February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

"Anyone" must mean only those in and around PDX. Those up north do indeed like the trends

 

I guess you like 2 hours of snow followed by 50 degree rain? The problem is a more northern solution like this leads to a RAPID warm up. The southern lows keep the whole region cool through the end of the month, which could equal continued snow chances for everyone. So you would take the $1 bill today instead of waiting for the $10,000 payoff in a week?

 

[Perturbed Member]

Yikes! Glad you guys got your northern trend. Enjoy the rain!

 

 

 

Even the most aggressive EPS members didn't have anything quite this ridiculous. This thing is either brilliant or totally out to lunch. 

[Meatyorologist]

Yikes! Glad you guys got your northern trend. Enjoy the rain!

 

The ICON is finicky with both low placement and outflow temperatures. Has a hard time with both.

[MikeInEverett]

Yikes! Glad you guys got your northern trend. Enjoy the rain!

You're really going at it with the WA posters tonight!

[Bryant]

I guess you like 2 hours of snow followed by 50 degree rain? The problem is a more northern solution like this leads to a RAPID warm up. The southern lows keep the whole region cool through the end of the month, which could equal continued snow chances for everyone. So you would take the $1 bill today instead of waiting for the $10,000 payoff in a week?

 

Warm up is bound to happen eventually, might as well get it over with!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You're really going at it with the WA posters tonight!

 

I suppose, but really just annoyed by the shortsightedness. People will trade one week of continued historic cold, which likely would contain more snow chances, for the opportunity to get an inch of slush that melts in an hour. As I also said, it doesn't really matter what any of us want. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm up is bound to happen eventually, might as well get it over with!

 

That is true. People like Jesse and I just have fantasies about this just going on forever like 2011. But I guess we eventually paid the price in September 2011 .

[Perturbed Member]

The total lack of respect from some of our Washington posters for southern people like Washington Co residents and TWL is disappointing. But I guess in the end most of us who spend hours a day looking at weather models and posting on this forum are probably a bit socially delayed, my wife tells me I am , and our empathy or lack thereof has nothing to do with what will actually happen, so I guess there is no sense in worrying about it.

 

Indeed, no point getting too worked up over what the guys up north want or don't want. It of course does nothing to change the likelihood of us scoring. However, I appreciate your support of us lowly low elevation bottom feeders of WA county, Eugene and other snow poverty stricken areas.  Every little bit helps. 

[ewnichols25]

Warm up is bound to happen eventually, might as well get it over with!

downvote

[snow_wizard]

I don't know. I'm probably in the minority here (for WA posters) but I'm hoping this thing stays south. Mainly to let Portlanders/Oregonian's have their fair share of this already incredible month but also because of more practical reasons. Work, school, etc. Everything stops when you get 2ft of snow. Hell, Carnation didn't plow the main roads (the whole TWO of them) until 5 days after the main event and our hill took 3 tractors, 2 pickups, and 4 days to clear. While undoubtedly awesome, also a tad inconvenient.

 

Not trying to sound whiny or ungrateful with the above - I love snow just as much as the next guy and wouldn't trade what happened up here for anything. But I don't mind sharing, especially when it looks like wherever this band sets up will get a pretty nice dumping. 1-2 inches? I'd take it. 8-14? Enjoy it Portland!

 

I agree with you that I want Portland to score.  I didn't get the monumental snow blast like you did (although I did well on the first two events) so I could still use another 4 to 6 inches.  Mainly I want to see an exclamation point put on this month.  We need some sharp cold or a decent snow at the end to round it out.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z NAVGEM hasn't updated yet on tropicaltidbits but I found it on another website. System takes a southern track. Here's the precipitation maps hours 96 and 108.

 

[Brennan]

What’s with people rooting for others to get more snow because they’ve had enough? #snocialism???

[Bryant]

What’s with people rooting for others to get more snow because they’ve had enough? #snocialism???

#snowlivesmatter

[Meatyorologist]

GFS pulling north with less of a supporting trough. No further frames yet, but I suspect that  southern Washington/ northern Oregon gets the ballot with this one.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS pulling north with less of a supporting trough. No further frames yet, but I suspect that southern Washington/ northern Oregon gets the ballot with this one.

The 06z GFS makes landfall along the Central Oregon Coast and then it heads due East. This would be a big snowmaker for PDX Metro.

 

[Bryant]

00z GFS landfall

 

06z GFS landfall

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, the landfall is further north, but the low essentially ends up in the same spot moving east. This allows cold air to pour in from the NW and areas even south of the landfalling low turn back to snow. THIS is why I really want the GFS solution to verify, with the low tracking east it doesn't matter as much where it landfalls, because we stay in a cool/cold pattern longer. So really a variation of low placement still does not support anything the ICON or EURO shows.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 06z FV3 looks similar to the GFS, maybe a little further South. Looks good for PDX Metro.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still in a cool pattern Wednesday morning. Pattern still ends up producing snow down south (Not to mention maintains the chances Sunday), and provides additional chances for Puget Sound region later on...

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

A close up view of the 06z FV3 making landfall and the snow accumulations through Monday 4pm.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 brings the low in at Reedsport and tracks it straight east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow levels almost to the surface Thursday morning.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FV-3 brings the low in at Reedsport and tracks it straight east.

Yeah, great track for the WV.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like widespread light snow for the Puget Sound Thursday morning on the GFS!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Great night shift. Onto the 12z model runs later this morning. ❄❄

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS was OUTSTANDING!

[snow maniac]

Getting some flurries now.

[FroYoBro]

30 degrees with clouds overhead now. 

[snow maniac]

Getting some flurries now.

Light snow with a dusting of white already. Hoping for more

[MossMan]

GFS was OUTSTANDING!

Did you sleep at all?

 

Currently 34 with a DP of 28.

[MossMan]

It’s awesome having a non working radar...

[TT-SEA]

I don't know. I'm probably in the minority here (for WA posters) but I'm hoping this thing stays south. Mainly to let Portlanders/Oregonian's have their fair share of this already incredible month but also because of more practical reasons. Work, school, etc. Everything stops when you get 2ft of snow. Hell, Carnation didn't plow the main roads (the whole TWO of them) until 5 days after the main event and our hill took 3 tractors, 2 pickups, and 4 days to clear. While undoubtedly awesome, also a tad inconvenient.

 

 

This is exactly how I feel.

 

I think others would agree with us if they had been buried as well.   I do understand wanting more if you did not get much though.... unfortunately if some of those people up here gets lots of snow than so do we.    But life also has to go on and to have this happening again on the first day after mid-winter breaks seems almost impossibly crazy.   

 

Anyways... it does not matter what we want and I honestly think its going to bury King County again.    What did the 06Z ECMWF show?

[FroYoBro]

It's happening. 12z NAM already gives us rain and Washington the snow. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Little bit of snow falling in Tacoma right now, won’t stick around long though, not great runs for Portland this morning low looks to be right at the line of rain or snow there...just on the edge, hopefully it all works out well for them and they can get some Easterlies from the gorge, so far looking like Seattle southward is still looking like it’s getting an increasing chance now for Monday

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good morning. The 06z NAVGEM is well South. It takes the Monday system into Northern California.

 

[Esquimalt]

It's happening. 12z NAM already gives us rain and Washington the snow.

Yeah almost gives me a wallop lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is exactly how I feel.

 

I think others would agree with us if they had been buried as well.   I do understand wanting more if you did not get much though.... unfortunately if some of those people up here gets lots of snow than so do we.    But life also has to go on and to have this happening again on the first day after mid-winter breaks seems almost impossibly crazy.   

 

Anyways... it does not matter what we want and I honestly think its going to bury King County again.    What did the 06Z ECMWF show?

I got burried and wanted even more! A true snow lover like me never complains about to much!! Lol

[Geos]

Feels like it will snow this morning. Dewpoint 28°, air 35°

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing moderate here and 31 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

I got burried and wanted even more! A true snow lover like me never complains about to much!! Lol

 

 

Yeah... and you make thousands of dollars every time it snows.    That might influence my opinion too!