Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[jcwxguy]

18z euro is south, almost too far south for omaha

[dubuque473]

Just from what local Mets Swails and Schnack said tonight I am hoping for 3”. They both have around 3-6” however.

[Money]

Can you post WI view through hr 54?

[hlcater]

wow that 18z Euro is really something...

[snowstorm83]

OAX said on Facebook that they don't make major model changes based on 18z runs, which is fair. There seems to be a trend, but I wouldn't want them to jump the gun yet just to have to retract it later. 

[GDR]

Say what??

[jcwxguy]

Can you post WI view through hr 54?

sure

[Hawkeye]

Whoa, that's a big deal to put Cedar Rapids firmly in a heavy band.  Even prior south-outlier runs had CR right on/inside the rain/snow line.  This has me excited for the 00z runs.

[gimmesnow]

I am in the danger zone. Sometimes it's 7 inches sometimes it's "wintry mix". Can't believe it's this close to happening and there's so much variation.

[Tom]

RPM model painting 1-3” for the N/NW burbs...all I need is a 25-50 mi shift S for a decent snow. I would still take a quick front end thump of snow b4 the rain/mix scenario. It’ll be enough to keep the snow pack at about 6”.

[hlcater]

RPM model painting 1-3” for the N/NW burbs...all I need is a 25-50 mi shift S for a decent snow. I would still take a quick front end thump of snow b4 the rain/mix scenario. It’ll be enough to keep the snow pack at about 6”.

 

What does it have farther west?

[Tom]

What does it have farther west?

Mostly, if not, all snow for E IA.

[WBadgersW]

I am in the danger zone. Sometimes it's 7 inches sometimes it's "wintry mix". Can't believe it's this close to happening and there's so much variation.

At least things may be trending in the right direction. Where in SE WI are you again?

[Tony]

RPM model painting 1-3” for the N/NW burbs...all I need is a 25-50 mi shift S for a decent snow. I would still take a quick front end thump of snow b4 the rain/mix scenario. It’ll be enough to keep the snow pack at about 6”.

I think 88 will prob be the cutoff for mostly snow north and mix south

[gimmesnow]

At least things may be trending in the right direction. Where in SE WI are you again?

 

Lake Geneva area

[Money]

sure

Thanks

 

10:1 ratio also so probably looking at 8-10+

[stratosjeff]

I live in Rockford,Il. This is going to be a close one.

[Stormhunter87]

Hrrr pretty spot on so far. Don't like the dry air at the end though.

[Minny_Weather]

Lol okay storm you can quit shifting South now that's good enough.

[gosaints]

Ya the dry air is concerning on the hrr. Will be interesting to see if the 0z models take a step back

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR slashes the highest totals in the band by about half. Also if you're not in the thin band, lol too bad so sad.

[gosaints]

NAM looking turdier early

[St Paul Storm]

Might not see a flake here based on the 0z NAM. My call of 0.5” is gonna bust way too high. Lol.

 

Unbelievable shift south.

[bud2380]

The NAM has looked weird every single run to me.  The HRRR is showing over 1" per hour rates for Cedar Rapids tomorrow around 9pm. 

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is way South as well.

[gosaints]

The NAM has looked weird every single run to me. The HRRR is showing over 1" per hour rates for Cedar Rapids tomorrow around 9pm.

its been all over. Could be right but it will be out of luck

[Hawkeye]

Check out the large structural change of this system from 12z to 00z on the NAM.  The main energy center shifts way south.

 

[NH4NU]

Check out the large structural change of this system from 12z to 00z on the NAM.  The main energy center shifts way south.

 

namconus_z500_vort_us_fh20_trend.gif

 

Identified by no other than........EURO

[Grizzcoat]

Nam better than you think -- esp for OMA *** edit *** and DSM and NE IA into S.WI

[Iowawx]

I wouldn’t be surprised if DVN issues winter storm warning for CR.

[bud2380]

00z HRRR

 

[Hawkeye]

Wow, the surface low now starts the cut from Oklahoma, so passes well southeast of CR.  This matches up with the more sw-ne 18z euro snow map.

[Hawkeye]

I wouldn’t be surprised if DVN issues winter storm warning for CR.

 

And to think many of us in the CR/IC area thought we were out of the good snow and we were just hoping for no rain.

[NH4NU]

Whoa. 00z NAM. 9.7" for Omaha through 36hrs

[gosaints]

Omadome

[Iowawx]

Is it possible to tell now based on the SLP’s current location if it is indeed going south like models have been showing?

 

These trends are making me really excited about what’s coming by daybreak.

[gosaints]

Is it possible to tell now based on the SLP’s current location if it is indeed going south like models have been showing?

 

These trends are making me really excited about what’s coming by daybreak.

not really but the rest of the model suite should tell you. I wouldn't bet against the euro

[BMT]

Well, Dvn thought all along it would happen. Models Just waited until the last minute...

[Grizzcoat]

Still snowing NE IA into much of WI-

[jcwxguy]

00z nam