Hawkeye Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 That track suggests a trend toward IL/WI getting the heavy snow rather than eastern IA. I guess not. Illinois gets little if any snow as the mid level is way too warm. I have to remember this is still October. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 How are winds?Is this what your looking for bud? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Congrats to those in parts of IA and WI peeps on here. Euro wants to destroy your area.A week out. Climo says the dakotas/MN reel this one in. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Is this what your looking for bud?Here...Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard....let’s see here, we started the month with a Blizzard...why not end the month with a Monster Blizzard??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 A week out. Climo says the dakotas/MN reel this one in.Idk. Lot of moving pieces and strong cold air. This track isn't impossible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 A week out. Climo says the dakotas/MN reel this one in.I don’t think so with this one...this has already been an abnormal month. Blocking will be very strong during this set up. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 I guess not. Illinois gets little if any snow as the mid level is way too warm. I have to remember this is still October. That's why I'm not actually getting my hopes up at all for this. I still expect this to pull north with time and end up as at least a Nebby/W Iowa, Minny special, but it's cool to have something there to look at right now. I'm not dismissing the possibility. I'm just saying there is still a lot of time for this to change. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 How are winds? The Euro's delayed wrap-up (compared to the ICON) keeps the wind over Iowa reasonable. However, it shows 80 mph gusts over the open Great Lakes. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Move a bit north I want the daughter trick or treating in a foot of snow lol 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Congrats to those in parts of IA and WI peeps on here. Euro wants to destroy your area.I would take that and run with it for sure!! Not the big totals; tell you the truth I would rather save the big totals for later in the year. Would had to see damage done to trees with leaves on them. I'm still in shock though that the GFS still doesn't have anything for snow. As someone mentioned before; lots of things can happen between now and next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Here’s the map of the exact same timeframe in 1991. The 12z Euro track is slightly east of this, but woah. Freaky close. Another Halloween Blizzard in the making? 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Sooo much to follow - on overload (while @ work no less) Weekend system ingests a late-blooming tropical cyclone! The truest of GOMEX lows 24/12z GEM 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 The Euro's delayed wrap-up (compared to the ICON) keeps the wind over Iowa reasonable. However, it shows 80 mph gusts over the open Great Lakes. I'm hearing 12z GEM goes nuclear over SMI with 75 mph winds at 850 mb (likely to mix down due to bombing 24mb in 12 hrs) EDIT: Correction, it was the 12z Euro, not the GEM 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Timing wise on the Euro right now, the first wave looks to hit Iowa late Monday night into Tuesday the 29th (roughly 114 hours out for the start time on the 12z run), and then wave 2 moves in on Halloween morning (roughly 168 hours out from the start time). So obviously a long ways to go here, but starting to get real interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Timing wise on the Euro right now, the first wave looks to hit Iowa late Monday night into Tuesday the 29th (roughly 114 hours out for the start time on the 12z run), and then wave 2 moves in on Halloween morning (roughly 168 hours out from the start time). So obviously a long ways to go here, but starting to get real interesting. Inside of h120 for storm initiation is traditionally thread trigger time (fwiw) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 I'm hearing 12z GEM goes nuclear over SMI with 75 mph winds at 850 mb (likely to mix down due to bombing 24mb in 12 hrs) EDIT: Correction, it was the 12z Euro, not the GEM This guy.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 /\ Funny thing, last evening I had thoughts this could be the classic Straights of Michigan autumn bomb Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 I guess I shouldn't be surprised at a boring DMX discussion this far out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Sooo much to follow - on overload (while @ work no less) Weekend system ingests a late-blooming tropical cyclone! The truest of GOMEX lows 24/12z GEM 20191024 12z GEM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh36-56.gif Per a Met in the LOT office on the weekend system. Interesting that this shoots north right on the heals of a cold morning (31F here) "Can easily see the tropical connection on the pwat plume on the 12z Euro. Intense 850 mb LLJ in the warm conveyor. Impressive rain event locally modeled by the 12z Euro. Would imagine with the magnitude of the WAA and near record high pwats that embedded thunderstorms could occur due to slantwise instability in the comma head." Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 I guess I shouldn't be surprised at a boring DMX discussion this far out CPC not biting on the snowiest solutions at this range either. (SPS is closest to scoring with today's map) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 /\ Heck, they even lost the winds around the GL's Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 Some good info: MPX a potent northern stream shortwave will dive down fromManitoba and could phase with the leading trough to itssoutheast. The previous ECMWF had shown this, resulting in heavysnow Tuesday. The 12Z has shifted a bit toward the GFS, which hasbeen very progressive with the base of the southwestern trough andessentially shears it out before it can become negatively tiltedwith the Canadian shortwave. The GFS is notorious for being tooprogressive, while the ECMWF can be too deep and slow with strongtroughs. The EPS is usually some of the best guidance in patternssuch as these. Therefore, we and WPC went with the 00Z EPS mean. The12Z ensemble guidance is not available for the dayshift forecast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 24, 2019 Report Share Posted October 24, 2019 I forgot to post that I got 0.18" of rain yesterday. That may not sound like much, but with that rain, my October rainfall total so far is 6.00". We will likely add to that total next week as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Sooo much to follow - on overload (while @ work no less) Weekend system ingests a late-blooming tropical cyclone! The truest of GOMEX lows 24/12z GEM 20191024 12z GEM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh36-56.gifHow sweet that looks. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 I would take that and run with it for sure!! Not the big totals; tell you the truth I would rather save the big totals for later in the year. Would had to see damage done to trees with leaves on them. I'm still in shock though that the GFS still doesn't have anything for snow. As someone mentioned before; lots of things can happen between now and next week. Makes me wonder why the GFS is being so stubborn w this system. Maybe its on to something or seeing something differently. Not sure why, buy I've always respected the GFS for some reason. Watch next week GFS shows a monster blizzard outta nowhere for someone on here 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Attm, its 45F and cloudy skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Low of 23* tonight! And snow. 8 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Halloween nite kids will definitely need to bundle up and who knows, maybe encountering some snowshowers as well. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 A ton of rain coming w the weekend system. Locally more than 3" possible for mby. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 A ton of rain coming w the weekend system. Locally more than 3" possible for mby. GRR playing catch-up as usual. They've gone from nada to sprinkles to passing showers to suddenly a full-on event. .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Weak ridging should keep us dry through Saturday morning, andtemperatures should bottom out near or below freezing Saturdaymorning with clear skies. A potent upper level low will lift northup the Miss. River valley on Saturday, with a strengtheningsurface low expected to pass through Michigan Saturday night. Rainis likely from Saturday afternoon or evening into part of Sundaymorning. Precip amounts have trended upward; now about an inch ispossible over much of the area. The kind of trend you love to see in winter. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Gotta love the wording, lol A nontrivial number of ensemblemembers are also putting down some accumulating snow amounts overan inch during the latter half of the week. Of course,accumulating snow would not be atypical for the time of year. (I think this was written by that new guy from down south) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 GRR playing catch-up as usual. They've gone from nada to sprinkles to passing showers to suddenly a full-on event. .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Weak ridging should keep us dry through Saturday morning, andtemperatures should bottom out near or below freezing Saturdaymorning with clear skies. A potent upper level low will lift northup the Miss. River valley on Saturday, with a strengtheningsurface low expected to pass through Michigan Saturday night. Rainis likely from Saturday afternoon or evening into part of Sundaymorning. Precip amounts have trended upward; now about an inch ispossible over much of the area. The kind of trend you love to see in winter. Now, can you imagine what snowfall amts we would be talking here tanite, had this been later in the season?! Probably very healthy accumulations, that's for sure. Probably need 2 snowblowers. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 A ton of rain coming w the weekend system. Locally more than 3" possible for mby. What source is showing THAT much? Needless to say, in winter this would be a serious thumper scenario. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 What source is showing THAT much? Needless to say, in winter this would be a serious thumper scenario. 20191024 12z GEM Gomex rainstorm.JPGhttps://www.wunderground.com/hourly/us/mi/macomb%20township/48042/date/2019-10-26 2 to 3 inches is not outta the question. We will see. Tbh, this is a great sign. Maybe this will be the storm track this upcoming Winter that we have been missing lately. 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Gfs finally coming around but misses Omaha. Lame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Wagons north on the runs tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Well the icon is way north and weak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Euro still interesting for many on this board for early next week but the focus of this post is late next week around Halloween.What you get when you have a hydrologist write the AFD from DMX- on the early week system- "Precip chances begin Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday night as surfacelow pressure lifts northeast from the southern U.S. Precipitationtypes will be a challenge due to the cold temperatures. Dependingon time of day and temperatures, rain, rain/snow mix or snow willbe possible. Confidence in precip types will increase as time goeson." Could he be anymore bland and dull stating the obvious? My 8th Grade kid can write that from what he has learned in Earth Science and the semesters not even over yet.... "The balance of the long term period beyond Tuesday night looks dry." Long Term- ZOGG Really - that's all you got? MPX take on things beyond Tuesday; "Following this energy, the GFS may move the trough too fasteastward, with the ECMWF slower, holding back the trough anddriving cold air well into Texas by Wednesday as a strong 130kt300mb jet drops to the base of the trough. We will need to watchthe evolution of this trough into midweek, as the ECMWF movesstrong height falls east/northeast toward the western Great Lakesby Halloween/Thursday. The southeast CWA could once again beaffected by this system. The 00z Canadian did develop a surfacelow and lifted northeast across eastern Iowa into centralWisconsin by Friday morning. It produced a stripe a snow acrossmuch of the MN portion of the area. The 00z ECMWF was farther tothe east with its surface low development. Confidence isincreasing that indeed there well may be secondary, strongersurface low development. Low end confidence on where thiseventually does develop and tracks however." 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Looks like the Canadian went well nw also. This could turn out too be a Dakota special yet if trends continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 The overnight Euro still looks good for many. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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