Phil Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Tell that to Feb 1989. No doubt this thing has super potential to go good for us. Earlier runs tapped into the cold and dumped into the East. This run some of it makes it down this way.Remember, that was driven by a huge SSW under Niña/+QBO boundary conditions. In which case you’re almost certain to score in some form or another. A major SSW could theoretically release the TPV and unload that cold over you assuming a favorable wavetrain. But otherwise, the vortex up there needs to be weakened and dislodged. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 So what Phil is saying is that the cold air up there needs to come down here. Amazing analysis. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 12z GEFS long range is looking very promising. This progression is what we want to see and follows both the 00z EPS/Control run. Hmmm... Here we go!!!! Day 10-16 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 12z GEFS long range is looking very promising. This progression is what we want to see and follows both the 00z EPS/Control run. Hmmm... Here we go!!!! Day 10-16floop-gefs-2019122212.500h_anom.na(3).gif Glad to see you back. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 It’s December 22nd. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Classic! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Bombshell Sunday! When Matt has a one liner post it might just be sarcasm...Phil says no to anything good for us happening anytime soon, the opposite of a few years ago which should work in our favor...And Domes imaginary friend is now on vacation...Exciting stuff! 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 HUGE change in the EPS tonight. It holds the cold in AK instead of dumping into the Eastern US. At the same time a ridge slowly amplifies over the GOA and forces below normal heights to sag much further West than previous runs. Yes!This is the 850mb temp anomaly map for the control model. That actually shows the AK cold dropping toward us and already here to some extent. The change in the mean was pretty dramatic so it's pretty exciting.Yeah, great 00z EURO EPS run last night. Especially the control run. That's a ton of Vodka Arctic air in BC! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Yep. BIG improvement in fact. Block/positive anomaly is further west in the sweet spot. The cold isn't dumping out off Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska. Heights in BC/AB dramatically lower than previous runs. No deep trough carving out over the eastern half of the country. There is some amplification noted with the block, we just need more of it and tilt. Of course a southeast ridge always helps. Interesting how the Day 11-15 EPS mean and Control run are mirroring each other. My optimism is building. Hoping to see the 12z and 00z EURO runs today continue this improvement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Going forward the thing to watch for at the very end of the month is going to be how flat or amplified the ridge just off the coast ends up being depicted on the models. A flatter ridge can more easily lead to a good outcome as upstream high pressure cells can more easily piggy back onto the flat ridge. We want that cold air in AK to remain until a GOA ridge can amplify enough to drive it toward us.Yeah, good analysis. All about timing it right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 12z GEM is worlds better than the GFS Op and much improved from previous runs. The blocks sets up further west and isn't being shoved eastward. Heights crashing southward in BC/AB. Hmmm.... Day 6-10 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 2.15" for the event. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 12z GEFS long range is looking very promising. This progression is what we want to see and follows both the 00z EPS/Control run. Hmmm... Here we go!!!! Day 10-16floop-gefs-2019122212.500h_anom.na(3).gifLooks primed for retrogression. Let's go!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 2.15" for the event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 2.15" for the event.That’s pretty decent. Pretty similar amount up here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Big Euro run. Strap in guys. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 That GOA ridge looks too progressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 That GOA ridge looks too progressive. Luckily the whole pattern "locked in" last Monday and we are guaranteed cold and snow very soon. I want access to those super-secret and all-knowing models. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 That GOA ridge looks too progressive. My friend from NASA is on vacation to January 12 and says it's cold and dense there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Luckily the whole pattern "locked in" last Monday and we are guaranteed cold and snow very soon. I want access to those super-secret and all-knowing models.Actually the “Lock-In” happened on Thursday. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Does anyone else actually feel kind of sad for him? Maybe it’s just because it’s close to Xmas... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Does anyone else actually feel kind of sad for him? Maybe it’s just because it’s close to Xmas...I’m probably done picking on him. It’s too easy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 12z Canadian Ensembles MASSIVE improvement tantalizingly close to dropping the arctic hammer on us. I'm trying to upload the Day 9-16 loop but it's not letting me. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 12z ECMWF Day 6-8 I don't hate this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 That GOA ridge looks too progressive. This would be a good time to hear more from that email boyo palo buddy. January might be drier than December. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Yes, 65 at Timberline, 34 in Portland, dense. Here we go. I've been waiting for the snowfall forecast. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Now closing in on the space age record for consecutive spotless days with 39..record is 42 back in 1996 so we just need to make it 3 more days to tie, and 4 more to set a new space age record. Next longest (pre-space age) streaks are 43, back in 1912, and 45, back in 1878. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Only up to 44 at PDX... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 The 1912/1913, 1901/1902, 1878/1879, and 1855/1856 solar minimums had some insane spotless streaks. And it’s not due to differences in instrument quality, since modern measurements are calibrated to preserve homogeneity with older data. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Really tough not to be excited about the models today. I’m thinking if all goes the way we would like we will be happy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Some encouraging trends with the 12z EURO Op, GEM Op, GEFS, CMCE. Let's keep this going and see timing move ahead. C'MON!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 It just keeps trending more and more in the proper direction.... Yesterday (1500) snow level. Now 500-1000!!!!! Think Slush************* .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A weak upper trough willbe over the area Wednesday and Thursday. It looks largely dry butensembles suggest spotty light precipitation cannot be entirelyruled out. Snow levels will be fairly low and there might be somechunky rain over hills above 500-1000 feet in the the earlymorning hours. No snow accumulations are expected for now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 I’m probably done picking on him. It’s too easy. I dunno if you lash out at people a bunch for analyzing any sort of medium to long term model analysis on an actual weather forum and then start a shtick that is either directly hypocritical or just an extremely boring slow troll then you probably deserve people ripping on you for a while during slow weather. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Pretty interesting analogs from the 12z run. Jan 1989, Jan 1963, late Dec 1953, and some other good ones. A large number of La Nina analogs as well as some El Nino. Interesting mix. Let's not forget we have several days of solidly chilly weather in the short term to enjoy also. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 I dunno if you lash out at people a bunch for analyzing any sort of medium to long term model analysis on an actual weather forum and then start a shtick that is either directly hypocritical or just an extremely boring slow troll then you probably deserve people ripping on you for a while during slow weather. IDK what you're talking about-- I get emails from my HAARP/Kremlin contact and he's 150% real, I promise. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 The 1912/1913, 1901/1902, 1878/1879, and 1855/1856 solar minimums had some insane spotless streaks. And it’s not due to differences in instrument quality, since modern measurements are calibrated to preserve homogeneity with older data. Good point. I have noticed one site referencing some tiny spots that last for less than a day. Those aren't officially counted because of the reasons you cite. At any rate this solar min has been exceptional. As far as smoothed data it would appear this is the deepest back to minimum we have had since the Dalton min. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 The WRF is showing a good hard frost Christmas night and the next night. It's going to be a nippy week. I'm glad we got the heavy rain out of the way when we did. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 12z WRF 4km Sounding PDX This looks real interesting on Christmas Eve morning. 10 AM. That's really close to a snow sounding! Not a lot of moisture, but hmmm! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Now closing in on the space age record for consecutive spotless days with 39..record is 42 back in 1996 so we just need to make it 3 more days to tie, and 4 more to set a new space age record. Next longest (pre-space age) streaks are 43, back in 1912, and 45, back in 1878.Nice. We had a butt load of snow in 1996 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 22, 2019 Report Share Posted December 22, 2019 Things are finally starting to look up! DJ and Jim are back, and Jake is feeling it as well!! Currently 39 with a few peeks of the sun. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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