jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z NAM to Monday evening Edit- Still wants to put the heaviest 1/2 cnty south of foreign models. Good test shaping up here.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z NAM to Monday evening 20191110 12z nam MI_Snowfall to h36.pngBeautiful map amigo! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 IWX .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)Issued at 511 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2019Taste of winter arrives with a vengeance at the start of theperiod as large scale ascent expands across the entire forecastarea Monday morning in response to strong fgen forcing as 140+ ktjet streak screams overhead. Period of good alignment with DGZ andbest lift, to bring period of light snow to everyone, initially Nhalf or so in the morning and then shifting SE for the afternoon.Have increased QPF somewhat, resulting in slightly higher snowfalltotals with most locations now likely to see a solid 2 inches ofsnow, with higher amounts possible both where best FGEN forcingfinally sets up (models still varying on this). In addition, lakeenhancement will be occurring across Berrien and LaPorte countieswith some potential for advisory level conditions by afternoon.Eventually, lake effect will take over in the NW areas withtransition to more northerly flow through the day and eventuallyNW as we get into Monday night and Tuesday. Not going to go intomajor specifics that have been discussed the past several days,but inversion heights to 10K feet and extreme instability will allset the stage for increased threat for sig lake effect snow.Travel conditions look to be impacted Monday night into Tuesdayfor at least Berrien and Cass counties in Michigan, likelyextending SE into portions of northern Indiana. Exact positioningand duration of any bands remains a challenge. However, after muchinternal and external collaboration opted to hoist a Winter StormWatch for Berrien and Cass counties starting at 12Z Monday. Starttime for this was difficult to determine with light snow likelyongoing across the area Sunday night into Monday, but greatestimpacts more late Monday into Tuesday. Winter weather advisoriesand quite possibly Winter Storm Warnings will be needed in laterforecasts. Kept confined to these 2 counties where we haveconsistently messaged that snow amounts of 6 to 8 inches werepossible. Guaranteed changes will be coming in later forecasts.While lake effect will be starting to wind down Tuesday, stillwill be impacts in the morning so kept things simple with watchand ended at 00Z Weds.While lake effect will be a big deal, can`t forget the very coldmid November temps expected with highs Tuesday and now also intoWeds staying in the 20s and overnight lows in the single digitsand teens. One thing to note with temps is several models tryingto trend even colder with highs Tues (upper teens to low 20s atbest). Given expected snowpack and strength of the CAA can`t rulethis out.Only a glance at forecast beyond 00Z Weds, but still showing weaksystem passing by to the north with chc of light snow andlittle/no impacts. Some moderation in temps will commence byThursday with finally above freezing levels noted. However, run atcloser to normal temps looking less likely. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 LOL, you know GRR ain't going there no matter how many model runs trend wetter/deeper..DTX perhaps, but I'm sure these coordination calls with GRR will tamper enthusiasm for getting proper treatment with this system. It's super early, first real snow for most, and will be a rather dramatic flip to wintry conditions from this weekend's pleasant wx. Idk amigo, I just hope they don't disregard the ingredients coming together w this storm and instead, stick to the time of the year we are currently at and base it on that. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 IWXSome moderation in temps will commence byThursday with finally above freezing levels noted. However, run atcloser to normal temps looking less likely. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z NAM total qpf trends....whoops??? It's conceivable this system will trend even wetter the way things are going. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Why does it matter if you are under a winter storm warning or advisory? I don’t get it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Clinton- What is your status w this storm? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 This may be turning out to be a surprise I-80 special the way things are going...could our NE peeps also get involved??? That'd be pretty awesome for our Sub to get more people involved. #sharethewealth 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Gotta like the NAM the way it is ticking up those snow totals again in SEMI 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 LOL, you know GRR ain't going there no matter how many model runs trend wetter/deeper..DTX perhaps, but I'm sure these coordination calls with GRR will tamper enthusiasm for getting proper treatment with this system. It's super early, first real snow for most, and will be a rather dramatic flip to wintry conditions from this weekend's pleasant wx. "high-end advisory"?..for over a foot of snow We willlikely also need a high end advisory for the lake shore Mondayinto Tuesday with the focus mostly Monday night into Tuesday asnorthwest to north winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts resultin a dominant lake snow band that will only very slowly shifttoward the east. The heaviest snow will be over the Big and LittleSable points and extreme western Allegan and Van Buren Counties. Icould see isolated location in extreme western Van Buren countygetting over a foot of snow. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Why does it matter if you are under a winter storm warning or advisory? I don’t get it... Why is there a difference between just a Wind Advisory, and a High Wind Warning? What don't you get about "scale of impacts"? For me personally, it's also about the gov professionals that cover my region doing as good a job as possible wrt matching headlines to conditions. At which, they blow chunks way more often then they get it right. Not to mention, if it's only hitting their bottom tier of counties and not their immediate vicinity, they bias against more robust outcomes, and down-play legit impacts away from their little corner of the CWA. I can see other offices' performance with any given event to measure them against, so it's not like I'm being critical in a vacuum. And I'm hardly alone in my opinion wrt this. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 This may be turning out to be a surprise I-80 special the way things are going...could our NE peeps also get involved??? That'd be pretty awesome for our Sub to get more people involved. #sharethewealth Man buddy, and you called it! Hat's off to ya on your LR and LRC efforts. You could market that to somebody, I know you could. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Even the central/western Iowa folks may end up with a nice surprise. This is looking pretty darn good for Cedar Rapids. A couple days ago most models had dried up completely. 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z NAM total qpf trends....whoops??? It's conceivable this system will trend even wetter the way things are going. Better late to the party then missing it completely, eh? haha. So, what's with the 12k having that nice broad swath of qpf/snowfall totals across SMI while the 3k has a much narrower band? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 @ Tom It's conceivable this system will trend even wetter the way things are going. =) Was thinking how over the years, these temporary relaxing then resurgence of arctic masses have led to some of the more historic storms. That window opens just long enough for organization and Wham! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Some moderation in temps will commence byThursday with finally above freezing levels noted. However, run atcloser to normal temps looking less likely. Haha, you noticed that as well. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Haha, you noticed that as well. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Another peek at the 6z HRDPS. Really moist for most of SMI Even the 10:1 snow map's eye candy 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z ICON 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Clinton- What is your status w this storm?Things are looking better that I may see an inch or maybe a tad more. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 I like the trend of 2-3 inches but still have to see to believe. But congrats on those around the lakes. Looking super juicy for lake effect snow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Things are looking better that I may see an inch or maybe a tad more.There ya go bud. Also, this storm is trending wetter and wetter, so, do not be surprised if your totals are upped later this afternoon or sooner. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z ICON 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Another peek at the 6z HRDPS. Really moist for most of SMI 20191110 6z HRDPS_qpf to h48.png Even the 10:1 snow map's eye candy 20191110 6z HRDPS_10to1_Snowfall to h48.pngSuperb amigo!!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Hey guys! Haven’t been following this closely until today. This is a mostly tonight/tomorrow morning event, correct? 2 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Hey guys! Haven’t been following this closely until today. This is a mostly tonight/tomorrow morning event, correct?Glad to see you back! Yup, it’s primarily and overnight event from about midnight till Noon but the worst of it looks to hit around rush hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z GFS I'm hanging by a thread lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z GFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z RDPS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 The SREF Plumes have doubled the snowfall from previous run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 This will be a stunner of a front for November. The National Weather Service is predicting that about 250 cold records will be established from the impact of this front. Wow. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z Canadian 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 This will be a stunner of a front for November. The National Weather Service is predicting that about 250 cold records will be established from the impact of this front. Wow.What is this like the 3rd Blue Norther of the Autumn? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Best thing to do would be throw out the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Not sure what you mean. Latest HRDPS seems to give you about the same as thereI'm talking about runs that keep the highest totals just North of the state line. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 The HRRR is finally catching up to the other models.... now has 0.30" in Cedar Rapids with a few hours of snow to go. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 High Rez models generally painting 2-6" across IA/IL/IN with higher potential over into MI.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 This escalated quickly. Last I looked yesterday, Cedar Rapids was expecting an inch or less of snow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 10, 2019 Report Share Posted November 10, 2019 Ikr, 6z HRDPS ups the amts further. Gets me to 7"/8" Kuchera. This is the way storms should always trend! IF ONLY 20191110 6z HRDPS_Snowfall to h48.png Gotta like the NAM the way it is ticking up those snow totals again in SEMI If and that is always a big if,,,this plays out as some of the models are hinting at it would be very similar to the November 2nd to 3rd storm of 1966. And if so it would be a near record snow fall (one storm) record for much of southern lower Michigan for a November snow storm. I do not base any snow fall productions on just looking at a model map but we shall see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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