February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Requiem]

12Z ECMWF is way north with the snow on Monday morning compared to the 00Z run.    Its only Thursday... I doubt the models lock in on this event until Saturday night or Sunday morning.  

 

 

00Z run:

 

 

12Z run:

 

More in line with the GFS.

[wxmet]

I hope you are right.

Just because the setup isn’t the same doesn’t mean the outcome can not be similar. It just really depends on how far south the trough drops and how much it digs but there’s no southern stream component so less potential for amplification.

[TT-SEA]

Monday through 10 a.m.

 

The 00Z run tonight will have this up over the Seattle area... I am confident this will happen.

 

00Z run:

 

 

12Z run:

 

[Timmy]

Euro drops a foot on pdx

[TT-SEA]

Total snow for 24-hour period ending Monday at 4 p.m.

 

Enjoy this while you can Portland folks... the next run will be farther north.     This is exactly what happened at 4 days out last week.   First it was south of Portland... then it was shown to hit Portland... and it ended up hitting Seattle.

 

 

 

For reference... here was the same period on the 00Z run last night.    How anyone can deny the northward trend is beyond me.

 

[Requiem]

Monday through 10 a.m.

 

The 00Z run tonight will have this up over the Seattle area... I am confident this will happen.

 

00Z run:

 

 

12Z run:

 

Alright, maybe Seattle will get slammed like you are saying. Maybe you guys will be once again blessed by another foot of snow, who knows? But I’m not giving up hope yet. Especially since this seems to be a much more Gorge-involved storm. You repeating the same thing every few posts doesn’t change anything.

[Gummy]

Nice for PDX looks like they will get a solid snowfall out of this one!

[Requiem]

Nice for PDX looks like they will get a solid snowfall out of this one!

I sure hope so, but I’m not buying it yet. Not after last week. But I’m hopeful!

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow for 24-hour period ending Monday at 4 p.m.

 

Enjoy this while you can Portland folks... the next run will be farther north. This is exactly what happened at 4 days out last week. First it was south of Portland... then it was shown to hit Portland... and it ended up hitting Seattle.

 

I want that right over Pierce County on the 00z run on Saturday. Don’t want it going to far north.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hopefully Portland gets their major snowfall event and Seattle area can get a couple inches and make everyone happy

[Requiem]

I want that right over Pierce County. Don’t want it going to far north.

I want it right where it is, or right over Eugene.

[Jesse]

Awful run. We’re so f*cked.

[TT-SEA]

Hard to believe that everyone has forgotten what happened last week already.  

 

Seattle is in the sweet spot at 4 days out given the clear model trends.

[Requiem]

Hard to believe that everyone has forgotten what happened last week already.  

 

Seattle is in the sweet spot at 4 days out given the clear model trends.

We get it, okay. Portland’s going to get screwed again, we totally understand your message. More snow for you guys.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF still showing a huge warm up after this event... this is only a week out now.  

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Nobody panic yet, Remember that models change quick, forecasts are never 100% accurate especially 72-108hrs out. Just watching forecast models for years teaches you not too panic too much until 24-48hrs out.

[TT-SEA]

We get it, okay. Portland’s going to get screwed again, we totally understand your message. More snow for you guys.

 

 

I am more frustrated than you.    I just know where this is going.    People can deny it for another 12 hours... but I think its going to keep trending north.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 12z ensembles aren’t as bad as I was lead to believe. The mean is essentially unchanged the last several runs, and the warm up looks slower if anything. There is definitely a lot of spread even in the short to mid term, though.

 

8CD130D4-F2D5-47FB-BE1E-58779AAD594D.png

BETTING ON GREEN!   

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows 60 in Eugene and close to 50 in Seattle by Wednesday... but only around 40 in Portland with the snow cover projected on this run.     

[BLI snowman]

it will never sno again south of the tumwater walmart and north bend schools will be in session until september

[Perturbed Member]

The FV3 and the euro both showing a similar thing. 

 

Looking a bit scary for here. Seattle round 2?

 

18z

 

00z

 

06z

 

 

12z

[ShawniganLake]

ECMWF still showing a huge warm up after this event... this is only a week out now.

 

It's definitely on it's own with this in day 7 at this point.

[TT-SEA]

It's definitely on it's own with this in day 7 at this point.

 

 

And actually trending more ridgy in that period over the last few runs.

[TT-SEA]

it will never sno again south of the tumwater walmart and north bend schools will be in session until september

 

 

Definitely feels like schools will be closed for a couple more days here.    The next ECMWF run is going to shows 12+ inches up here on Monday.   Its the next step in the northward trend.   Then it will lock in.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I want Portland to score but this feels just like the last evolution of the storm just insane.

[Omegaraptor]

CFS shows cold anomalies persisting throughout March.

 

We get to suffer through another month of disappointment!

[TT-SEA]

I want Portland to score but this feels just like the last evolution of the storm just insane.

 

Absolutely correct.   I think some people are just in denial down south.    I want to be in denial... but I can't ignore the obvious trends and similarities to last week.  

[FroYoBro]

Absolutely correct.   I think some people are just in denial down south.    I want to be in denial... but I can't ignore the obvious trends and similarities to last week.  

 

Southerners are really dummies. 

[OysterPrintout]

guys Tim thinks it's gonna go north

[Weiner Warrior]

New forecast is saying Portland won't have snow again until 2021. It's a ways out but models are in agreement. Going to have to wait another two years.

[Omegaraptor]

Yippee, more low 40s garbage for Portland!

 

Does anyone actually like temps in the low 40s? Not cold enough to snow, not warm enough to actually feel pleasant, just a constant infuriating limbo.

[ShawniganLake]

guys Tim thinks it's gonna go north

He's trying to play mind games with the storm in an attempt to convince it to stay away from North bend.

 

Maybe it'll go all the way to southern BC. Vancouver and Abbotsford are still below average for seasonal snowfall.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

As long as the S Valley doesn’t have a horrific 1996-2003 snow drought it would be nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Absolutely correct.   I think some people are just in denial down south.    I want to be in denial... but I can't ignore the obvious trends and similarities to last week.  

 

Yeah fun snow maps on the 12z EURO, but major bad news for people in NW Oregon. This will be another Seattle area event. 

[TT-SEA]

He's trying to play mind games with the storm in an attempt to convince it to stay away from North bend.

 

Maybe it'll go all the way to southern BC. Vancouver and Abbotsford are still below average for seasonal snowfall.

Not playing mind games. Factoring in the obvious trends. No way to logically ignore that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim is also in hardcore troll mode. To the point he will totally ignore any run with good news.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE up to 41 at 11am. I think it could be a close call with 50 today. EURO guidance only says 45, but SLE has a way of overachieving on highs.

 

EURO says EUG is 60 next Wednesday.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’ve just gotta wait and see, at the moment it is trending north but nobody is ruled out at this point for snowfall. The truth is though that chances are increasing in the Puget Sound area a bit, let’s just hope we finally can get a good snow event for both metro areas!

[Bryant]

[TT-SEA]

Tim is also in hardcore troll mode. To the point he will totally ignore any run with good news.

 

 

The trend is everything at this point.    There is no trolling here... its just logical.

 

And I am always accused of focusing on things I like... which is the opposite of ignoring good news.   

 

Side note... you seem to fit that description more than me.