January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[High Desert Mat!]

The cold air is becoming more entrenched than i expected this week. So much for a high in the upper 40's here today. Hit a high of 39.6 and now down to 37.9

Agreed. I'm already down to 24.9 after a high of 35.

[van city]

[bainbridgekid]

Had some seriously thick frost this morning and my car was more iced up than it's been all year.

 

Fun to have that kind of icy landscape sandwiched between two sunny mild days in the 50's.

[Front Ranger]

Wow. Some fairly putrid 18Z runs and ensembles.

 

The FV3 was way more amplified with the GOA ridge days 8-10. So there's that.

 

Would probably be a pretty chilly pattern at the surface for you guys.

[Deweydog]

I like the sub-462dm thicknesses on the fancy/inaccurate new GFS.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[MossMan]

The FV3 was way more amplified with the GOA ridge days 8-10. So there's that.

 

Would probably be a pretty chilly pattern at the surface for you guys.

We want this! From Eugene to beyond the Canadian border!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It definitely feels like Winter here!(Near west Gresham)

 

@3:55 PM It is 38.2, Dewpoint 25, East wind 35-45mph. Icy cold wind! The Columbia Basin cold pool is fairly healthy and low level cold air mass over the Gorge has intensified. Three Corner Rock is at 22, 6 F colder than this time yesterday. Locations east of I-205 are 3-4 F colder as well.

 

Columbia Basin cold pool

As of 3:30 PM

 

24 hours ago

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 29 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 47 minutes

Yakima didn't make it above freezing again today.

[Front Ranger]

We want this! From Eugene to beyond the Canadian border!

 

Downed powerlines?

[BLI snowman]

We had a January day today that didn't feel like mid April! Big time stuff!!!

[Jesse]

We had a January day today that didn't feel like mid April! Big time stuff!!!

 

The sub-freezing high at Yakima seems pretty dang unusual for this late.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good news from Joe Bastardi. He thinks this upcoming cold pattern will be coast to coast and not just for the East Coast.

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

 

CFSV2 run from 06z is now echoing our ideas. This is not just eastern cold as in other years, 78 was coast to coast centered in the heartland, I think this has a shot at that

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1084943048520413184

[Deweydog]

The weather gave me cancer.

[Phil]

IMG_20190114_171818.jpg IMG_20190114_171824.jpg IMG_20190114_171829.jpg IMG_20190114_171833.jpg

That mid-February pattern would be a very snowy one for a very significant swath of the country. Perhaps we can set a new monthly snowcover record since parts of the west-central US will be included in the action this time, instead of just the east.

[Front Ranger]

For those that are curious how the various models have performed over the past month...

 

Here are the geopotential height correlation scores for the PNA, the most relevant and "local" region available.

 

Day 3

 

Euro: .97

FV3: .96

GFS: .95

CMC: .94

 

Day 5

 

Euro: .88

FV3: .82

CMC: .81

GFS: .80

 

 

Day 8

 

Euro: .59

GFS: .50

CMC: .50

FV3: .48

 

Day 10

 

Euro: .36

FV3: .34

GFS: .30

CMC: .30

 

To sum it up:

 

1. All models are very close at day 3

2. The FV3 has performed slightly better than the GFS within 5 days

3. The Euro has been easily better than the other models for day 8

4. All model accuracy falls significantly between days 5 and 8

5. By day 10, all model verification is pretty poor

6. The Euro, not surprisingly, has performed the best throughout the forecast period

 

All analysis can be found here: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

[Deweydog]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We want this! From Eugene to beyond the Canadian border!

I second that!

[Front Ranger]

So shorter time frame correlates to increased accuracy.

 

Correct! But more importantly, the Euro still sits on its throne, the FV3 has continued to be a slight improvement compared to the old GFS (at least with the overall pattern - precip is still apparently a major problem sometimes), and the GFS and CMC have been basically dead even.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Had some seriously thick frost this morning and my car was more iced up than it's been all year.

 

Fun to have that kind of icy landscape sandwiched between two sunny mild days in the 50's.

If I am not shoveling frost, then it does not count. BRING IT!!

[ShawniganLake]

Shawnigan Lake running +4.4F for January so far.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Good news from Joe Bastardi. He thinks this upcoming cold pattern will be coast to coast and not just for the East Coast

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

 

CFSV2 run from 06z is now echoing our ideas. This is not just eastern cold as in other years, 78 was coast to coast centered in the heartland, I think this has a shot at that

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1084943048520413184

How did the PNW do in 78?

 

Sometimes I think his definition of Coast to Coast is Massachusetts to the Dakotas.

[Jesse]

37 degrees with east wind rattling the house. At least it feels like winter!

[Esquimalt]

How did the PNW do in 78?

 

Sometimes I think his definition of Coast to Coast is Massachusetts to the Dakotas.

January was pretty good. One great snow event here in early february and then the rest of february and march weren't the greatest.

[Deweydog]

Correct! But more importantly, the Euro still sits on its throne, the FV3 has continued to be a slight improvement compared to the old GFS (at least with the overall pattern - precip is still apparently a major problem sometimes), and the GFS and CMC have been basically dead even.

There’s a reason Arctic Blast calls it the king!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

How did the PNW do in 78?

 

Sometimes I think his definition of Coast to Coast is Massachusetts to the Dakotas.

 

Zilch in the south valley that Jan other than one sub-freezing high on the 2nd. Not a good analog for here. 

[ShawniganLake]

How did the PNW do in 78?

 

Sometimes I think his definition of Coast to Coast is Massachusetts to the Dakotas.

Is he talking about January 78 or the winter of 78-79?

 

78-79 was mostly cold and dry up here. Big arctic outbreak around New Years.

[Requiem]

The wind is roaring up here still. Models don't seem to handle East Wind well at all.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Is he talking about January 78 or the winter of 78-79?

 

78-79 was mostly cold and dry up here. Big arctic outbreak around New Years.

Just checked. January 1978, and it lasted a couple of months.

 

I also checked Seattle. They torched both in January and February. Only one day did the morning low get to 32, and that was January 1st.

[Front Ranger]

There’s a reason Arctic Blast calls it the king!

 

There's also a reason everyone calls you Mr. Above It All!

[Front Ranger]

How did the PNW do in 78?

 

Sometimes I think his definition of Coast to Coast is Massachusetts to the Dakotas.

 

Colorado is "the west coast" to many east coasters. I wish I was joking.  <_>

[MossMan]

Downed powerlines?

Absolutely!!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Colorado is "the west coast" to many east coasters. I wish I was joking. <_>

I believe it. When they say "out west", they mean what we would call the Mid West. If this is a 1978 repeat, it wont be cold out here.

[Blizzard777]

Beautiful morning to fly out of Seattle and fascinating how fog just stops above Hoodsport along the canal

[Blizzard777]

48/28

Currently 35*

[Jesse]

Beautiful morning to fly out of Seattle and fascinating how fog just stops above Hoodsport along the canal

Great shots. You can make out Lake Cushman in the top one as well, right below the wing.

[Phil]

Oh my..now that’s a block!

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The wind is roaring up here still. Models don't seem to handle East Wind well at all.

They never seem to especially when your dealing with low level cold pools in the Columbia River Basin.

[Requiem]

They never seem to especially when your dealing with low level cold pools in the Columbia River Basin.

 

True. Today, driving back from Beaverton the wind was buffeting the car much more than I've seen in a while. Near Raleigh Hills it was absolutely howling.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

How did the PNW do in 78?

 

Sometimes I think his definition of Coast to Coast is Massachusetts to the Dakotas.

Now that would be funny.

 

I think what he was trying to emphasize was that this isn't just going to be an East Coast event and that everybody in the CONUS will have a chance to get in on the Arctic air.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Oh my..now that’s a block!

 

I saw this posted on Twitter. The Met who posted it said "This is generally when you start referencing the record books lol."

 

That just shows us the magnitude of what this upcoming pattern can bring.