October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Can't help but notice that despite the SLP being centered well west in MN, the effects are covering the Mitt like a big circular spiral. I mentioned in my post about the sky conditions I photographed yesterday that they indicated a good scenario. Just imagine this a bit east during winter. Watch out! if that happens like it did back in Feb of '85. 24+ inches of LES in Battle Creek per the data. 

 

20191020-18z gfs_mslpa_us_7.png

Models have trended towards a stronger, tightly, wrapped SLP right over MSP today as it slowly tracks up into SW Ontario.  Like you said, I love seeing these trends going forward.  I was gonna say, looks like the western shores of MI are expecting 10-14 footers tomorrow.  Yikes!  Not again...I think there will be severe damage by the time Winter rolls around.  People who own property up/down the shoreline are going to want the ice to build up quickly this year to avoid the erosion.  

 

 

That's one pretty looking storm...beastly!  Low 980's???  

[Tom]

This is one impressive looking radar...it literally has a line of storms stretching all the way down into deep TX up all the way into the Dakotas!  Talk about power from nature!

 

 

 

[Tom]

Oh no, as Jaster said, there was a large wedge Tornado touchdown over N Dallas last night and people were caught in the middle of it on the roadways.  Not a good combination, esp being a nighttime twister.  Major damage across town.

 

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1186114650594787394

 

Tyler Seguin's house was destroyed....he's a hockey player for the Dallas Stars...

 

 

 

[Andie]

It got wild down here real fast last night. The storms weren't very strong on the west side of Ft.Worth but quickly blew up and hammered Dallas. Odds o go from dull warm days to chaos. Heavy rain last night, but the high winds and tornado were not a welcomed change.

Also quiett his morning as folks east of me are trying to pick up the pieces.

[Grizzcoat]

Not as wild as that tornado in TX- but Central IA has AGAIN been soaked. Overnight rains in the 1-2" range have pushed the official DSM rainfall for OCT through 7AM to 7.20". Good for 2nd place all time dating back to the early 1880's with 1st place just .09" away at 7.29" set in 1941. Yearly stands at 46.52" good enough for 5th all time with still 2+ months left.  AVG yearly  rainfall for Orlando, FL  is 52" --- I hope this translates into some WHITE GOLD!!!

[St Paul Storm]

Another 1” of soaking rain expected here today. We only need another 2” of precip for the remainder of the year for 2019 to be the wettest year on record.

[Andie]

The South is still getting shook up this morning. Rough commute in areas.

[Grizzcoat]

Another 1” of soaking rain expected here today. We only need another 2” of precip for the remainder of the year for 2019 to be the wettest year on record.

 

St Paul Storm- good info. So I looked it up. Wettest year on record for MSP area is 40.15" in 1911. Crazy stat of the week is the following; the driest year on record for MSP ( with records going back WELL into the 1800's)  is 11.54" in 1910-- JUST ONE YEAR EARLIER THAN THE WETTEST!!  that is nuts and good example of how climate/weather evens itself out.

[jaster220]

St Paul Storm- good info. So I looked it up. Wettest year on record for MSP area is 40.15" in 1911. Crazy stat of the week is the following; the driest year on record for MSP ( with records going back WELL into the 1800's)  is 11.54" in 1910-- JUST ONE YEAR EARLIER THAN THE WETTEST!!  that is nuts and good example of how climate/weather evens itself out.

 

An even bigger take-away is the fact that 1911-12 is one of the notoriously harsh winters bantered about as a strong analog to where we may be heading with this coming winter. Amazing stuff, thx for the dig on that history. 

[westMJim]

I have not been outside yet this AM but looking out the window I can tell you that there has been a big uptick in the color in my area. Even with the clouds today the color is real good but there are a lot of leaves now falling and with the wind coming in that will only increase. At this time it is 53° both here at my house and at GRR. The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 68/46 and October is now almost at average at +0.1° For today the average H/L is 58/40 the record high is 85 set in 1953 and the record low is 18 set in 1974.

[Niko]

Attm, its 51F under mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be picking up later today as well as the rain. I am thinking that a lot of leaves will fall off the trees w this wind coming. Windy conditions will prevail until Wednesday morning.

[Niko]

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

433 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019
 

MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-220845-

Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Tuscola-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-

Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

433 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.
 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
 

Gusty southeast winds of 25 to 35 mph will develop today in response

to the strong storm system over the upper Mississippi River Valley.

Thunderstorm development will be possible between 9 pm and 1 am

tonight along and ahead of a cold front. The potential exists for

isolated wind gusts of up to 45 mph with any shower or thunderstorm

activity along the front. Storm movement this evening is expected to

be to the north northeast at approximately 60 mph.

 

[OKwx2k4]

One fatality in neighboring county to my northeast, possible tornado reported and widespread evidence plus reports verified of 75-85 mile per hour winds in my county at midnight last night. Wild night.

[St Paul Storm]

St Paul Storm- good info. So I looked it up. Wettest year on record for MSP area is 40.15" in 1911. Crazy stat of the week is the following; the driest year on record for MSP ( with records going back WELL into the 1800's)  is 11.54" in 1910-- JUST ONE YEAR EARLIER THAN THE WETTEST!!  that is nuts and good example of how climate/weather evens itself out.

Good stuff! Thanks for looking that up.

[OKwx2k4]

St Paul Storm- good info. So I looked it up. Wettest year on record for MSP area is 40.15" in 1911. Crazy stat of the week is the following; the driest year on record for MSP ( with records going back WELL into the 1800's) is 11.54" in 1910-- JUST ONE YEAR EARLIER THAN THE WETTEST!! that is nuts and good example of how climate/weather evens itself out.

Lol. I love this. About the most perfect example you could think of huh?

[bud2380]

6z GFS trying to bring some snow back in the picture...

 

[Grizzcoat]

I live in IA. But got Serious roots in MN. reason why i know my MN stats. Anything you wanna know about MN Weather - I can hammer it out. (MN CLIMO working group is aweseome)  Been in IA for 20+ years- I know of no site for IA similalr?   

[CentralNebWeather]

45 degrees with sprinkles and a northwest wind of 35 gusting over 50 MPH and forecast says winds could gust to 60 MPH.  Leaves are falling like crazy.  Not a great color fall for sure.  Many leaves had already fallen as green after the 3 nights of hard freezes.  Now the winds have been very strong the last several days.  I would say 3/4 of the leaves or more in town will be down by tomorrow.  Ahead of schedule from my knowledge of leaves here.

[OKwx2k4]

My trees here got blasted last night also. 75+mph does a number on them.

 

Very analogous event to 12-31-10 last night here. Almost to a "T". The tornado was even about 4 miles from being in the same place.

[OKwx2k4]

Also, I'm still pretending like I don't see that random Halloween storm that keeps showing that funny precip type. Lol. In about 4-5 days it will be hard not to notice if it's still there.

[Tom]

This is how close the Tornado came to my cousins house in Dallas...it was less than a mile from his place...he's counting his blessings this morning as nothing happened to his home.

[jaster220]

RGEM has a 2nd Pressure Center popping in WI. In winter this loop would be 20 hrs of all-out LES blizzard all along W Mich. Wild stuff will go down if these strong wound-up systems continue into the cold season!

 

[Iowawx]

I got 0.63" of rain this morning. My October rainfall total so far is 5.82". 

[Niko]

Clouds are starting to thicken here. Rain is knocking on my doorstep. Winds should be picking up as well.

[jaster220]

This is how close the Tornado came to my cousins house in Dallas...it was less than a mile from his place...he's counting his blessings this morning as nothing happened to his home.

 

I'd say he is! Woah, too close for comfort there! 

[Clinton]

GFS keeps wanting to make Halloween white, hope it can gather a little more cold air.

[jaster220]

Clouds are starting to thicken here. Rain is knocking on my doorstep. Winds should be picking up as well.

 

The contrast from yesterday is stark. 2 days, 2 seasons in a nutshell. 

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.75" of rain overnight/this morning... a very solid rain event after a nice dry period.

 

My October rainfall total is 4.63".

[jaster220]

For the sake of the lakeshore, I'm glad this isn't happening. It'll be bad enough as-is. 

 

 

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Another fall storm system will affect the region over the course of
the next 36 to 48 hours. We finally have some consensus with the
depth of the low, in the 980`s mb`s, over Wisconsin. Yesterday a run
of the ECMWF deterministic had a 975mb low over Wisconsin. Now both
the GFS and ECMWF are in the low 980`s. Still a formidable low by
Great Lakes fall standards. A reason why this will be a bit more
impactful in terms of winds along the lakeshore is that the low in
Wisconsin pinwheels towards us late tonight into Tuesday morning.
this will place the tightest pressure gradient right over Lake
Michigan. See details in the marine section on the Gale Warning and
Lakeshore Flood Warning that are now in place. We may need to
consider a Wind Advisory on the land in the lakeshore counties for
especially on Tuesday. At this point holding off on that, but the
day shift may need to consider it.

[Niko]

The contrast from yesterday is stark. 2 days, 2 seasons in a nutshell. 

I know..crazy!

[Niko]

Just cleaned out my garden.

[Tom]

Winds are starting to get rather gusty here and the leaves have begun to fly off the trees and blow around the neighborhood.  I enjoy these type of days as it settles in that Autumn feel even more.  Temps are in the low 60's (61F) so its pretty comfortable and not to bad outside.

[Niko]

Winds are starting to get rather gusty here and the leaves have begun to fly off the trees and blow around the neighborhood.  I enjoy these type of days as it settles in that Autumn feel even more.  Temps are in the low 60's (61F) so its pretty comfortable and not to bad outside.

Its a mild 63F as well..so great opportunity to do last minute yard stuff b4 the real cold settles in.

[bud2380]

Canadian also dropping snow on the 29th/30th for a good chunk of the area.  This is a 10 day total, but much of this is from the 29th/30th.

 

[Niko]

Went up north yesterday in Romeo (Jaster, you might know the area) and I gotta tell ya, it was a very picturesque place to visit, especially this time of the year. Also, a few ancient buildings, which had a museum, which, I went inside and observed. Small town, but interesting to say the least. The reason for this mini trip was to go to the Applecider spot where you eat fresh donuts and drink fresh apple juice. It was kinda nice. They had a trainride also. Yes, I went on it. I like trains.

[Niko]

GFS keeps wanting to make Halloween white, hope it can gather a little more cold air.

Good luck Clinton.

[jaster220]

Went up north yesterday in Romeo (Jaster, you might know the area) and I gotta tell ya, it was a very picturesque place to visit, especially this time of the year. Also, a few ancient buildings, which had a museum, which, I went inside and observed. Small town, but interesting to say the least. The reason for this mini trip was to go to the Applecider spot where you eat fresh donuts and drink fresh apple juice. It was kinda nice. They had a trainride also. Yes, I went on it. I like trains.

 

LMAO at "up north". What is that, a 15 min drive from Macomb??  "Up north" starts at Michigan state hwy 55. That's about 100 miles north of yby. I had an uncle, my dad's older brother, who was born and raised in Detroit. Furthest north he ever ventured during his entire lifetime was Flint. And that was for his honeymoon! You mentioned "ghost towns" north of Detroit. Cracked me up since I go outta my way to take the most off the beaten track back-roads whenever I can. Makes me remember a Purer Michigan before all the national chain stores & eateries made every town look the same. It feels closer to the Michigan I grew up with. Anyways, trains are cool. Sounds like a great cider orchard. Used to do that when the kids were young. Fresh cider, donuts, and a hay-wagon ride. An autumn tradition in SMI that I do miss.. 

[jaster220]

Baro is lowering nicely, again. I could do this all winter

 

Humidity 87% Wind Speed SE 16 G 25 mph Barometer 29.64 in Dewpoint 56°F (13°C) Visibility 7.00 mi Last update 21 Oct 2:16 pm EDT

 

[Tom]

I love everything about this satellite image...very impressive mid lat cyclone...I think we are going to get used to seeing images like these...#CentralCONUSShow

 

SLP in the 980's and knocking on MSP's doorstep...

 

 

 

 

EDIT: Pressures just dropped to 986mb!

 

[Niko]

LMAO at "up north". What is that, a 15 min drive from Macomb??  "Up north" starts at Michigan state hwy 55. That's about 100 miles north of yby. I had an uncle, my dad's older brother, who was born and raised in Detroit. Furthest north he ever ventured during his entire lifetime was Flint. And that was for his honeymoon! You mentioned "ghost towns" north of Detroit. Cracked me up since I go outta my way to take the most off the beaten track back-roads whenever I can. Makes me remember a Purer Michigan before all the national chain stores & eateries made every town look the same. It feels closer to the Michigan I grew up with. Anyways, trains are cool. Sounds like a great cider orchard. Used to do that when the kids were young. Fresh cider, donuts, and a hay-wagon ride. An autumn tradition in SMI that I do miss.. 

It seemed like going up north. The ride was around 20 min. Not that bad.

 

It was pretty decent. There were lots of people there as well. That wagon ride was fun as well. Kinda makes you feel Fall is in the air.

 

You dont go to these cider orchards anymore?!