Phil Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 Ensemble is trending cooler for later next week. Phil might get to experience a PNW trough.Wooohoooo!!! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 Pretty tacky to flippantly talk about suicide. We just had a situation with a family member in Minnesota that we are dealing with right now.I’m sorry to hear that, man. Difficult to find peace with sudden passings. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 I think the overall pattern is causing problems with all of the models.This might explain some of it (or the WT associated w/ it). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 We can’t always get the weather we want. Do you think I’m enjoying this weather? I vomited a bit. You need to get the f@$k outta there. Maybe change your plane ticket to WA to a one way ticket? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 This summer has been absolutely gorgeous. Just enough cloudy and partly cloudy days to mix things up. Hardly any hot weather. Very nice 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 This winter will not be a dud. Last year didn't happen since I wasn't here to experience it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 This winter will not be a dud. Last year didn't happen since I wasn't here to experience it. I'm sorry. I missed the great Arctic blast in 2013, with the all-time lows in some spots, I was in Texas then, so I can relate. And yeah, this summer has been fantastic. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 I have a very good feeling about this upcoming winter. The CFS has consistently been hinting at a large scale pattern of gulf of Aleutian ridge and pnw-Nunavut trough, from November off and on through March. With the sun as quiet as it is I’m am sure that many of us will see at least a few goodies this winter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 No clouds up there today. That is highly unusual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 20, 2019 Report Share Posted July 20, 2019 I have a very good feeling about this upcoming winter. The CFS has consistently been hinting at a large scale pattern of gulf of Aleutian ridge and pnw-Nunavut trough, from November off and on through March. With the sun as quiet as it is I’m am sure that many of us will see at least a few goodies this winterCFS is also going for plenty of wet weather as well. Most recent monthly (00z) is going for an 8-9” January for Portland (unfortunately also a torching month). Obviously none of this is even close to set in stone, but my feelings about next winter are increasing. There’s a ton of stuff pointing to it being a cold and snowy one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 At least 87 at PDX today. Given today’s overachievement I’d say there’s a pretty good shot they hit 90 tomorrow. First high temperature above 85 there in about five weeks. We were doo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 In happier news, mid-range cooling trend continues on the GFS ensembles. The 18z operational moved in that direction as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 In happier news, mid-range cooling trend continues on the GFS ensembles. The 18z operational moved in that direction as well.FA72C120-2B9D-402F-AA47-8A7373AADB47.pngI know we often call the 18z the druncle but the operational looks really nice for here. Mostly sunny with no major heat waves and no overcast crap either. I’d be happy to see it verify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 In happier news, mid-range cooling trend continues on the GFS ensembles. The 18z operational moved in that direction as well.FA72C120-2B9D-402F-AA47-8A7373AADB47.pngPhil's weather would not be comfortable for you, but neither would it be comfortable for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 Phil's weather would not be comfortable for you, but neither would it be comfortable for me.It’s all relative. Someone that lives in Manitoba or the Yukon might think winters in Chicago are quite comfortable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 I meant he would not like the hot humid East Coast summers compared to a few days in the PNW where it is about 90, but dewpoints are comfortable. Neither could I tolerate 97 F with an 83 F dewpoint, even though I like it hot rather than cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 A 46/78 day. Currently 61. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 Quiet evening on the board tonight. Was at my GF's work summer party at PK Park. Man, we have the best summer weather ever here. I hope Phil can make it to the Willamette Valley at some point in the summer. Currently 71F in downtown Springfield. Going to be a good star watching night. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 00z GFS looks delicious! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 I vomited a bit. You need to get the f@$k outta there. Maybe change your plane ticket to WA to a one way ticket?Soon, my brother. Soon. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 95 with a DP of 110 at some mid Atlantic spot today. Fu*k you, Sistek. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 Of course you were right in the middle of something without proof, once again....Radar and observations aren’t enough? But fine, here’s a video I took, driving my tiny Acura TSX through the tree debris. Pardon the profanity, just didn’t want to scratch up my bumper. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 00z GFS looks delicious!Looks like a good amount of troughing action mainly up in BC. If you look at 7-10 day GFS, you’ll notice forcing is right to the east of the Solomon Islands. I assume that equates to EHEM forcing, but I could be wrong. Also, hope you guys can get a cooler pattern in the east in August. 80+ dewpoints = gross. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 I think we should all meet up with Phil during his visit to Everett and discuss/debate this season’s weather! How fun would that be!Let's do it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 45/86 yesterday. More typical of a September spread in temperatures. I've only had this station since 2010, but that was good enough for both a daily record low and record high. It was my coldest daily record high in July, low hanging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 That ridgy period is completely gone on the GFS now. Crazy how the models have consistently snatched away all the heat inside D7 in this regime. There has been plenty of modeled warmth out in the D8-10 period, but it progressively dies once crossing that D7 barrier. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 That ridgy period is completely gone on the GFS now. Crazy how the models have consistently snatched away all the heat inside D7 in this regime. There has been plenty of modeled warmth out in the D8-10 period, but it progressively dies once crossing that D7 barrier.Yeah, the GFS ensembles now have us only touching average twice the rest of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 Got down to 55 this morning after a high of 86 yesterday. I’ve definitely been enjoying the cooler mornings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 That ridgy period is completely gone on the GFS now. Crazy how the models have consistently snatched away all the heat inside D7 in this regime. There has been plenty of modeled warmth out in the D8-10 period, but it progressively dies once crossing that D7 barrier.It has been so consistent too. It obviously happens from time to time... but it has been happening routinely since the middle of June and always in the same direction. I wonder what is triggering the same long range model errors repeatedly? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 That ridgy period is completely gone on the GFS now. Crazy how the models have consistently snatched away all the heat inside D7 in this regime. There has been plenty of modeled warmth out in the D8-10 period, but it progressively dies once crossing that D7 barrier.Let’s hope that theme keeps chugging along thru next March, and esp in Dec-Jan. Opposite of the day 8 rug-pulls of the last 2 yrs. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 It has been so consistent too. It obviously happens from time to time... but it has been happening routinely since the middle of June and always in the same direction. I wonder what is triggering the same long range model errors repeatedly?I think it’s the repetitive RW structure associated with the lack of large scale low/medium frequency divergence over the West-Pacific. For once the West-Pacific warm pool is not dominating the pattern over the Western Hemisphere. The trigger appears to be that SSW and dynamic final warming this spring, which flipped the NAM and altered the tropical-ET exchanges, similarly to what happened during 2013. Restructured a RWB cycle and altered the ET/subtropical circulation. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 12z GFS runs a full-on Pacific storm into BC in the 7-10 day range. At this point, September through November are probably going to be nonstop ridging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2019 Report Share Posted July 21, 2019 12z GFS runs a full-on Pacific storm into BC in the 7-10 day range. At this point, September through November are probably going to be nonstop ridging.YEAH BABY! WOOHOO! I’m legit excited to be out fishing in that. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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