January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Dave]

The Eugene area definitely lost a few palms when it dropped to -10 a few years ago (was not that cold in most of the town though). I also saw a few that just barely hung on and are pretty much an eyesore now. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the cold air is held up in customs at hour 228.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the cold air is held up in customs at hour 228.

 

 

Its waiting for midnight on the night of 1/31 as the calendar turns to February.

 

It would be pretty funny if my prediction ends up being right down to the hour... from over 3 weeks out.   

[Requiem]

Well, that's a weird run

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like the Puget Sound gets some potential snow during the time frame TT predicted.

[TT-SEA]

4 a.m. on February 1st.   

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z isn't as good. World's better than the 12z though. It gets close. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Well, that's a weird run

Why. Looks pretty realistic to me.

[Front Ranger]

Two runs in a row with the large-scale features you want in place, within 8 days.

 

CMC is not on board as it overamplifies the ridge and it quickly gets undercut. But at least all models are back to showing big-time blocking.

[Esquimalt]

Nice overrunning event round here.

[GHweatherChris]

Its waiting for midnight on the night of 1/31 as the calendar turns to February.

 

It would be pretty funny if my prediction ends up being right down to the hour... from over 3 weeks out.

Guess...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah close...

[TT-SEA]

Guess...

Educated guess.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Nice overrunning event round here.

 

Also, perhaps some sort of convergence event going into it. I'd be happy with an event like that.

[Esquimalt]

[Requiem]

Ensembles so far are crap. We haven’t entered tim’s Legendary period yet thou so nothing is set in stone

 

Pretty big step backwards....

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 a.m. on February 1st.

 

00z isn't as good. World's better than the 12z though. It gets close.

Two runs in a row with the large-scale features you want in place, within 8 days.

 

CMC is not on board as it overamplifies the ridge and it quickly gets undercut. But at least all models are back to showing big-time blocking.

Yeah, the 00z GFS gets real close to delivering the goods. Whenever you see good blocking you have lots of potential. Very cold Arctic air just slides to the East of us on day 11.

 

[Deweydog]

We’re f*cked.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've seen worse ensembles. 

[Timmy]

I've seen worse ensembles.

I’ve seen better

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 is a total disaster. This is an inevitable letdown from the 18z.

[GHweatherChris]

Educated guess.

Answer my earlier question.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ON TO THE 06Z!!!!

[ShawniganLake]

ON TO THE 06Z!!!!

Skip the euro tonight. It’s probably for the best.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s amazing how quickly blocking can break down once it relocates to a favourable position.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I think we all know how this movie ends.

[Jbolin]

I think we all know how this movie ends.

Yep, "she" runs upstairs instead of out the front door.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Model ride 101.

[GHweatherChris]

It’s amazing how quickly blocking can break down once it relocates to a favourable position.

No blocking relocated to a favorable position though...

[ShawniganLake]

No blocking relocated to a favorable position though...

Great point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Skip the euro tonight. It’s probably for the best.

Best not to focus on bad news.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

On a side note, looks like some vigorous rainfall tomorrow:

 

[MossMan]

Come on Tim’s gut...you can make this blast happen!

 

Currently 37 and mostly cloudy.

[MossMan]

Yeah it looks like Tim’s gut rejected the ensembles and violently exited through his lower intestines.

[TT-SEA]

Well... the 00Z ECMWF sucks. Not even close really.

[MossMan]

It’s over.

[Requiem]

Was a nice little tease. I still have hope, though.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It’s over.

Earlier today you said it's over. Then after a good run you said "Book it". Now you say "Its over". All in 12 hours. Are you really that much of a model rider, in which case that is sad because you have been around long enough to know better, or so you just like to joke around? Just curious.

[Gradient Keeper]

That was fun!

 

I just like that the coming pattern change appears to be within Day 5-6 with the major players in place. There really is no point focusing on details Day 7+ they're going to change. Whether or not that's favors us or not we're not going to know that until Wednesday 00z or Thursday 12z. Still low confidence on this occurring and I wonder if the EURO is showing its tendencies of overdoing cut-off lows/energy. Hmmm.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 10 minutes. I wonder how different that run will be.