Niko Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Everyone talking about a big rain storm after Christmas. Hard to get excited about a big storm 8-10 days away with temps in the 40's. But I guess that's all there is right now. Yep, pretty quiet weatherwise. Although, yesterday I did see a very, very, veryyyyyyy old snowpile in one of the pkg-lots. I was shocked to see it still there. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Yep, pretty quiet weatherwise. Although, yesterday I did see a very, very, veryyyyyyy old snowpile in one of the pkg-lots. I was shocked to see it still there.We have some of the same piles here from our pre Thanksgiving storm. The piles are as hard as a rock, as I walk past them in our school parking lot daily. They will survive and hopefully will be added to in the weeks to come 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 We have some of the same piles here from our pre Thanksgiving storm. The piles are as hard as a rock, as I walk past them in our school parking lot daily. They will survive and hopefully will be added to in the weeks to comeI can see these piles being there for quite sometimes, until we get a real warmup come late Spring. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Highs should push 40F here Saturday, Sunday and Monday. But dew points don’t appear to get very high at all. Mid 20F. That should prevent much of the snowpack from melting, especially with the very low sun angle. It’s gonna look like Christmas but feel like March. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 The fight between the Euro & GFS in terms of the MJO will have big implications for next weeks storm system. Over the last couple runs, the Euro is backing off Phase 6 and mainly staying in the "Null" phase while the GFS says Phase 6 all day. If the Euro is right, we won't see to much ridging in the East and allow for a "bowling ball" system to track slowly east across the Central CONUS. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 if you like rain, you'll love the 12z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Yep, a lot of flopping around in the extended. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 The 12Z GFS multiple snowstorms for the Central Plains have disappeared like a cheeseburger off the grill in our house. Hard to believe from the 12Z GFS yesterday till today there can be this big of a change. We'll see if it comes back or not. If it disappears from the 12Z Euro today, I'll assume our holidays will be quiet in the part of the country.Good case of the GFS being well... the GFS 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Someone call up the do nothing Democrats and get that thing fixed ASAP!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 I'm only missing 20" of snow from yesterday's 12Z GFS run until today's. Boy GFS, I could make these bad predictions and I'm not a meteorologist. We're talking about forecasts 8-10 days out. To me you should expect changes sometimes drastic from run to run. But the second there's a change on a GFS model run, than everyone starts saying the GFS is wrong or horrible, etc. The GFS also runs 4x a day. so we could see more variances between runs.When the Euro loses the storm everyone says, well I guess there's not going to be a storm now. I think we all show our bias towards winter storms every time that happens. There's still a storm on the GFS, it's just not phased or as strong. It actually strengthens east of us/and there's not enough cold air with the system.Heck even yesterday Clinton showed how one of the indexes was the complete opposite between the Euro and the GFS. The GFS was the one we all want for cold and the Euro was the opposite. Now today the Euro switched to negative like the GFS, so I guess the GFS was the right one then(unless the index switches again tomorrow)? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Someone call up the do nothing Democrats and get that thing fixed ASAP!!Mitch would just stop the bill from being passed anyway. There's only 300 of them sitting on his desk. Now if there was a Russian weather model that needed fixed, than that would be sent through right away for a quick signature. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Does it bug anyone else when a tv meteorologist says, "Temperatures will be 15-20º above where they should be"? The average temp is just that.... the average. Wild temp swings are normal, especially this time of year. It can easily be 45º and just as easily be 15º in late December. There is no such thing as a "should be" temp. I cringe when I hear that. Even Jim Cantore said that this morning. 9 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 The fight between the Euro & GFS in terms of the MJO will have big implications for next weeks storm system. Over the last couple runs, the Euro is backing off Phase 6 and mainly staying in the "Null" phase while the GFS says Phase 6 all day. If the Euro is right, we won't see to much ridging in the East and allow for a "bowling ball" system to track slowly east across the Central CONUS. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif I don't know about you, but it seems like it has been ages where I can go out and do some last minute Christmas shopping while it's snowing or at least have snow OTG. You sorta loose that "holiday spirit" without the snow. Oh buddy! I've been thinking about how fortunate I was to get this week's nice hit of snow. It's really boosted my holiday cheer-o-meter. I also thought about you and how you've been missed even worse with nada around Chicago Land currently. There's some fresh parking lot piles upwards of 8+ feet that will be around a while despite day time highs soaring. I'd even go so far as to say that this surprise LES event saved my wx sanity, lol. Anyways, pretty sure you will get hit in due time. Just got to keep hope alive a bit longer. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 12z GFS ensembles look snowier for the most part through the end of the year. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Yep, pretty quiet weatherwise. Although, yesterday I did see a very, very, veryyyyyyy old snowpile in one of the pkg-lots. I was shocked to see it still there. There's still some surviving around Jackson too. Not sure about Marshall. If they were there, the Tuesday night's snow was plowed on top of them and they look nice and fresh again. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 The Canadian is flopping around, too. This run continues the boring split flow into the new year. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 As East Dubzz and I have said since November, bring on January. 2 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 And now the op Euro decides to park the energy in the sw US at the end of the year. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 12z Euro hits Chicago and Meeeshigan. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Basically no consistency at this point. But most models still showing something. So nothing else to do now, but wait a few more days and see where things look then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 In a few days the models will still have the next ‘storm’ at hour 240+ ... This split flow regime needs to die. I’d rather have a northwest flow than this. A 2” clipper would be exciting at this point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 12z Euro hits Chicago and Meeeshigan.Thanks for posting this Clinton. I'll accept this. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 There's still some surviving around Jackson too. Not sure about Marshall. If they were there, the Tuesday night's snow was plowed on top of them and they look nice and fresh again. Tis the season amigo ehh! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Currently at 31F under cloudy skies w a flurry or two flying around. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 12z Euro hits Chicago and Meeeshigan.Well if I'm going to ride a model 10 days out, might as well be the Euro! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Lots of things to share from the EC. 2 big storms on this run that fit the LRC (exact track still TBD) with enough cold air to produce big snows. The first big storm shows up on the 29th as a cutter that gets blocked up and smashes Nebraska then turns east.It leaves this for accumulations.2nd storm shows up on Jan3. It takes a bowling ball path across the central and southern plains.It leaves this for accumulations. I think this would be the first snow for Oklahoma.And at long last it has the Artic air that I have been looking for, even if it is 4 days late lol. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 12z Euro hits Chicago and Meeeshigan. Hey Niko. Maybe we get one? Tbh, I see Clinton's Euro ENS maps and can't help but feel storm #1 hits just north, and storm #2 looks just like the suppressed event last week that whiffed south. Confidence in this winter delivering big storms here is not strong. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Hey Niko. Maybe we get one? Tbh, I see Clinton's Euro ENS maps and can't help but feel storm #1 hits just north, and storm #2 looks just like the suppressed event last week that whiffed south. Confidence in this winter delivering big storms here is not strong. Hope so amigo...its only a matter of time till Winter strikes again. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 tracks not set but looking at one to the north and one to the south. Glad we had the Halloween storm! Yup. Big storms are AWOL thru the middle of our Sub. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Hope so amigo...its only a matter of time till Winter strikes again. Winter struck here this week. But it would be nice to get in on all the "big storms" that we're constantly hearing/talking about.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Nice week of action...out west in the "rare" western trough 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 you can throw that garbage away and never bring it back to the table! It’s getting old Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Lots of things to share from the EC. 2 big storms on this run that fit the LRC (exact track still TBD) with enough cold air to produce big snows. The first big storm shows up on the 29th as a cutter that gets blocked up and smashes Nebraska then turns east.It leaves this for accumulations.2nd storm shows up on Jan3. It takes a bowling ball path across the central and southern plains.It leaves this for accumulations. I think this would be the first snow for Oklahoma.And at long last it has the Artic air that I have been looking for, even if it is 4 days late lol. cold air that far south I don’t think so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 KC is under a WWPA..... Warm Weather Pattern Alert I think I might mow next week 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Nothing worse then melting snow in Dec...4 days after 3-8 inches fell across KC, we can’t really tell it snowed. Darn it! Come on Jan-Mar.....you were good earlier this year in a big way. 13 events in KC from Jan. 12th to March 5th. $$$$$$$$$$$ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Lots of things to share from the EC. 2 big storms on this run that fit the LRC (exact track still TBD) with enough cold air to produce big snows. The first big storm shows up on the 29th as a cutter that gets blocked up and smashes Nebraska then turns east.It leaves this for accumulations.2nd storm shows up on Jan3. It takes a bowling ball path across the central and southern plains.It leaves this for accumulations. I think this would be the first snow for Oklahoma.And at long last it has the Artic air that I have been looking for, even if it is 4 days late lol.Thank you, Clinton, for keeping me in the loop up there buddy! Always greatly appreciated. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Thank you, Clinton, for keeping me in the loop up there buddy! Always greatly appreciated.Us southern folk have to stick together lol! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 20, 2019 Report Share Posted December 20, 2019 Please, Lord....make this colder and snowier. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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