles are better than I was expecting.

 

That's good to hear. Perhaps I'm being to harsh on the model runs.

[Timmy]

I never said "the rest of you should throw in the towel", did I? This is my opinion, if you want to make blanket statements then go ahead. This is simply deja-vu from last December, so perhaps we'll get a White Christmas this year again. It's in my nature to be pessimistic about the weather, and I have never once asked others to also be pessimistic.

Matt!!!

[Requiem]

Matt!!!

 

Who?

 

[Timmy]

Who?

 

When?

[Requiem]

When?

 

Where?

[Deweydog]

It's December 2nd.

[MossMan]

It's December 2nd.

But oh so close to the 3rd.

[Timmy]

It's December 2nd.

Only west is the Rockies!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

00z ensembles are better than I was expecting.

The FV3 was way better than the GFS, a lot of troughs with mountain snow.  The Canadian ensembles were also really wet and trough.  

[Requiem]

Weird that the GEM is staying with a "transition event" this Saturday. Probably won't happen. but it's there.

[Jesse]

When?

20 years ago?

[Deweydog]

But oh so close to the 3rd.

Quit cheating! Winter is short enough as it is.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Euro (and the FV3) seems to be pretty consistent run to run, unlike the GFS.  

[GHweatherChris]

Too bad the FV3 has proven to be Shiit, unfortunate it is our future for the American model eventually....

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Too bad the FV3 has proven to be Shiit, unfortunate it is our future for the American model eventually....

It has scored better than the GFS, though not as good as the Euro.  And it should continue to score even better than the GFS as they see the bias's and errors and corrects them.  But it probably won't surpass the Euro.  

[BLI snowman]

But oh so close to the 3rd.

 

It hasn't snowed on December 3rd in a really long time. Will be interesting to see if this year can continue the streak!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's December 2nd.

I was born 46 years ago today.

[Deweydog]

I was born 46 years ago today.

20 years ago you would have been 26.

 

Happy 26+20th, buddy!

[Bryant]

I was born 46 years ago today.

Happy Birthday!

[Perturbed Member]

12-10-08 had absolutely no impact weather of any kind. Early February 2017 was a Puget Sound event, very wet down here but a bit too warm for snow. Lots of chunky rain, though.

 

 

I remember Feb 2017 we had that front that had become fairly stationary and the PDX metro was just barely on the wrong side of it with areas to the north and west of us getting snow. There was a dusting on 26 as close by as North Plains which is technically part of the metro and there was plenty of snow in the coast range and even some on the coast. 

 

 

A few days earlier models had that front becoming stationary and extending from about Newport to the Dallas with PDX metro on the cold side and getting absolutely pummeled with heavy snow. I remember lots of crazy snowmaps like this one:

 

 

Obviously it didn't verify here and things shifted north but at least the folks up north got a nice event. I guess it was only fair after PDX got the Jan 10 2017 event and Seattle was left in the cold. The mood up north would have turned real ugly if PDX got two massive events like that and Puget Sound got nothing and I wouldn't have blamed them .

 

 

I've always been fascinated by snow setups like those where the airmass isn't all that impressive but persistent heavy precip turns the entire column isothermal and drops heavy snow. If I recall Eugene had such a snowstorm a couple of years ago. 

[Perturbed Member]

Weird that the GEM is staying with a "transition event" this Saturday. Probably won't happen. but it's there.

 

It is quite a pitiful front that is weakening and splitting as it approaches on the GEM so I guess it could be too pathetic to scour out the surface cold. 

 

GEM shows very light precip totals from it.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently clear and 28. Both GFS and FV3 aren't bad in the long range. Would drop the first accumulating snow of the year up here around the 14/15th. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall typical December fare. 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

Overall typical December fare. 

 

 

 

 

I bet that next week and probably beyond is going to be stormy with copious mountain snow.  

[Tyler Mode]

26 degrees for a low so far this morning.  If it isn't snowy, at least it's cold.