TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 You can’t interpret the long range ensemble means the same way each time. Its more a matter of looking for a strong cold signal in the long range... rather than saying it will be warm. I am not saying it will be warm. I am just saying there is no strong consensus for cold in the West over the next 2 weeks. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Definitely nothing very certain beyond day 5 at this point. Even though it was mostly sunny in Dublin today, the icy north wind nearly froze us to death on the walking tour. And, there are palm trees here. Kind of ridiculous considering the latitude. Couldn't help but think of some of you. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Definitely nothing very certain beyond day 5 at this point. Even though it was mostly sunny in Dublin today, the icy north wind nearly froze us to death on the walking tour. And, there are palm trees here. Kind of ridiculous considering the latitude. Couldn't help but think of some of you. Classic low solar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 FB_IMG_1573361461024.jpgNeat picture, circa? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Polar vortex. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 We don't want a strong jet if you want a cold winter.Lack of a strong jet means less likely chance for windstorms? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Lack of a strong jet means less likely chance for windstorms? Possibly... but it just takes the right set up even if its not the dominant pattern. And I think ENSO neutral years are more likely to have windstorms. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!! https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76a 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Classic low solar.Indeed. That's all anyone here wants to talk about. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!! https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76a He is reporting what the models show for December... even the projected snow level with those systems in early December. On November 11th. Might just be looking for clicks here? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 He is reporting what the models show for December... even the projected snow level with those systems in early December. On November 11th. Might just be looking for clicks here? Kind of what I was thinking. He also talked about “above normal rainfall the next 6 weeks”.I just don’t see anything but below normal- normal precipitation falling in the next few weeks given the current state of things over the pacific. You never know though, things can always unexpectedly happen like this February. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!! https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76a What a joke. The jet will probably retract in a week and we'll be back to drier than average conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!! https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76aThere’s nothing stable about the coming pattern, so I’m not sure what he’s seeing that could possibly persist for 6+ weeks. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Remember guys, this is Andrew’s uncle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 There’s nothing stable about the coming pattern, so I’m not sure what he’s seeing that could possibly persist for 6+ weeks. He even predicted specific snow amounts for Portland with these phantom systems way out into the future. Lowland snow amounts must be easy to predict. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Good news for the ledge jumpers. No correlation between November temps and the subsequent DJF anomaly in the PNW region. Interesting, Brian makes the best maps. My takeaway from that is out here we would want a warmer than normal November then. Fits what others have said in the past that we don't want to "score" too early. I'd like to see him create a map like that but for summer as well. How would May temperatures correlate to the JJA timeframe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Interesting, Brian makes the best maps. My takeaway from that is out here we would want a warmer than normal November then. Fits what others have said in the past that we don't want to "score" too early. I'd like him to see create a map like that but for summer as well. How would May temperatures correlate to the JJA timeframe?Actually, the takeaway should be that it doesn’t matter, since there’s no significant correlation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Rod Hill is the best ever. Period. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Interesting, Brian makes the best maps. My takeaway from that is out here we would want a warmer than normal November then. Fits what others have said in the past that we don't want to "score" too early. I'd like to see him create a map like that but for summer as well. How would May temperatures correlate to the JJA timeframe?Well there’s no significant correlation there, so it probably wouldn’t matter. In the East, there’s a positive correlation (as in, winter temps tend to mirror November temps) but again (FWIW) I’m not a believer in this stuff having much predictability. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 And for the heck of it, I personally looked at all Octobers back to the 1870s in DC and checked for a correlation to winter temperatures, and it turns out there’s actually a modest negative correlation here (cold Octobers tend to precede warm winters, and vice versa). Which doesn’t jive with the idea of a positive correlation in the west assuming our temperature tendencies are opposite, which I guess isn’t always true. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 12Z EPS still does not show a cold signal... even in the long range. But the 15-day precip anomaly is not as extremely dry now... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!! https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76aYikes! Cat’s out of the bag... I AM ROD HILL. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Interesting, Brian makes the best maps. My takeaway from that is out here we would want a warmer than normal November then. Fits what others have said in the past that we don't want to "score" too early. I'd like to see him create a map like that but for summer as well. How would May temperatures correlate to the JJA timeframe?There are different reasons why November could be warm. An active, pineapple express pattern with copious rain. A huge ridge of high pressure leading to warm days. Maybe a better correlation could be found using 500 mb patterns instead temperatures. Probably not, but temperatures by themselves don't tell us much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 I admit I’m getting excited about -NAO potential later this month..could end up being the more dominant block versus the -EPO for a time, until the cold hammer drops, likely towards the Holidays). Reminds me a little bit of last February’s pattern, though the way we’ll progress into this one will be slower/quasi-inverted. Even if December isn’t a “cold” month in the PNW, these tendencies will be priming the system state favorably with time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Interesting, Brian makes the best maps. My takeaway from that is out here we would want a warmer than normal November then. Fits what others have said in the past that we don't want to "score" too early. I'd like to see him create a map like that but for summer as well. How would May temperatures correlate to the JJA timeframe? Score early and score often. Never miss a chance to score. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 61 and partly sunny here... nice day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 BTW, I don’t mean excited for my backyard. I mean about the pattern in general..blocking of any kind turns me on. It looks “meh” on some of the modeling right now but that should change in due time. All of the precursors for polar blocking I look for (Scandinavian ridge, NW Pacific Low, activation of MJO after pseudo/dormancy, E-IO subsidence, and the poleward propagation of -AAM) are all present. Nothing is guarunteed, but this is the time I’d be resting up and catching up on my zzz’s before 24/7 model riding time. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 I would take a November snow storm for the lowlands in a heart beat. In the PNW lowlands you take it when you can get it. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 I would take a November snow storm for the lowlands in a heart beat. In the PNW lowlands you take it when you can get it. Agreed but I'd prefer it hold off til closer to Thanksgiving as earlier events tend to be more Washington-based like 2006 and 2017. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 I’m surprised Tim hasn’t posted the EPS control run yet. Looks like something he’d draw up in his wildest fantasies. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 I’m surprised Tim hasn’t posted the EPS control run yet. Looks like something he’d draw up in his wildest fantasies. I don't look at the control run. And would not post it unless we are looking at something historic and it agrees... like last February. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 I’m predicting it now...A White Thanksgiving for everyone one mile north of PuyallupJon up thru BC. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Need a good blow to finish these leaves off. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 Need a good blow to finish these leaves off.Our Japanese Maple is hanging on for dear life... need just a little wind. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 I’m predicting it now...A White Thanksgiving for everyone one mile north of PuyallupJon up thru BC.You're sick man, I love it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 There is actually a bit of a negative correlation in the PNW from what I have discovered. The big exception to that is if November is cold after a cold October.Well there’s no significant correlation there, so it probably wouldn’t matter. In the East, there’s a positive correlation (as in, winter temps tend to mirror November temps) but again (FWIW) I’m not a believer in this stuff having much predictability.Hmmm, maybe the key then is to have both October and November be cold. Here is another post he tweeted about on the subject. Again this is all speculative but maybe there is something there. Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49 Pearson's correlation coefficient of Oct-Nov temps and Dec-Feb temps using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (detrended). Orange colors (>+0.2) are positive relationships; i.e., warm Oct-Nov is somewhat correlated to warm Dec-Feb and cold Oct-Nov is somewhat correlated to cold Dec-Feb. https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1193696829860302848 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 SEA up to 60... and 62 at PDX. 62 here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted November 11, 2019 Report Share Posted November 11, 2019 I used a leaf blower yesterday to assist in the final leaves to the ground on our lilac tree. Cottonwoods are still hanging in there. So much better having dry leaves as opposed to the slimy mess they usually are. Ridiculously warm in McMinnville right now. 63f at the airport but the lack of wind and bright sunshine has it feeling like summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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