Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[gabel23]

All the models can take that donut slot and shove it. My area just keeps getting the shaft from these storms, one of these times I have to get lucky you would think! I’ve been missed in every direction with the past three storms; so I guess getting missed to the north and south with one system would make sense.......

[hlcater]

FWIW: The 3km NAM agrees with the 12km.

[jaster220]

Cali is slightly active tonight with our system saying hello

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow. The NAM really unloads on us eastern Nebraska folks! .60 QPF at a nice temperature range to give us 7-9 inches.

[jaster220]

Wow. KBUF wastes zero time in hoisting. That's getting out ahead of it for ya

 

927 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Light snow will begin as early as  Saturday morning. Snow will become heavy late Saturday afternoon  and Saturday night and continue into Sunday morning. Snow will  then transition to lake effect Sunday afternoon and continue  through Monday. At this time, greater than 7 inches of snow is  possible. Gusty winds and arctic air will also produce  significant blowing and drifting snow and wind chills well  below zero.* WHERE...All of western and north central New York.* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road  conditions. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce  visibility.

[Hawkeye]

The NAM is fantastic.  However, I still need to see other models join it.  It's a bad idea to jump on a couple wet nam runs just because they are good for my yard.  The 3k nam shows a very heavy band lifting from southern Iowa up through Cedar Rapids.  I don't buy it.

[Grizzcoat]

Cali is slightly active tonight with our system saying hello

 

Screenshot_2019-01-16 San Francisco Bay Area, CA.png

Not to be picky- but I don't think that is the system for us on the 18-19th.  From DMX AFD- Hazardous Snowfall Potential...

Synopsis:  Issued at 355 PM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

Per 19z Wed GOES-R water vapor imagery, upper low slated to

impact the Midwest over the weekend traced back to Pacific Ocean

approximately 1300 miles west of the Washington coastline. This

represents around a 600 mile southeastward propagation in the past

24 hours... aka motion of around 25 mph. By this time tomorrow,

this system should be nearing the west coast of the CONUS,

implying acceleration to around 50 mph. By Friday, storm motion

drops back to around 25 mph as it makes it to the CONUS... moral

of the story is this is shaping up to be a fast-moving system...

versus one that will linger for 24+ hours.

[Niko]

Might be looking at LES IMBY from Port Huron per my local weatherman. I don't see that happen too often.

[Grizzcoat]

RDPS FWIW-

[jaster220]

Not to be picky- but I don't think that is the system for us on the 18-19th.  From DMX AFD- Hazardous Snowfall Potential...

Synopsis:  Issued at 355 PM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

Per 19z Wed GOES-R water vapor imagery, upper low slated to

impact the Midwest over the weekend traced back to Pacific Ocean

approximately 1300 miles west of the Washington coastline. This

represents around a 600 mile southeastward propagation in the past

24 hours... aka motion of around 25 mph. By this time tomorrow,

this system should be nearing the west coast of the CONUS,

implying acceleration to around 50 mph. By Friday, storm motion

drops back to around 25 mph as it makes it to the CONUS... moral

of the story is this is shaping up to be a fast-moving system...

versus one that will linger for 24+ hours.

 

I think it's a bit confusing cuz there's actually two waves. The N wave hits the coast first, the S wave hits later. Not sure if they're both ULL's or not tho.

[Hawkeye]

Des Moines NWS mentioned in their afternoon discussion that the northern Iowa band of snow should have pretty high ratios.

[jaster220]

Unless we get back to the S Low amping up, this will be nothing more than a quick wave over here. Dumps it's load in IA while the S wave stays south. Could easily see myself surrounded by Watches and my office be like "storm? what storm??"

 

Friday evening here:

 

[jaster220]

More watches going up in SD now..

[Hawkeye]

00z ICON.... still has the big moat.

 

[Niko]

I feel confident now that this piece of energy entering land from the Pacific (if it has entered already), models will be displaying a different forecast. Already, we are seeing North trends.

[hlcater]

Craig’s 12-18” map is literally all over Facebook to the point where one of my parents asked me about it. Really well done there Craig. Viral social media map that has an approximately 0% chance of verifying. It freaks people out for no reason.

[Grizzcoat]

^  +100

[jaster220]

Craig’s 12-18” map is literally all over Facebook to the point where one of my parents asked me about it. Really well done there Craig. Viral social media map that has an approximately 0% chance of verifying. It freaks people out for no reason.

 

Apparently hype is Craig's middle name

[jaster220]

Again, just using this set-up as a "test case"

 

Interesting to see that our fore-running system is being prog'd much further north than 36 hrs ago when those GFS runs had it in KY/OH border. Ofc we'll need to see if these maps verify or not.

 

 

[Clinton]

Apparently hype is Craig's middle name

You aint gots to lie Craig!  Sorry I had to say it just once.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS appears to be holding serve from 18Z

[jaster220]

Starts off in a very similar location that models are placing the main event just for reference

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Surface12hr/usa_ICast.gif

[NH4NU]

Placement is identical to 18z GFS at 33hrs

[bud2380]

GFS still has the heaviest band over northern Iowa.  Not nearly as strong as the NAM in central and southern IA

[GDR]

My cousin just said he seen a model showing 18 inches so that must be Craig’s site.

[Grizzcoat]

slight shift S of the 6" band.

[jaster220]

Now, just come NE baby!

 

[hlcater]

Apparently hype is Craig's middle name

 

This is quite rude but after this display, it's probably warranted. Craig has no business running a social media weather page based on his performance on here. Neither do I, but I don't have a social media page for that reason. The "Snow Day" page is detrimental to actively and accurately warning the public of the storm's potential impacts. He can't provide the type of analysis that would be beneficial and compliment the work of the NWS/local media so in all honesty, he should just not have a facebook page at all. 

[jaster220]

GFS a few hrs slower with snow arrival here, but seems to be aligned and ready to come further north and maybe keep snow going longer..

[bud2380]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011700/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Grizzcoat]

CMC appears further S with QPF-

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is why I don't buy the NAM.

[Grizzcoat]

[Iowawx]

The GFS is why I don't buy the NAM.

 

The GFS still gives CR 6 inches so I think trends are looking good. 

[Clinton]

gem_asnow_ncus_12.png

This is a true test for the LRC.  The GEM has been consistent the last few days and fits like a glove when you look at this system in the last cycle (Dec 5th).

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian is the only model that shows the initial band of snow streaking through central Iowa rather than northern Iowa.

[GDR]

The GFS is why I don't buy the NAM.

the euro is why I don’t buy the gfs. Let’s see what the king has to say!

[Iowawx]

This is looking good here overall. I do wish however that this system would slow down a bit because it looks like the snow mostly occurs after sunset and ends by mid-morning Saturday. 

[Hawkeye]

00z FV3.... not much change

 

[OKwx2k4]

Even at reduced amounts over the last few runs, the next 84 hours is (will be) still a ton of snow cover CONUS-wide. Neat to see. Even if I miss out again.