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March 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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57 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Haha.  I was looking just now.  I'm very torn.  I'm supposed to drive with my family to Breckenridge on either 3/11 or 3/12 depending on weather.  Our first hotel night is 3/12.  This would kind of be a disaster for us.  I'm worried we'd have to leave early, and then I'd miss the snow.  Or we'd leave late and miss a day of skiing.  Ugh . . . 

 

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I heard Breckenridge has had amazing winter.  Man, I feel ya bud, but either way you look at it, you'll see snow no matter what!  

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41 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Yup.  That's what my wife said too.  If we miss it in KC, I hope I'll see snow actually falling in CO.  The falling snow is the best part.  And honestly, if something like last night's Euro happens, that'd be perfect.  Still a lot of time to get the details right.

GEFS likes this storm.  I'm jealous that your going to Colorado I would vote leave early.  The Rockies during a snow storm are majestic!

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Well the Euro would pretty much crush everyone along I-80 from Nebraska to Ohio. I've seen this before; all major models showing something big and then as we get closer to the event it's a dud. Next weekend couldn't be any more worse for us in Nebraska; we have our boys state B-Ball tournament in Lincoln. I guess I'll get excited about a snowstorm for us when we are 12 hours out. 

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The 50-day cycle with this year's LRC would suggest that the data is right with a very active pattern starting next Wednesday and lasting a few weeks in the nation's midsection. IF you back to the second half of Jan. around 50days from Next Wednesday, you will see all the days we had storms. 

So, yes, it's going to be active next week, how far will the cold bleed and how strong will the disturbances/storms be?? The most recent runs of the EURO and GFS do suggest quite the cold pattern setting up mid next week. Should be some good set-ups for snow.

 

We'll know by March 25th who finished strong in the snow department. 

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17 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Well the Euro would pretty much crush everyone along I-80 from Nebraska to Ohio. I've seen this before; all major models showing something big and then as we get closer to the event it's a dud. Next weekend couldn't be any more worse for us in Nebraska; we have our boys state B-Ball tournament in Lincoln. I guess I'll get excited about a snowstorm for us when we are 12 hours out. 

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The amount of snowstorms/blizzards during the boys state basketball tournament over the years is lengthy.  Remember several where we drove in snowstorms or left early going or coming back to beat a storm.  I'm going down with my son after school on Thursday to watch the SemiFinals on Friday at Pinnacle Bank Arena. I'll be watching the weather very closely.  

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Pretty good write up by OAX today about the potential snow next week. 

The ensemble guidance is an interesting mix of confident and
unconfident regarding the potential for a significant winter
storm during the second half of next week. When you delve into the
guidance from the GEFS and EPS, the signal for a potentially
significant precipitation event in the Plains has remained
consistent. Model runs from both ensemble systems have been
advertising a precipitation event since February 27th.
Unfortunately both ensemble systems are really on the struggle bus
when it comes to the timing. These same timing disparities have
been evident in the deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS for
what they are worth at this time range. Hopefully these timing
issues will be resolved over the weekend as the trough out West
develops and becomes better resolved in the model initial
condition fields. With these factors in mind, forecaster
confidence in a widespread precipitation event in the Plains
during the second have of next week is on the higher end, while
confidence in the timing of that precipitation is low. For now our
forecast favors the model mean, and leans towards snow in eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa between next Thursday and Saturday.
Monitor the forecast closely going forward if your plans are
weather sensitive later next week.
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2 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Well the Euro would pretty much crush everyone along I-80 from Nebraska to Ohio. I've seen this before; all major models showing something big and then as we get closer to the event it's a dud. Next weekend couldn't be any more worse for us in Nebraska; we have our boys state B-Ball tournament in Lincoln. I guess I'll get excited about a snowstorm for us when we are 12 hours out. 

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This was a Signature storm and I'm sure it will be a Big time producer given the blocking and slow movement.  I see all the global ensembles are starting to come on board and even increasing the size of this system.  Cold Air will be prevalent and also the moisture.  It's all going to come down on track.  #MemorableMarch'23

12z EPS...

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On 2/26/2023 at 7:34 PM, Sparky said:

Some are saying that la Nina should end this spring, which I would welcome as it seems summer droughts are more likely here during la Nina. I'm tired of droughts in the summer or anytime for that matter, and I'm hoping this summer will have more storms. 

Here's something I stumbled into again today which does show Iowa La Nina summers quite a bit warmer and dryer than average. You can set parameters for your state, town, time of year, etc, etc. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=95&network=IACLIMATE&station=IA0000&month=6&months=3&lag=-1&h=none&year=2022&cmap=RdYlGn&_r=43&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

 Wednesday through Friday (Winter Storm System)... Forecast models came into better agreement today regarding the potential for accumulating snowfall next Wednesday through Thursday night. The 12Z run of the GFS is overdoing snowfall and I`m sure people will see those pictures starting to circulate across the Internet. However, it is concerning that both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble average are indicating significant moisture with this system given the below freezing temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF average is around 1 inch of QPF, while the 12Z GFS is a bit lower at 0.50-0.75 inches. Most ensemble solutions are currently giving our forecast area at least a few inches of snow and some are outright dumping warning level snow on us. This is still way to far out there to get overly excited, but will certainly need to keep an eye on this next storm system. Most of the snow with this system would be a broad swath of warm air advection snow over the surface cold layer, which usually brings heavier snow to a larger area if the vertical profile remains cold enough. Keep an eye on this one.

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We had the moderate risk here in eastern OK a few days ago and basically nothing happened. We had another moderate over the SE part of the state yesterday. I got about 3/4" of rain at my place but all the severe weather was to the south. I ended up having to work a 12 hour shift which is why severe weather isn't as fun as a nice snow lol. We had a few stations get over 4" of rain putting  a few stations above flood stage. 

Looks quiet for a few days but definitely a pretty wet pattern setting up starting Tuesday. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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While it's difficult to say how things will turn out for the small scale stuff, there is no question this is the best chance for some action in the southern Plains in quite some time. It's also very different from much of the weather we've seen all winter, so don't assume the same trends you've seen all winter will necessary apply.

This is perfect the way the Pacific Ridge merges with the SSW induced Greenland High and forces that upper level low south. It takes all the cold with it. This FINALLY puts a big area of cold high pressure east of the Rockies in Canada...which then starts to shove on south. 

I don't know if the storm track will be over me or further north (some ensembles show this), but some of us are going to get a lot of snow and its definitely going to be cold. Probably much colder than models say right now too. Lots of potential here! 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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15 hours ago, Tom said:

The post 8th storm is starting to show some signs of turning into to a possible slow moving Big Dog.  Just for fun...Best weenie map of the season...

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0z EPS...

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Don't put those shovels away @sumweatherdude @MIKEKC and even MAYBE our peeps down in Okie Land....Memorable March!

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I don’t trust any map even up to the event. Models have been atrocious. 

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Half Inch Snowstorm

Yesterday’s snowstorm dropped about a half inch here in MBY. According to the official snow fall report for Grand Rapids the snow fall amount for yesterday was 2.0” for the season Grand Rapids is now up to 88.8” At Lansing the snow fall amount there was a record 6.5” At Muskegon no snow fall was recorded. To the east at Detroit their snow fall amount was a record 6.2” it was a record 4.9” at Flint and also a reported record of 2.5” at Saginaw. Like I said not sure how much fell here at my house but there is only around a half inch on the ground. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/28 there was 0.10” of precipitation that led to that 2.0” of snow fall. There was no sunshine yesterday. The overnight low here was 24 but it has now gone up to 29. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 39/24 the record high of 66 was recorded in 1983 and the record low of -3 was set in 1948 and todays record snow fall amount is 8.0” set in 1900.

This past meteorological winter was only the 4th  time in recorded history at Grand Rapids that each of the 3 winter months the mean was 30 or better. The others are the winter of 1920/21, 1931/32 and 2001/02. This pas winter was the warmest at Grand Rapids since the winter of 2011/12 and will be the 3rd  warmest in this century. The warmest winter in this century so far in 2001/02 with a mean of 31.57. In 2011/12 the mean was 31.47 and the mean for this year is 30.87. The all time record warmest winter is the winter of 1931/32 with a mean of 33.9. This past met winter there was 58.8” of snow at Grand Rapids,  31.8” at Lansing and 40.5” at Muskegon Grand Rapids and Lansing were a little below average but Muskegon was much below average. There was 1” or more of snow on the ground at Grand Rapids on just 36 days. 58 is average. At Lansing there was 1’ or more on the ground on only 29 days, 56 is average and at Muskegon the number was 37 days with 58 the average there.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Half Inch Snowstorm

Yesterday’s snowstorm dropped about a half inch here in MBY. According to the official snow fall report for Grand Rapids the snow fall amount for yesterday was 2.0” for the season Grand Rapids is now up to 88.8” At Lansing the snow fall amount there was a record 6.5” At Muskegon no snow fall was recorded. To the east at Detroit their snow fall amount was a record 6.2” it was a record 4.9” at Flint and also a reported record of 2.5” at Saginaw. Like I said not sure how much fell here at my house but there is only around a half inch on the ground. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/28 there was 0.10” of precipitation that led to that 2.0” of snow fall. There was no sunshine yesterday. The overnight low here was 24 but it has now gone up to 29. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 39/24 the record high of 66 was recorded in 1983 and the record low of -3 was set in 1948 and todays record snow fall amount is 8.0” set in 1900.

This past meteorological winter was only the 4th  time in recorded history at Grand Rapids that each of the 3 winter months the mean was 30 or better. The others are the winter of 1920/21, 1931/32 and 2001/02. This pas winter was the warmest at Grand Rapids since the winter of 2011/12 and will be the 3rd  warmest in this century. The warmest winter in this century so far in 2001/02 with a mean of 31.57. In 2011/12 the mean was 31.47 and the mean for this year is 30.87. The all time record warmest winter is the winter of 1931/32 with a mean of 33.9. This past met winter there was 58.8” of snow at Grand Rapids,  31.8” at Lansing and 40.5” at Muskegon Grand Rapids and Lansing were a little below average but Muskegon was much below average. There was 1” or more of snow on the ground at Grand Rapids on just 36 days. 58 is average. At Lansing there was 1’ or more on the ground on only 29 days, 56 is average and at Muskegon the number was 37 days with 58 the average there.

Love the title "Half Inch Snowstorm"...boy, the "hav's and have nots" with this storm made a lot of ppl go crazy!  BTW, how is your recovery?  Fully yet?  Thanks for posting all the data that you do every single day.

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Nice and DEEP Upper MW Glacier....I'm really both intrigued and fascinated how this pattern has been soo dang relentless since NOV of last year.  How long till it melt is the question???  hmmm🤔

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Yet another round of Mod/Heavy snow is lining up for you guys up north... @james1976 @Madtown

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0z EPS continues to advertise the "look" of a powerful Bowling Ball...Could this become a Classic?  It appears that the signals continue to grow stronger as many of the variables are lining up just right to produce a Long Lasting, SLOW moving Coast-to-Coast March Winter Storm.

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2023 is off to a very wet start.  After last year I don't think anyone will complain.

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Yesterday, Kansas City picked up 0.60" of rain bringing us to 5.40" on the year which is good enough for the 9th wettest year on record through 3/3. A brief light shower will be possible this morning but otherwise we are not expecting to add to this total until Tuesday night.
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Got stuck under a mountain wave for ~ 30 minutes this AM and had multiple ~ 60mph gusts during that window. Has quieted substantially since then.

Weather station read 52mph but it’s obstructed by trees.

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On 3/1/2023 at 12:30 PM, Tom said:

Gosh, if I hadn’t of baked some chicken the other day, I’d be soo grilling right now out on the deck!  

Oh heck Tom. We grill in the snow in Texas.   Keep the Bar B goin!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Timmy Supercell Did you get hit with strong winds yesterday from non-storms?  I saw Eddyville recorded 82mph wind gusts yesterday!  

Yes I think I forgot to post on this side of the forum last night.. Ashland regional airport didn't quite hit severe winds, but it was strong enough to cause a couple bumps around 10pm at my place. I had no internet connection for around 90 minutes. 

Overall I don't think the Enhanced verified but the wind reports sure were scattered. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The new snow that fell yesterday is now mostly gone. There is still some in the shade and the old snow/ice areas are still there. There is still that left over snow/ice in the woods here but outside of the woods there is mostly bare ground. At the current time it is 43 here with nice sunshine.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

BTW, how is your recovery?  Fully yet?

I am mostly "recovered" I have done a few walks and with the sun out will do one today. I still have what is now a slight cough that comes and goes but is much better than it was. My wife on the other while she feel better still has a cough that is worse at night.

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2 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I am mostly "recovered" I have done a few walks and with the sun out will do one today. I still have what is now a slight cough that comes and goes but is much better than it was. My wife on the other while she feel better still has a cough that is worse at night.

I Hope that both of you recover quickly…thanks for the update.

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17 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

No wonder the GFS is trending away from any big snow here next week and cutting the system now.

SER blossoming AGAIN.

Yep. Models have already locked onto what we have seen all winter. Just more of the same.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.3" (as of 2/17/24)

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With a seasonal snow fall total now at 88.8" the question is now can Grand Rapids reach 100" this winter season. The next 3 weeks will tell. Daytime snow events will become harder to have now. But we sure can still get nighttime snow events yet and that can be the case up to the 1st half of April.

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