September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Really remarkable reversal. Looking like a pretty broad trough at that so even I get in on the cool/wet air out here as well. I like it!

Yeah. The quickness of the flip almost has me a little skeptical, it still could flip back again over the next day or so. Hard to believe yesterday’s 12z Euro had an enormous ridge covering basically the entire half of the western US in that same period.

[Kayla]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wonderful news!

[jakeinthevalley]

Anybody buy into the Friday the 13th thing? I generally don't, but Friday, September 13th is a thing for me. I am in bubble wrap today.

 

Friday, September 13th 1985 I shattered my ankle in a HS football game at Banks HS and spent the better part of the night at Forest Grove Hospital.

 

Friday September 13th 2002 while finishing up a woodworking project for my buddy's wedding the next day, I nearly cut off  a finger on a table saw and spent the night at the Dallas Hospital undergoing surgery to rebuild my finger.

 

My wife considered taking my keys away from me today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Anybody buy into the Friday the 13th thing? I generally don't, but Friday, September 13th is a thing for me. I am in bubble wrap today.

 

Friday, September 13th 1985 I shattered my ankle in a HS football game at Banks HS and spent the better part of the night at Forest Grove Hospital.

 

Friday September 13th 2002 while finishing up a woodworking project for my buddy's wedding the next day, I nearly cut off a finger on a table saw and spent the night at the Dallas Hospital undergoing surgery to rebuild my finger.

 

My wife considered taking my keys away from me today.

Confirmation bias. Same thing as the lunar effect.

[Deweydog]

Anybody buy into the Friday the 13th thing? I generally don't, but Friday, September 13th is a thing for me. I am in bubble wrap today.

 

Friday, September 13th 1985 I shattered my ankle in a HS football game at Banks HS and spent the better part of the night at Forest Grove Hospital.

 

Friday September 13th 2002 while finishing up a woodworking project for my buddy's wedding the next day, I nearly cut off a finger on a table saw and spent the night at the Dallas Hospital undergoing surgery to rebuild my finger.

 

My wife considered taking my keys away from me today.

I got married on September 13th.

[Dave]

I got married on September 13th.

Happy Birthday!!

[Deweydog]

Happy Birthday!!

It was even a Friday. Our marriage can vote in the next election.

 

#resist

[jakeinthevalley]

It was even a Friday. Our marriage can vote in the next election.

 

#resist

I think there was a series of movies made about this. Were you married at Camp Crystal Lake, by chance?

[Omegaraptor]

Anybody buy into the Friday the 13th thing? I generally don't, but Friday, September 13th is a thing for me. I am in bubble wrap today.

 

Friday, September 13th 1985 I shattered my ankle in a HS football game at Banks HS and spent the better part of the night at Forest Grove Hospital.

 

Friday September 13th 2002 while finishing up a woodworking project for my buddy's wedding the next day, I nearly cut off  a finger on a table saw and spent the night at the Dallas Hospital undergoing surgery to rebuild my finger.

 

My wife considered taking my keys away from me today.

One of those led to a great winter. The other led to a not-so-great winter.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

One of those led to a great winter. The other led to a not-so-great winter.

Not so great is being kind. 02-03 and 14-15 were both ghastly.

[Deweydog]

I think there was a series of movies made about this. Were you married at Camp Crystal Lake, by chance?

It’s been a seventeen year long parade of horrors. Ironically we’re planning to go to the Clark County Parade of Homes tomorrow...

[Omegaraptor]

Not so great is being kind. 02-03 and 14-15 were both ghastly.

What made 02-03 worse than 00-01? 02-03 was at least wet and had remotely acceptable mountain snowpack I think, 00-01 was a desiccated snowless winter and one of the top 5 worst snow years on record at Timberline.

 

14-15 was horrible by just about every metric unless you hate rain/snow and want the warmest winters possible.

[Timmy Supercell]

Early next week looks fun. I honestly wouldn't mind if this was summer's last breath. This time of year I start to thirst for some decent afternoon rains.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Feels good to have the regular season starting up early! 2013 was so great. Which of those 5 winters with active Septembers was a dud and was it low solar?

[Timmy Supercell]

What made 02-03 worse than 00-01? 02-03 was at least wet and had remotely acceptable mountain snowpack I think, 00-01 was a desiccated snowless winter and one of the top 5 worst snow years on record at Timberline.

 

14-15 was horrible by just about every metric unless you hate rain/snow and want the warmest winters possible.

 

And didn't 02-03 at least feature a few moderate wind events in the PNW? Or was I remembering the next season. 

 

Yeah there were some wet weeks too I recall. Those were not boring winters by any means.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Heading up to OHSU so getting a good profile of the valley. Clearer down south but still nice and partly cloudy in Salem.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And didn't 02-03 at least feature a few moderate wind events in the PNW? Or was I remembering the next season.

 

Yeah there were some wet weeks too I recall. Those were not boring winters by any means.

I was speaking in terms of meaningful cold and snow. But there was certainly active weather those cold seasons.

[Phil]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

So you want to know what it is like to be in a category 5 hurricane?  This video is insane.  Watch on a big screen TV if you can.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So far this fall does not look anything like 2002. That was a drier than average September followed by an all-time dry October in some parts of the PNW. Probably one of the reasons the late October cold snap was able to do so well with radiational cooling. 

 

Salem had 0.98" of rain in September and only 0.47" of rain in October. They already have 1.29" this month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One of the interesting aspects of 2013 was how dry October was following the wet September. 

 

Also looking down through history a wet September is definitely not a bad sign for the coming winter, but a dry September is not a death knell either. September 2008 and 1992 were dry at SLE. 

 

Fall 2016 kind of showed me that reading the tea leaves is often an exercise in futility. That was about the most torch tastic fall imaginable up here and the winter turned out to be great.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs still showing a wet next few days coming up. Shows 1.5-2.0” over western WA and OR just through day 6.

[Timmy Supercell]

One of the interesting aspects of 2013 was how dry October was following the wet September. 

 

Also looking down through history a wet September is definitely not a bad sign for the coming winter, but a dry September is not a death knell either. September 2008 and 1992 were dry at SLE. 

 

Fall 2016 kind of showed me that reading the tea leaves is often an exercise in futility. That was about the most torch tastic fall imaginable up here and the winter turned out to be great.  

 

Still regionally Fall 2016 ended decently wet in the PNW. I even had some juicy fronts come on through in K-Falls and two decent wind events before my snow started kicking in. A few locations including mine had as much as 3-4x normal October rainfall. 

 

Though Sep 2016 was a good deal drier than 2019 so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes fall 2016 was pretty wet. I have actually found a pretty decent correlation between wet falls and colder/better winters, at least up here. However, last fall was not wet and we ended up with a pretty historic February, so not all rules apply all the time. 

[Front Ranger]

One of the interesting aspects of 2013 was how dry October was following the wet September.

 

Also looking down through history a wet September is definitely not a bad sign for the coming winter, but a dry September is not a death knell either. September 2008 and 1992 were dry at SLE.

 

Fall 2016 kind of showed me that reading the tea leaves is often an exercise in futility. That was about the most torch tastic fall imaginable up here and the winter turned out to be great.

.

 

The biggest correlation is dry fall/wet fall.

 

All else being equal, a wet fall bodes better.

[Timmy Supercell]

Yes fall 2016 was pretty wet. I have actually found a pretty decent correlation between wet falls and colder/better winters, at least up here. However, last fall was not wet and we ended up with a pretty historic February, so not all rules apply all the time. 

 

I had a very cool November last year (set a few record lows too) and my 2nd half of winter was pretty snowy. Similarly I also had a cool November in 2011, that was a dry/chilly start to winter as well, 2nd half was pretty snowy for K-Falls.

[ShawniganLake]

18z ensembles look warm the last 1/3 of September. Delayed but not denied perhaps.

[weatherfan2012]

No.

agreed many things don't support a La nina right now.

[Front Ranger]

agreed many things don't support a La nina right now.

The next time you don't 100% agree with Phil will be the first.

 

Same goes for capitalizing the first word in a sentence.

[TacomaWaWx]

69/59 day today. Had a couple sprinkles, but no real rain since about 7am. 0.07” today.

[BLI snowman]

The next time you don't 100% agree with Phil will be the first.

 

Same goes for capitalizing the first word in a sentence.

 

Phil's sock?

[Timmy Supercell]

84/40 today. Nice day.

[Front Ranger]

Phil's sock?

If he didn't have such a spotless record of integrity, I would be suspicious.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles look warm the last 1/3 of September. Delayed but not denied perhaps.

Only four degrees above average down here month to date. Things are bound to warm up eventually.

[ShawniganLake]

Only four degrees above average down here month to date. Things are bound to warm up eventually.

Dewey called it. A warm up after the cool down.

 

~ +3.8F month to date here.

[Deweydog]

Been a wet summer so far...

[Omegaraptor]

Been a wet summer so far...

It’ll definitely go down as a wet summer as well, since there’s a big dump of rain coming right before it ends.

[Jesse]

It’ll definitely go down as a wet summer as well, since there’s a big dump of rain coming right before it ends.

Meteorological summer is June-August.

[Omegaraptor]

Meteorological summer is June-August.

 

I know, I'm just playing along with Dewey.

 

but but but but September is warmer than June on the West Coast!!!!!!!!