OKwx2k4 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 12z ICON...Lovely...Bombs away!!!! The model is "seeing" the secondary piece as the main show which I alluded to yesterday. Nice eye candy...Any change at all in the timing of that cold down here could mean white stuff or no white stuff. That close. It's October. Holy crap. It's going to be darn cold, that's for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Wow, the 12z ICON has a powerful blizzard wrapped up over Iowa on Halloween! That would be amazing.Also has a secondary system like the Euro and has been trending stronger with it WOW! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Man, this system will be packing a lot of wind. NE IA looks to get hammered w this one. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 trying hard not to get my hopes up for next week. Still too far out.... loving the trends though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 How long before we start a thread for this? I know it's a ways out and it's now starting to look like 2 separate systems, but everyone but the GFS is on this. That ICON run....wow. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Nice progressive NW flow on the GFS. Dry and cold all the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 How long before we start a thread for this? I know it's a ways out and it's now starting to look like 2 separate systems, but everyone but the GFS is on this. That ICON run....wow. Maybe after today's 12z Euro run??? Probably include both pieces...looks like a 2-part storm at this range...sorta similar to the GHD-1 Blizzard...Analog??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 The GFS is trying to hold the energy farther west a bit each run, but it still has a LONG way to go to match the foreign models. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 We'll see how this plays out, but if the GFS is dead wrong, that would be alarming that this model could be that far off base within 5-7 days of a storm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Is the Icon showing a lead system on Tuesday as well? Or is that part of the 1-2 punch you guys are talking about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 12z ICON...Lovely...Bombs away!!!! The model is "seeing" the secondary piece as the main show which I alluded to yesterday. Nice eye candy... Amazing closeness of outcome with prior GEM run I had posted. GEM ICON Euro EDIT: Pretty robust consensus that IF there's a secondary wave that does blow up, it likes Tom's place for a pathway. Classic early winter Chicago SLP magnet. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Is the Icon showing a lead system on Tuesday as well? Or is that part of the 1-2 punch you guys are talking about?2- part system with a lead wave and then a secondary stronger piece coming up from the Deep South. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 The GFS is trying to hold the energy farther west a bit each run, but it still has a LONG way to go to match the foreign models.Crazy to see the GFS this far off from the other models. I would think it would have something around the same thing as the others but to show absolutely nothing is something else. Question comes down what wins out: combo, foreign models, or GFS??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Crazy to see the GFS this far off from the other models. I would think it would have something around the same thing as the others but to show absolutely nothing is something else. Question comes down what wins out: combo, foreign models, or GFS??? ..and yet, my fantastic office likes the GFS There have been some timing differences in terms of the arrival ofthe coldest air. At this time we believe the most likely outcomeis that the coldest air will arrive by Tue night and Wednesdayrather than later in the week. This is based on a consensus ofthe latest GFS/JMA/German ICON medium range guidance solutions interms of the evolution of the upper level pattern by then. Theless progressive ECMWF deterministic and ensemble solutions havebeen an outlier in this regard. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 ..and yet, my fantastic office likes the GFS Jaster, the GGEM/NAM starting to trend towards a nice storm for the Lower GL's this weekend...Back-to-Back storms over the next week??? #FollowTheLeader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 12z GGEM digging deep and cutting up towards the Lower GL's... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Looks close too the icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Meanwhile in the panhandle of Texas.........thundersnow! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Thundersnow and 10 tornados.....yup, it's Texas. Man, what an outbreak. We have ~2" of rain on the way today. We get nothing for months, then Mother Nature backs up the truck! The NWS said preliminary indications are that the tornado will be rated an EF-0 with winds hitting 80 mph. The weather service will provide more information on the tornado later.Nine other tornadoes were confirmed to have touched down in North Texas on Sunday including the following: North Dallas & Richardson - EF-3 with maximum wind speeds of 140 mph; path length 15.75 miles. Initial damage near I-35E and Walnut Hill. Path continued east between Walnut Hill and Royal Lane, through Preston Hollow, to near Central Expressway. Additional damage found near Audelia and Buckingham roads in Richardson.Garland - EF-2 with winds to 135 mph; path length of 2.5 miles along the southwestern side of the city.Rockwall - EF-1 with winds to 90 mph; path length of 1.96 miles with some straightline wind damage.Rowlett, Sachse & Wylie - EF-1 with winds up to 100 mph; path length of 6 miles. NWS survey crews found EF-1 tornado damage on Hickox Road (Rowlett) near the President George Bush Turnpike and on Eastview Drive (Sachse). Additional tornado damage was observed on Larkin Lane in Rowlett, elsehwere in the Pleasant Valley area of Sachse, and on Elm Grove Lane in Wylie.Midlothian - EF-1 with max winds to 100 mph.Kaufman County #1 - EF-0 with max winds to 80 mph.Kaufman County #2 - EF-1 with max winds to 105 mph.Ferris - EF-0 with max winds to 85 mph.Wills Point - EF-0 with wind speeds to 80 mph; path lenght of .63 miles. NWS survey crews found tornado damage along County Road 3849 north of Wills Point (Van Zandt County). 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Euro looks quite a bit south and weaker with the first wave at hr 120 (based on TT 24 hour maps). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Wpc is buying into the icon and euro more it appears. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Euro thrrough 126- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Missed to the south in October. Wild stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Pretty big change around these parts on the euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Looks like I will pick up near an inch of rainfall w the weekend's system. Had it be snow, well, near 10" right there. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 I might wanna think about doing yard cleanup. Was gonna wait til all leaves were all down but might not get that chance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 What the hell happens between hr 168 and 192?? My god. 1011mb to 979?! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Would be totally shocked (if the Euro is on) if this snow event doesn't move N and esp NW considering the timer of year. Lots of climo data to back my saying. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 12z Euro goes bonkers...GL’s bomb! Holy smokes! #ThreadTime 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 What the hell happens between hr 168 and 192?? My god. 1011mb to 979?! That track suggests a trend toward IL/WI getting the heavy snow rather than eastern IA. Of course, this is still a week away and will change many times. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 I'll take that first wave and run with it lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Jaster, the GGEM/NAM starting to trend towards a nice storm for the Lower GL's this weekend...Back-to-Back storms over the next week??? #FollowTheLeader ..Back-to-Back storms over the next week??? Looks like this would be an amazing stretch with winter temps in place. '78-79 like for Chi-town! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 It's Oct. 24th and you are seeing an Observation like this?? WOW. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 ..Back-to-Back storms over the next week??? Looks like this would be an amazing stretch with winter temps in place. '78-79 like for Chi-town!I would like to see all of us in the game this season. With that in mind, I don’t think I’ve ever experienced a big snow for Halloween. Would be cool to witness if it does happen. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 It's Oct. 24th and you are seeing an Observation like this?? WOW.The atmosphere is primed! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Give me this storm and I'll never ask for another one! ... until the next one, of course. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 12Z Euro 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 12Z EuroHow are winds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 12Z EuroCongrats to those in parts of IA and WI peeps on here. Euro wants to destroy your area. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 I wanna be excited but it's a ways out yet. I've seen snow before Halloween but nothing like that! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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